The tectonic plates of abortion shake in USA. Although the constitutional protection of the right remains in place as long as there is no final judgment of the supreme courtthe leaked draft Monday with the Conservative majority opinion removing that protection and returning the regulation exclusively to the states has already approached a new reality. and for that the new Worldwhich in many cases represents a back to the pastwomen, health care providers, activists, and politicians from across the spectrum are groomed.
The first impact of the almost certain revocation of Roe v. Wade Y Caseythe two sentences of 1973 and 1992 that in these five decades have protected the right, will live in 13 states controlled by Republicans that they already have approved laws that, immediately after the decision of the Supreme, they will make abortion illegal in their territories. According to data from the Guttmacher Institute, in other 13 conservative states there laws or amendments prepared that would also speed up the total or near ban. The clinics who practice interruptions of pregnancy there would begin to close in the days following a Supreme Court ruling, while in others the process would take months.
On the other side of the equation, 16 progressive states and the District of Columbia have regulations that protect the right to abortion. Several of those states controlled by democrats have been preparing for open clinics near bordering states conservatives. They have also made efforts to secure financing to help women in restrictive states access safe abortions. Oregon, for example, has set aside $15 million to assist these patients. The state, according to data from the Guttmacher Institute, could see a 243% increase in the number of women for whom their abortion providers would be the closest.
Blow to young, poor and minorities
The government funds or those who collect civil organizations They will be essential to assist women who need to terminate their pregnancy in states where it would no longer be possible. According to Guttmacher data, the majority of those who require an abortion in the US are young women (in their twenties)single, with at least one child already, of low income and, disproportionately black (13% of the population but who receive 33% of abortions). For many, due to economic, labor and social conditions, it would not even be possible to travel to other states.
Calculations and analyzes carried out so far estimate that the number of abortions with illegalizations in the US would be reduced by 14%. In the recent case of Texaswhere a partial ban was implemented (with the endorsement of the conservative Supreme Court), the reduction in surgical abortions was 50% but the total was only 10%, largely because more women traveled to other states or ordered abortion pills.
The pills, a new battle front
Those pillswith which, according to data from the Guttmacher Institute, in 2020 the 54% of abortions in the US (23% more than in 2014), they had already become the last battlefront in the abortion wars since last year the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) relaxed the rules to access them. Anticipating the decision of the Supreme Court, several conservative states have been enacting or preparing legislation that criminalizes and hinders access to pills. 19 states already ban prescribing telemedicine or delivered by mail. Meanwhile, states governed by democrats Try to guarantee access and protect those who facilitate them to women.
In addition to at the state level, the Supreme Court’s decision will also accelerate the legislative efforts of both Democrats and Republicans to try to solidify their positions in the Congress in Washington. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has promised a vote to try to advance legislation. With only 50 seats, the filibuster that would force him to have 60 votes in force and the reconfirmed opposition this Tuesday of the moderate Democrat Joe Manchin to repeal filibustering, it would be a mere symbolic vote. Nor do Republicans now have, in the minority, votes to advance restrictive legislation. Even if they regained control of the cameras in November and were able to do so, they would collide, at least until 2024, with the safe veto wall of Joe Biden at the White House.
With Poland, Nicaragua and El Salvador
The ruling expected from the Supreme Court would put the US in the company of Poland, El Salvador and Nicaragua Like the only countries that, since 1994, have restricted access to abortion instead of expanding it, something that 54 nations have done according to data from the Center for Reproductive Rights. Several US states would align themselves with the 66 countries that ban abortion or allow it only when the life of the mother is in danger, where they reside near a quarter of the world’s women of reproductive age.
Eddie is an Australian news reporter with over 9 years in the industry and has published on Forbes and tech crunch.