No matter how many draft drills are conducted before an actual NFL draft enters the clock, it is impossible to predict all the trades that will occur in the first round.
The Dolphins made recent moves with the 49ers and Eagles that have already shaken up the order this year. Last year, the Buccaneeers, Chargers, 49ers and Packers all rose at certain points between No. 13 and 30 overall during the draft, while the 49ers, Patriots, Vikings and Dolphins all fell.
When a team changes, they are not locked into a particular player in their starting pick and would rather increase their volume of picks. When a team changes, he is targeting a specific player who does not want to risk losing to another team that chooses or changes before him.
Although 2020 didn’t have any early moves, the 2021 NFL Draft numbers will be different due to demand versus supply from quarterbacks. Knowing that the Jaguars, Jets, and 49ers are stuck in 1-2-3 QBs, here’s a look at the most likely business scenarios unfolding right after those picks:
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The five most likely candidates to redeem
Falcons, from No. 4
This becomes a much tougher decision if North Dakota state quarterback Trey Lance is still on the board, as Atlanta has a crush on him as a potential successor to Matt Ryan. Regardless of whether the 49ers lead Lance ahead, the Falcons need to think more about racking up positions for a rebuild with Arthur Smith and Jerry Fontenot.
For non-quarterback options, Florida tight end Kyle Pitts will also be tempted to join the offense with Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. But edge running back, tackle, outside linebacker and cornerback are all key defensive needs and the Falcons can trade this pick and still get good value at one of those positions later while adding draft capital. Between the future at Lance and the luxury at Pitts, there is a solid medium available, as there are enough teams wanting to pick the fourth quarterback to give the Falcons a great return.
Dolphins, No. 6 or No. 18
The Dolphins finished three spots lower first, with the 49ers picking in their old spot at No. 3 and the Eagles dropping to No. 12. But the Dolphins can still use their extra pick from the Texans or their own subsequent pick to manipulate. the board more.
Miami may still have its pick as a wide receiver at No. 6, but it’s better to change that for even more capital knowing it still has No. 18. Or, the team can enjoy the best player available at No. 6. and use No. 19 to get a second round and at the same time get a player you need near the end of the first round.
MORE: The Latest Dolphins Draft Trade Rumors
Panthers, from No. 8
The Panthers have freed themselves from chasing after a quarterback with the Sam Darnold trade, leaving several chances in the top 10. Staying still, wide receiver, offensive tackle, Pitts or a cornerback can go a long way. But they must also realize that they are picking a spot ahead of the Broncos, the team that for now is poised to take the fifth and final first-round-caliber QB. Depending on where Lance is going and whether the Bengals, Dophins or Lions don’t trade with a team in need of a QB in front of them, the Panthers can position themselves to maximize the return.
Really, he’s not just a quarterback. Pitts, the remaining tackle in the top two (Penei Sewell of Oregon or Rashawn Slater of Northwestern) and the alleged third wide receiver (Alabama Jaylen Waddle) could cause any number of teams to rage after No. 8 with the Cowboys, Giants and Eagles in sight. behind the Broncos at numbers 10-12.
Cowboys, from No. 10
The Cowboys are beginning to prepare to take on Pitts instead of addressing their urgent defensive need and picking the best available cornerback, be it Virginia Tech’s Caleb Farley or Alabama’s Patrick Surtain II. But if both cornerbacks were off the board, Dallas would be wiser to switch their pick versus going fancy in the passing game. It’s more of a no-brainer for Jerry Jones to change if Farley, Surtain and Pitts are selected in the top nine.
Under Jones, the Cowboys tend to let the draft come to them, much like jumping on wide receiver CeeDee Lamb last year. Dallas picks next at No. 44, so changing this pick for picks in the 20s and 30s would work well by using three picks in a corner, edge runner, and safety versus staying with two picks where the first might be. a scope, anyway.
Patriots, from No. 15
The Patriots are rumored to have traded for Lance, Ohio State’s Justin Fields or Alabama’s Mac Jones. But that hasn’t been in their DNA with Bill Belichick, as they have been much more often astute exchange partners. If all five quarterbacks are long gone, New England won’t fixate on a prospect, as many could define “the best available player” for the team.
Someone is destined to drop unexpectedly who will be of great value to another team. The Patriots got the Chargers to trade Oklahoma linebacker Kenneth Murray last year, and a coveted lead running back for a particular scheme or Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons can cause a similar proactive reaction from another team. The Patriots have 10 picks, but only three in the early rounds, so they should think about building capital through quality over quantity.
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The five most likely swap candidates
Broncos, from No. 9
The Broncos’ clear path to a top-five QB also clarifies what other teams must do to become obstacles to that, jumping somewhere between No. 4 and No. 8. There’s also the possibility that the 49ers take Jones and the Falcons pass. on Lance, and the Broncos may not want to settle for who’s left between Lance and Fields.
Denver, in a sense, would be making a definitive preemptive trade for a quarterback, much like San Francisco did when they shot at No. 3. In that scenario, Atlanta at No. 4 and Miami at No. 6 before Detroit- Carolina’s career would be the most feasible, as Cincinnati needs to be more marked as one of the top five talents who aren’t quarterbacks.
Chargers, from No. 13
The Chargers could use Sewell or Slater at left tackle. They could use Pitts to replace Hunter Henry. They could be desperate to upgrade No. 2 receiver with an immediate-impact elite starter off Keenan Allen. With Justin Herbert coming off an impressive rookie season, it makes sense to be a little aggressive in making sure one of those three picks happens.
Sitting for the best defensive player available or looking for a tackle or wide receiver doesn’t feel right. The Chargers can be contenders with a big move or two with Herbert in mind, and talent in offensive positions of necessity is too valuable early on. Among the Lions, Cowboys, Giants and Eagles, those plans can be ruined in the top twelve picks.
Washington soccer team, from No. 19
Washington signed Ryan Fitzpatrick as bridge QB for a year and has former Panthers youth Kyle Allen and Taylor Heinicke behind him. The football team might be hoping to lead Florida’s Kyle Trask at No. 51 overall in Round 2, but it might also want to attack to make up for Dwayne Haskins’ terrible first-round pick in 2019. I don’t know It would come as a surprise if new general manager Martin Mayhew makes a power move with, say, the Lions (his former employers) at No. 7 to make Washington beat Denver.
Like the Chargers in the AFC but turned around, with WFT coming off a playoff spot and strong free agency, you might think of him as a rising young QB becoming a consistent NFC contender. That could make landing a desired franchise quarterback while the class is strong well worth giving up on a first-round future.
Bears, from no. 20
The Bears have the same reasoning as Washington, although they might be a little less desperate now as they were following the disappointments of Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson. Andy Dalton is their bridge and they might be fine adding a later round development option.
Beyond making a great move for a quarterback, which they’ve done before with GM Ryan Pace, seeing Mitchell Trubisky in 2017, the Bears could have their eye on the defensive player or an offensive tackle to slide into. up some notches.
Buccaneers, from no. 32
The Super Bowl 55 champions have won another offseason after getting their job all in with Tom Brady last year. They are playing with the money in the house right now with no real immediate needs. Would they jump in to hide a quarterback behind Brady? How about a key defensive reinforcement or replacement in the near future? Given that Antonio Brown has yet to re-sign, a luxury wide receiver selection may also be in the works.
Tampa Bay has been aggressive with general manager Jason Licht with the present in mind, so it makes sense that he would push for one more linchpin rather than sitting in the last round of the first round.
Eddie is an Australian news reporter with over 9 years in the industry and has published on Forbes and tech crunch.