Thursday, May 26

Baylor vs Oklahoma State Odds, Prediction, Betting Trends for Big 12 Championship

No. 5 Oklahoma State faces No. 9 Baylor in the Big 12 championship game on Saturday.

Kickoff is scheduled for 12 pm ET at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The game will be televised on ABC.

Oklahoma State (11-1) is in a good position to go into the college football playoff with a win. Mike Gundy has done it with a defense that allows 281.4 yards per game. The Cowboys snapped a six-game losing streak to rival Oklahoma last week and could slide to that fourth place in the playoffs with a conference championship.

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Baylor (10-2) will look to play spoiler with second-year coach Dave Aranda. The Bears rank eighth in the FBS with a running offense totaling 227.4 yards per game. Quarterback Gerry Bohanon (hamstring) remains questionable for the game. The Bears lost their only Big 12 championship appearance in 2019.

The early start makes him a trailblazer for the championship on Saturday. With that in mind, here’s everything you need to know about betting on the Cowboys and Bears.

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Baylor vs Oklahoma State Odds

  • Spread: Oklahoma State -4.5
  • Below: 46.5
  • Money line: Oklahoma State -225, Baylor +180

Three trends to know

– The Cowboys have been nice to punters this season. The state of Oklahoma is 9-3 ATS, and that includes a 6-1 ATS record with single-digit spreads. The line was -3.5 when the Cowboys beat Baylor 24-14 on October 2.

– Oklahoma State has won the last two games by double digits, but the series has been relatively even. The Cowboys and Bears have split into 12 games since 2010.

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– The Bears are 8-4 ATS this season under Aranda, and they are 3-1 S / U and 3-1 ATS as underdogs. The only loss was to the state of Oklahoma.

Three things to look at

Will Bohanon play? Aranda has been shy about talking about Bohanon’s condition. The junior quarterback missed last week’s game against Texas Tech, and backup Blake Sharpen passed for 254 yards and two touchdowns in his place. Bohanon was limited to 186 total yards in Game 1 against Oklahoma State, and the Bears averaged just 3.7 yards per carry.

Does the state of Oklahoma play mouth-breakers? That’s what they did at the last meeting. Jaylen Warren had 36 carries for 125 yards and a pair of TDs. Spencer Sanders added 76 rushing yards but also threw three interceptions. Warren averaged 16.5 carries in the Cowboys last six games. It feels like a game where you could have 25-30 rushing attempts. Oklahoma State averaged 3.7 yards per rush in the last game, also, they only had 30 more attempts.

Chess match. Baylor offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes and Oklahoma state defensive coordinator Jim Knowles are among the top five finalists for the Broyles Award, which is awarded to the best assistant coach in the FBS. Knowles won the first battle. What adjustments will Grimes make to jump-start the Bears’ fast attack, especially if Bohanon is out? Oklahoma has a trio of defensive players with at least six sacks in Collin Oliver (9.5 sacks), Devin Harper (6.0 sacks) and Brock Martin (6.0 sacks).

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Statistics that matter

We mentioned Oklahoma State’s third down defense before Bedlam last week, and the Sooners were 5 of 18 at third down. The state of Oklahoma limits opponents to a third-down 24.7% conversion rate, which is the best on FBS. Baylor is not far behind in 12th place with a rate of 32.1%. On offense, Oklahoma State ranks 43rd at 42.7% and Baylor ranks 54th at 41.6%.

Baylor vs Oklahoma State Prediction

Bohanon’s state will be a story, but it may not matter. The state of Oklahoma will depend on the running game with Sanders and Warren. Baylor needs to get Abram Smith on track in this one, and they’ll show some new wrinkles in the passing game. If Sanders avoids turnovers, Oklahoma State should have an advantage. That will be the difference in the game. Will it be the difference for the final playoff spot?

Final score: Oklahoma State 30, Baylor 23

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