Wednesday, March 27

As order is restored in Kazakhstan, its future is darker than ever | Kazakhstan


For many Kazakhs, the full story behind last week’s unrest remains as murky as the fog that engulfed Almaty, the country’s largest city and the center of violence, at the same time.

People were unable to access accurate information as an internet blackout froze nearly all access to the outside world during tragic days of violence in which military vehicles roamed the streets, government buildings burned down, and state television broadcast continuous threats that “bandits and terrorists” would be ruthlessly eliminated.

Now both order and the Internet have been largely restored, but there are still more questions than answers. One thing that is clear is that many of the old assumptions about Kazakhstan, the resource-rich Central Asian state, have been overturned.

Last month, the country marked the 30th anniversary of its independence, with official speeches that highlighted the image of a peaceful and prosperous nation, which had largely avoided political unrest and boasted of an independent and “multi-vector” foreign policy.

Kazakhstan, it seems, had even successfully managed the complicated transition out of power from its former president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, who led the country from independence in 1991 to 2019, to his handpicked successor, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.

A month later, the picture is very different. The peaceful protests turned into violent clashes, Tokayev announced that he had ordered security forces to “shoot to kill, without warning”, and troops from a Russian-led military alliance are on the ground after Tokayev summoned them.

Riot police during the uprising in Almaty
Riot police during the uprising in Almaty. Photograph: Alexander Kuznetsov / EPA

Amid all this, dozens of deaths and the feeling from eyewitness reports that the actual number of victims could be far greater than the 26 “armed criminals” and 18 security officers who, according to the Interior Ministry, were killed. . More than 4,000 people have been arrested.

Throughout the week there were suspicions that there might be more at stake than a simple popular uprising, and this was reinforced by the announcement on Saturday that Karim Masimov, a powerful former security chief and prime minister, had been arrested on suspicion of treason. .

The move only increased speculation that the initial protests could have been used by groups within the country’s political elite to fight their own battles. A source in Kazakh business circles gave credence to this scenario, describing a situation in recent months of growing tension between figures close to Nazarbayev and his successor, Tokayev.

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“In the last six to 12 months there was an increase in fights, which paralyzed decision-making,” said the source. “It has been bubbling for some time.”

One of the most surprising episodes of the week was Tokayev’s transformation from a placid placeholder to a furious autocrat, who promised to brutally crush the revolt.

“We were dealing with well-prepared and armed bandits, both local and foreign. Bandits and terrorists, who should be destroyed. This will happen in the nearest time, “Tokayev said in an uncompromising address to the nation on Friday, noting that there were 20,000 such” bandits “in Almaty alone. He also posted a message in English on Twitter: “In my basic opinion, there are no conversations with the terrorists: we must kill them.” It was later removed.

Kassym-Jomart Tokayev
Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is the handpicked successor to Kazakhstan’s independence leader Nursultan Nazarbayev. Photograph: Xinhua / Rex / Shutterstock

“Before, he seemed like a quiet, mealy-mouthed diplomat, but the rhetoric we saw on Friday was that of a general commanding an army,” said Kate Mallinson, associate member of Chatham House.

Amnesty International described Tokayev’s promise to shoot without warning as “a recipe for disaster”, and there is now doubt how much the government’s response will differentiate between peaceful protesters and violent groups. Tokayev put Kazakhstan’s already beleaguered civil society on alert when he said free media played a role in stoking the unrest.

“There is still very little independent information and a lot of uncertainty. However, one thing is clear: the peaceful protest was genuine and spontaneous, ”said Diana T. Kudaibergenova, a sociologist at the University of Cambridge. “People took to the streets to voice their complaints and we saw some self-organization, especially in western Kazakhstan.”

The protest started in the west last weekend, sparked by rising fuel prices and quickly spread to other cities, including Almaty. There, many of those on the streets reported that on Wednesday and Thursday the demonstration was hijacked by violent groups, some of which appeared to be well organized, attacking government buildings and briefly seizing the airport.

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Tokayev, in his speech, spoke vaguely about “foreign-trained” attackers, but did not elaborate or specify who they were supposedly working for.

Many questions remain about Nazarbayev’s role in the week’s apparent backstage feuds. Tokayev announced Wednesday that he would remove Nazarbayev from the head of the security council, without specifying whether it was with or without the approval of the former president. Throughout the week there were persistent rumors that Nazarbayev and his family had fled the country.

On Saturday, Nazarbayev’s spokesman, Aidos Ukibay, denounced the rumors as “deliberately false and speculative information.” He said Nazarbayev was in close contact with Tokayev and wanted the nation to support the new president. But the man himself has been silent during the most dramatic week in the young country’s history.

It was a surprising absence from a politician who has personified Kazakhstan for the past three decades. When he resigned in 2019, the new capital he had ordered to create in 1997 was renamed Nur-Sultan, in his honor. But for all the excesses of the cult of personality, for a long time Nazarbayev’s Kazakhstan was a far more intelligent autocracy than those of the other post-Soviet nations of Central Asia.

Many Western diplomats viewed his leadership positively, despite democratic shortcomings, in part because of the lucrative opportunities for Western companies the country provided. “He was able to balance Russia and China, and other outside influences, and implemented some genuine reforms,” ​​said a Western diplomatic source.

At the same time, a small elite close to Nazarbayev became tremendously wealthy, while many ordinary people still lived in poverty. Over time, the resentments only intensified. “In Kazakhstan, market economy means capitalism, which means a lot of money, which means big bribes for the better connected,” as a former US ambassador put it in a leaked 2010 diplomatic cable, paraphrasing a conversation with a top Kazakh businessman. .

Whatever the end result of last week’s turmoil, images of a Nazarbayev statue in the city of Taldykorgan being pulled down, and of crowds shouting “Old man, get out!” they are likely to fundamentally alter the legacy you expected.

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Also at stake is the independent foreign policy that was one of his most treasured achievements. When Tokayev asked for support from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russian-led military alliance, on Wednesday night, the request was approved within hours. At a time when all eyes were on the troops concentrated near Russia’s border with Ukraine, suddenly there was a different Russian intervention to contend with.

Both the Kazakh and Russian sides have insisted that the contingent will be limited in size, scope and duration, and so far, claims of a Russian occupation seem exaggerated. But even if the troops leave in a few days, the balance of power in the region has likely been irrevocably upset. “Nothing is free with Putin, and there will be a quid pro quo,” Mallinson said. In addition to the geopolitical implications, the sudden collapse of the Kazakh security forces and Nazarbayev’s legacy may also have major repercussions on Russian domestic politics.

“Russia and Kazakhstan are two very similar political models: resource-based personalized post-imperial autocracies,” said Moscow-based political scientist Ekaterina Schulmann. The “Nazarbayev option” had been seen as a possible way for Vladimir Putin to safely step aside when his current term ends in 2024, but it now seems like a much less attractive option than it might have been a week ago.

Those involved in political decision-making in Russia would likely conclude from recent events in Kazakhstan that even the managed transition is dangerous and that the security forces must be further strengthened, Schulmann said.

“If you have a favorite idea, whatever happens will feed off your favorite idea,” he said, noting that the Kremlin is obsessed with preserving current power structures and repelling perceived external threats by suppressing dissent at home.

As attention shifts to behind-the-scenes infighting and geopolitical implications, some at home are urging that the human tragedy of the past days not be forgotten. On Saturday, a group of Kazakh civil society organizations wrote an open letter to the authorities: “Unrest and violence have no place in peaceful demonstrations … We call on the authorities to carry out a full investigation of each party. of this tragedy “.


www.theguardian.com

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