Monday, November 29

Alabama vs. Florida Odds, Prediction, Betting Trends for SEC on CBS Showdown

No. 1 Alabama takes on No. 11 Florida on Saturday in a rematch of last year’s SEC championship game.

Game time is scheduled for 3:30 pm ET at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, and the game will be televised on CBS.

Alabama (2-0) continues to roll alongside quarterback Bryce Young, who has seven TD passes and one interceptions in two games. Crimson Tide is averaging 46 points per game, and the defense continues to fill the running game. Nick Saban has another national championship caliber team, and this is Young’s first road test.

BENDER: QB will be key to frustrated hopes of Florida vs. Tide | Week 3 Picks Against Spread | Conclusions from week 2

Florida (2-0) is also undefeated with fourth-year coach Dan Mullen, and the big question is how quarterbacks Emory Jones and Anthony Richardson will split reps. The Gators are looking for a big win, and this is a great opportunity at The Swamp as a two TD loser.

With that in mind, Sporting News breaks down the betting trends for the SEC showdown between the Gators and Crimson Tide:

Alabama vs. Florida odds

  • Spread: Alabama -14.5
  • Below: 58.5
  • Money line: Alabama -650, Florida +440

Three trends to know

– The Crimson Tide are 12-1 S / U since 2018 as a road favorite, and that includes an 8-4-1 ATS record.

– The Gators are 6-3-1 ATS as an underdog under Mullen, and that includes a 2-0 ATS record as an underdog at The Swamp. Florida was a 16-point underdog in last year’s SEC championship game, and the Gators covered a 52-46 loss.

– Alabama has won the last seven meetings against the Gators by an average of 21.6 points per game. Mullen is 0-10 S / U against Alabama between head coach stops in Mississippi and Florida.

Three things to look at

– Bryce Young’s first road outing. How does the second-year quarterback respond to The Swamp in his first true road outing? If Florida, which has allowed only 2.4 yards a carry, can force some first third and long runs, it will be an interesting test. Alabama offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien has favored a run: pass ratio close to 50:50 in two games, but Young is likely to come out pitching to test that Florida secondary. Ohio State transfer Jameson Williams has been successful as a deep threat throughout two games.

– Florida quarterback. Emory Jones will continue to be the Gators’ starter, but he has thrown four interceptions in two games. Anthony Richardson will also watch the time, and the four-star freshman could present the Alabama defense with some unique challenges. The Crimson Tide has four interceptions and nine broken passes. Both quarterbacks must protect the ball.

– Knockouts in the first half. Alabama and Florida have been nearly identical in knocking out their opponents in the first half. The Gators (59-3) and Crimson Tide (58-3) have built big early leads. Alabama led 35-17 at halftime last year before the Gators rallied from a frantic second half. Florida can make this a four-quarter game, but will it be a one-score game at halftime?

Statistics that matter

Richardson could emerge as an important story in this game if he is healthy. He has dealt with a hamstring problem in practice this week. The talent is there. He totaled 275 passing yards on 11 attempts and 192 rushing yards on 11 carries. That’s 21.2 yards a play, and on the rare occasions that Alabama misses a regular-season game, the opposing quarterback has been able to consistently break contention. Richardson has completed only 54.6 percent of his passes. If that percentage is around 65 percent, it could be interesting.

Alabama vs. Florida prediction

The Crimson Tide has been unflappable despite losing several key pieces in the 2021 NFL Draft. Watch the early running game. Brian Robinson Jr. is averaging 5.9 yards per carry, but he has only 11 attempts per game. If Alabama is successful running the ball, then Young should be able to adapt with a passing game that will stress Florida on the perimeter. Jones and Richardson will make some great strikes in the passing game, but they won’t be enough to keep up with Crimson Tide. Alabama won 38-10 in the last meeting at The Swamp in 2011. It won’t be that jarring, but Crimson Tide stays in control for four quarters and takes the lid off.

Final score: Alabama 34, Florida 17

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