Arsenal vs. Brentford Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-130 / -110)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 10 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Arsenal and Brentford meet at Emirates Stadium on Saturday for a London derby that’s also a rematch from their Premier League season opener.
The Gunners are pushing for a top-four finish this campaign, entering the weekend four points off the final Champions League qualification spot.
While the return to the English top flight started well, the visiting Bees have been in free fall the last few months, losing seven out of their last nine games in the English top flight to drop into the bottom half of the table.
Brentford secured a 2-0 victory in the league’s curtain-raiser, creating optimism around the newly promoted club. However, I’m expecting a much different outcome in this latest showdown.
Arsenal Chasing Champions League Berth
After getting dumped out of both domestic cup competitions, Arsenal can put all of its attention on the league to secure a return to European cup competition next season.
Manager Mikel Arteta has his team on some of its best form, winning five out of its last seven games. Over that same stretch, the Gunners have posted a +8.1 expected goals difference on a 1.99 xG per game average, according to fbref.com, and have outscored their foes by a combined 16-3 as well.
One key piece missing for this match will be striker Gabriel Martinelli, who was sent off in the last victory against Wolves.
Brentford Hoping to Regain Positive Form
It has been a tale of two seasons for Brentford, which secured 16 of its 24 points in the first 13 league games.
In the last 12 fixtures, the Bees have lost eight matches and only landed points in wins against Watford and Aston Villa, as well as draws with Leeds United and Crystal Palace.
The real struggle for manager Thomas Frank’s team has been the performances away from home, with Brentford losing six of its last eight road league games.
The big question for this game is whether the club’s leading scorer, Ivan Toney, will be healthy enough to return, as the Bees desperately need him in attack to have a chance.
Betting Analysis & Pick
As you would expect, BetMGM has Arsenal listed as the -225 moneyline favorite, while the total is set at 2.5 goals.
I’m expecting the great form to continue for the Gunners, but I’ll be looking in another market for the best value in the match. That said, my best bet is Arsenal to Win to Nil at +110 odds.
I touched on Brentford’s struggles away from home this season, and the advanced metrics solidify how bad the club has been in road games. In the 12 fixtures away from the Brentford Community Stadium, the Bees have averaged just 0.94 xG per match as opposed to the 1.38 xG home average.
Meanwhile, Arsenal has been very strong at home this season, owning a +7.3 xG difference and holding clubs to an average of 0.98 xG per 90 minutes.
If you look at how this bet has performed on the year for the Gunners, the same play would have cashed in games against similar opposition at home in Norwich City, Leeds, Watford, Newcastle and Southampton.
Arsenal has done a great job of beating teams in the bottom half of the table at home dating back to the Arsène Wenger years. Needless to say, I think this is a great spot for that continue against a struggling Brentford side.
Pick: Arsenal to Win to Nil (+110)
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George is Digismak’s reported cum editor with 13 years of experience in Journalism