Aukus deal: why China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific worries Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom

Aukus, an acronym in English for Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States, aims to “defend” the interests of the three Anglo-Saxon nations in the Indo-Pacific.

The agreement will allow Australia to build its first nuclear-powered submarines with US technology. Washington had only transferred its technology with the United Kingdom more than 50 years ago.

But why does this pact arise now?

Although US officials have said the move is not intended to counter China, experts say the Aukus deal marks a shift in strategy and policy across the region.

“The Indo-Pacific has become key to the economy of the world. It can be said that it has become the center of gravity of the world economy, and not just for China, but for Japan, South Korea, India, among other countries, “Ramon Pacheco Pardo, professor of International Relations at King’s College London, an expert on Asia-Pacific, tells BBC Mundo.

The Indo-Pacific region is home to the two most populous nations in the world: China and India, and adding other countries such as Indonesia, it is home to more than half of the world’s population.

Likewise, it represents close to lin the middle of economic production of the planet, hosting the second and third world economies (China and Japan), in addition to India, which is growing rapidly, and South Korea, which continues in the top ten of the largest economies in the world.

Outgoing UK Foreign Minister Dominic Raab knew it.

“If you look at India and the Indo-Pacific region and take a long-term view, that’s where the opportunities will be growth, “he said during a visit to India in December last year.

Apart from the enormous economic and demographic weight of the region, the United States and its Western allies are concerned about the growth of the Chinese presence, as well as its actions in the area and the way in which it is being armed.

Speaking to the BBC, UK Defense Minister Ben Wallace recalled that China was “embarking on one of the largest military expenditures in history“.

“It is increasing its navy (and) its air force at a great rate. Obviously, it is involved in some disputed areas,” he added.

“Our partners in those regions want to be able to defend their own ground … It is not about antagonizing anyone.”

China has been accused in recent years of increasing tensions around disputed territories in the Indo-Pacific.

Beijing claims almost the entire South China Sea as its own and under the command of Xi Jinping has built in the area from cities to airstrips or tourist and military facilities on artificial islands.

But these are waters that are also claimed by countries such as Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia and BruneiThis has created a dispute over numerous islands, reefs and their respective adjoining waters that has not been resolved for decades.

Although the US does not argue sovereignty issues, it does display its military presence under the argument of defending “freedom of navigation” in a strategic area through which 30% of world trade circulates.

It is also believed that the area is home to precious deposits of oil and gas.

Veerle Nouwens, an expert in geopolitical relations in Asia and the Pacific at the RUSI Institute, based in London, assures that both the projected economic growth in the region and its maritime routes make it a “direct national interest” both for countries inside and outside the the region.

In his opinion, the region requires stability and an order based on international rules.

“But growing geopolitical tensions, particularly in relation to China’s military assertiveness, worry London and Washington, as well as partners in the region, who are seen dwarfed by Chinese economic and military might“, Add.

Pacheco Pardo, from King’s College London, believes that the Aukus will increase the power and weight of the West in the region: “This could serve to contain China’s behavior in the Indo-Pacific.”

With this pact, Australia will join an exclusive and small group of nations that operate nuclear powered submarines that includes the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China, India and Russia.

Australia has insisted that no intends to develop nuclear weapons and will continue to comply with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

Nuclear powered submarines are much faster and harder to detect than conventionally powered ones. They can stay submerged for months, fire missiles at longer ranges, and also carry more weight.

“The fact that Australia has nuclear submarines does not make it more powerful than China (…) But it changes the balance of power in the region, “Yun Sun, co-director of the East Asia Program at the Washington-based Stimson Center, told the BBC.

“If China faces a security situation in the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait, this will affect the preparedness and response of the Chinese Armed Forces,” he adds.

According to analysts, having this type of submarine stationed in Australia is fundamental to the influence of the United States in the region.

But one of the immediate consequences for Australia has been that the pact has poisoned its relations with China.

This Thursday, several Chinese state media published editorials denouncing the pact. The Global Times went even further and claimed that Australia had “become a adversary of China“.

The Aukus was born a month after the hasty and highly criticized exit of the United States from Afghanistan.

Ramon Pacheco Pardo, from King’s College London, does not believe that both events are linked, but considers that the agreement represents a great opportunity for Washington to renew its image and show that, despite not having consulted with its allies its decision to leave Kabul is still willing to work with its allies.

But for the expert Veerle Nouwens, this simply shows that the Indo-Pacific has become a priority scenario for the Biden administration.

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