Sunday, February 5

2022 CMT Music Awards predictions: Carrie Underwood and Jason Aldean are the odds-on favorites


And then there were three. The CMT Music Awards, the fan-voted prizes for country music videos, started with 12 nominees for Video of the Year, then cut that down to six, and have finally whittled it down to the top three based on the votes of country listeners. Scroll down for our predictions in six categories being handed out live during a ceremony hosted by Kelsea Ballerini, Kane Brown, and Anthony Mackie tonight at 8:00pm Eastern on CBS. Our projected winners are highlighted in gold.

Our official odds are based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users who have placed their bets here in our predictions center. And based on those predictions Jason Aldean and Carrie Underwood are the ones to beat. Their duet “If I Didn’t Love You” is the front-runner to win both of its categories: Video of the Year and Collaborative Video of the Year. Our users have plenty of precedent to back that up since Underwood is the most awarded artist of all time at the CMT Awards with 23 wins and she also has the record for most Video of the Year titles with nine. This year she and Aldean have already outlasted big music stars like Taylor Swift, Miranda Lambert, Luke Combs, and Maren Morris to stay in the running.

Kane Brown‘s “One Mississippi” was also popular enough with fans to make the final three for Video of the Year, so it looks like he’ll be popular enough to claim Male Video of the Year for the third time in four years. Also looking for a repeat is Gabby Barrett, who won Female Video of the Year last year and is nominated again this year for “Footprints on the Moon.” With no Underwood in that category this year, “American Idol” alum Barrett is expected to get the fan support she needs to take home another trophy. See who else we’re betting on below.

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VIDEO OF THE YEAR
Jason Aldean and Carrie Underwood, “If I Didn’t Love You” — 17/5
Kane Brown, “One Mississippi” — 23/2
Cody Johnson, “Til You Can’t” — 22/1

FEMALE VIDEO OF THE YEAR
Gabby Barrett, “Footprints on the Moon” — 8/1
Miranda Lambert, “If I Was a Cowboy” — 9/1
Kacey Musgraves, “Justified” — 9/1
Mickey Guyton, “Remember Her Name” — 19/2
Maren Morris, “Circles Around This Town” — 10/1
Brandi Carlile, “Right on Time” — 21/2

MALE VIDEO OF THE YEAR
Kane Brown, “One Mississippi” — 8/1
Luke Combs, “Forever After All” — 9/1
Walker Hayes, “Fancy Like” — 19/2
Luke Bryan, “Waves” — 19/2
Cody Johnson, “Til You Can’t” — 10/1
Thomas Rhett, “Country Again” — 21/2
Eric Church, “Heart on Fire” — 11/1

DUO/GROUP VIDEO OF THE YEAR
Dan and Shay, “Steal My Love” — 6/1
Old Dominion, “I Was on a Boat That Day” — 7/1
Brothers Osborne, “I’m Not for Everyone” — 15/2
Zac Brown Band, “Same Boat” — 9/1
Maddie and Tae, “Woman You Got” — 10/1
Parmalee, “Take My Name” — 23/2

BREAKTHROUGH VIDEO OF THE YEAR
Tenille Arts, “Back Then, Right Now” — 6/1
Parker McCollum, “To Be Loved by You” — 7/1
Breland, “Cross Country” — 8/1
Caitlyn Smith feat. Old Dominion, “I Can’t”
Elvie Shane, “My Boy” — 10/1
Priscilla Block, “Just About Over You” — 21/2

COLLABORATIVE VIDEO OF THE YEAR
Jason Aldean and Carrie Underwood, “If I Didn’t Love You” — 15/2
Kelsea Ballerini feat. Kenny Chesney, “Half of My Hometown” — 9/1
Jordan Davis and Luke Bryan, “Buy Dirt” — 19/2
Carly Pearce and Ashley McBryde, “Never Wanted to Be That Girl” — 10/1
Nelly and Florida Georgia Line, “Lil Bit” — 10/1
Jimmie Allen and Brad Paisley, “Freedom Was a Highway” — 21/2
Dustin Lynch feat. MacKenzie Porter, “Thinking Bout You” — 11/1

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