The wait is close to over. After Tuesday’s position draw, the “fastest two minutes in sports” is finally here. The Kentucky Derby, after some key detours in recent weeks, is expected to have a full field of 20 entrants.
NBC will televise live coverage of the 147th Kentucky Derby on Saturday.
In recent weeks, the race has lost top contenders: Caddo River, Concert Tour, Life Is Good, and Greatest Honor. The prestigious race will be undefeated Essential quality for coach Brad Cox, who has been inducted as the morning line favorite.
The race has drawn a solid field of three-year-olds led by Essential quality (2/1) who comes in as a strong favorite, but will have to navigate a clean stalking trip from the outside after drawing the No. 14 post, which considers the speed drawn inward.
The two biggest losers of the Derby draw were easily Todd Pletcher. Known Agenda (6/1) drawing the dreaded railing, and Chad Brown’s Highly motivated (1/10) drawing of post No. 17. No horse in the history of the race has ever won out of post No. 17. Javier Castellano is expected to try to send it hard from the beginning, seeking to avoid any possible traffic. matters. History also shows that we have to go back to 1986 to find Ferdinand as the last winner from the No. 1 position.
On the other hand, the participants who benefited the most from the draw were Bob Baffert. Spirit of Medina (1/15) who drew No. 8, Brad Cox Mandaloun (1/15) who drew No. 7, and Doug O’Neil’s Hot rod charlie (8/1) who drew the No. 9 spot. Medina Spirit and Hot Rod Charlie could very well duel for the starting lead, which perfectly suits their racing styles drawing in these spaces.
Kentucky Derby Betting Angles / Trends:
- Top coaches Bob Baffert, Doug O’Neill and Todd Pletcher have saddled the last 11 Kentucky Derby winners. If you want to follow that angle, here are your options for this year: Known Agenda, Hot Rod Charlie, Medina Spirit, Dynamic One, Bourbonic and Sainthood.
- The postseason favorite has won six of the last eight Kentucky Derby races and that honor will likely go to Essential Quality on Saturday.
THE RHYTHM MAKES THE RACE: PREFERRED RUNNING STYLES
The pace of the race was greatly affected when Caddo River was forced to withdraw from the race due to a fever. His departure has opened the discussion about who will be able to take the lead and become the trailblazer. On paper, following the draw, Hot rod charlie, Spirit of Medina, Y Midnight bourbon (20/1) seem to be the contenders most likely to compete for that spot. Dominate your world (5/1) and Soup and Sandwich It is very likely that (30/1) will be compromised by their post position by getting the early lead they want in the first turn.
The question then becomes Essential quality, Dominate your world, Y Highly motivated Shoot clean and fast enough from your outside posts to achieve your preferred stalking running styles and not get pulled too far behind starting speed?
Who will cross the finish line first? Let’s take a look at the odds and dive into this race.
Kentucky Derby (G1)
Track: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky
Date: Saturday, May 1, 2021
Purse: $ 3,000,000
Distance: 1 ¼ mile, dirt
Post time: 6:57 pm EST / 3:57 PST
2021 Kentucky Derby Horses of Note
Listings by publication number, name and probabilities:
# 8 Spirit of Medina (1/15) – With Concert Tour and Life is Good outside of the Derby, bettors are now left with Medina Spirit as Bob Baffert’s shot at another Kentucky Derby win. Baffert, who has six career wins at Run for the Roses, won three of the last five races with American Pharaoh in 2015, Justify in 2018 and Authentic last year. On paper, this son of Clever John Velazquez is likely to lead him, who will seek to be among the top flight from the opening door. We could be facing a repeat of last year with a horse that has run first or second in all five races of his career. Top choice
# 14 Essential quality (2/1) – This son of Touch it, who won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile when he was two years old, enters the race with victories at the Southwest Stakes and Blue Grass Stakes. Brad Cox’s strongest chance of earning his first Kentucky Derby victory is with an undefeated colt that is 5 of 5 in his career. The news that Mattress Mack will bet $ 2 million on him makes Essential Quality a game against me in the first place as I look for value in a field of 20. Beneath, lack of courage
#fifteen Dominate your world (5/1) – John Sadler has done a great job with this colt as evidenced by his impressive victory in the Santa Anita Derby. His victory in that Grade 1 followed two victories earlier this year at Santa Anita. This son of Candy walkHe’ll need a clean break, but the one thing we all need to take note of is jockey Joel Rosario jumping out of Hot Rod Charlie in favor of Rock Your World. That’s extremely revealing with horses ranking so close at the top. Threat
# 9 Hot rod charlie (8/1) – Coach Doug O’Neill, who won the Kentucky Derby with I’ll Have Another (2012) and Nyquist (2016), is back in 2021 with Hot Rod Charlie. The son of Oxbow he was last seen winning the Louisiana Derby on March 20. Although he surprised a lot of people when he finished second behind Essential Quality in the Breeders Juvenile Cup with odds of 94/1, I can’t imagine him pulling off the surprise at the Kentucky Derby. My initial inclination was that you might have a hard time hitting the board, but after drawing so favorably, you have a good chance of getting a piece. Contender
# 10 Midnight bourbon (20/1) – This son of Tiznow He looked great in his victory at the Lecomte Stakes and is as consistent as they come to the board in all seven races of his career. Coach Steve Asmussen adds Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith to the irons for the Kentucky Derby. Smith, as we know, has found the winner’s circle twice in his career at the Kentucky Derby. This colt seems to always be up to the task and is not a horse that punters should easily search for to throw away any trifecta or superfecta bill. Longshot value
# 17 Highly motivated (10/1) – Chad Brown entry, for In mischief, was last seen losing by “a neck” to undefeated Essential Quality in the Blue Grass Stakes. Highly Motivated elevates my interest as a play of value that could hit the board. If jockey Javier Castellano can navigate from a poor post position to a comfortable stalking spot in the middle of the pack, Highly Motivated could easily do so six times in a row by successfully hitting the board in his career. Use
#sixteen King fury (20/1) – Following all the deviations of those in front of him on the points leaderboard, Ken McPeek finds his colt King Fury entering the 2021 Kentucky Derby. Curlin He looked impressive in his 18/1 win at the Lexington Stakes and also recorded two of his three career wins on the Churchill Downs surface. King Fury is easily my favorite pump option to use on all exotic entrances. Top Moonshot
Kentucky Derby Formula Ranking
- # 8 Spirit of Medina
- # 14 Essential quality
- # 15 Rock Your World
- # 9 Hot Rod Charlie
- # 10 Midnight Bourbon
- # 17 highly motivated
- # 11 dynamic
- # 16 King Fury
- # 7 Mandaloun
# 8 Spirit of Medina
# 14 Essential quality
# 15 Rock Your World
# 9 Hot Rod Charlie
EXOTIC SLOT POTENTIAL
# 11 Dynamic One **
# 17 highly motivated
# 10 Midnight Bourbon *
# 16 King Fury **
# 7 Mandaloun
* Top Longshot
** Top Moonshots
IN NUMBERS: BALANCE TOP SPEED FIGURES
Kentucky Derby betting breakdown
Frankie Taddeo, SI / Vegas Insider Gaming & Fantasy Analyst (@Frankie_Fantasy)
This race will come down to whether Essential Quality can make it a perfect 6-for-6 with short odds. I just can’t back it up in the first place with the expected short odds on my biggest bets.
My best move is # 8 Spirit of Medina (1/15) who will I wear with # 14 Essential quality (2/1) and # 15 Dominate your world (5/1). In trifecta and superfecta plays I will use longshots # 16 King fury (20/1) and # 10 Midnight bourbon (1/20) as my best risky chances looking to spice up payouts as well as # 9 Hot rod charlie (8/1). Due to his rails draw, I’ll be fading the number 1 known schedule (6/1, despite being extremely high with him before the draw.
TOP EXACT BOX: 8-14-15-9-10-17
COST: $ 1 bet: $ 30
TOP Exacta part wheel: 8 / 7,9,10,11,14,15,16,17
COST: $ 1 bet: $ 8
TOP Trifecta Part-Wheel: 8 with 14,15 with 7,8,9,10,11,14,15,16,17
COST: $ 1 bet: $ 14
DEEP Trifecta Part-Wheel: 8 with 9,10,11,14,15,16,17 with 7,9,10,11,14,15,16,17
COST: Bet of 50 cents: $ 24.50
TOP Trifecta SPREAD Partial Wheel: 9,14,15 / 8,9,14,15, / 7,8,9,10,11,14,15,16,17
COST: $ 50 cent bet: $ 31.50
WIN BETS: # 8 Medina Spirit, # 16 King Fury, # 11 Dynamic One and # 10 Midnight Bourbon (ONLY with double digit odds)
* You can look to add Hot Rod Charlie or Known Agenda with odds of 10/1 or higher in the post *
All bets show the cost of the ticket. All bettors must adjust the amounts of the bets based on the budget.
Destin Heath, trainer at Winstar Farms, Versailles, KY (@ dgheat02)
“I would have said that Essential Quality was insured to win, but I didn’t like his last ones as well as his draw was from so much speed. Mandaloun has really performed very well before the Derby and offers solid value with double digit odds. Out of Coach Todd Pletcher’s four, he would give Sainthood the thumbs up on Known Agenda based on his recent work at Churchill Downs, as well as the unfortunate train giveaway. Overall, I’m intrigued by Doug O’Neill’s Hot Rod Charlie, who shoots steadily, as well as Rock Your World, who really loved the land his first time on the surface. “
# 9 Hot Rod Charlie (August 1)
# 15 Rock Your World (5/1)
# 10 Midnight Bourbon (1/20)
# 7 Mandaloun (1/15)
Eddie is an Australian news reporter with over 9 years in the industry and has published on Forbes and tech crunch.