Saturday, January 28

Between Orwell and Le Carre

John LeCarre It is an essential tool to know the hidden keys of the sinks of the high international politics. His arguments centered on the Cold War, a world that no longer exists, but they still serve to interpret their imitators. The new spies they don’t wear raincoats or move in black and white movies. Now they sit on the kremlin and threaten with nuclear catastrophe. On the other side, on the side of the presumed good guys, he sends a warlike elite educated in confrontation and business, unable to think outside the box.

The facts: the explosions in the two gas pipelines linking Russia with Germany look like a sabotage more than an accident in the middle of the confrontation between Russia Y West. They happen at a time when the European countries dependent on the gas in Russian They try to find alternative ways. They fear that the discontent of the population will topple governments.

Police novels teach us that every investigation starts with a question: who benefits from the crime? What interest could Washington in placing the EU in a dizzying situation amid rising fuel prices and inflation? However, in a context of asymmetric warfare we should not rule out anything however implausible it may seem.

informational battle

Vladimir Putin has an advantage in this post-truth scenario: there will always be those who believe and spread their lies in the West, or invent others. Here a great informative battle is waged. The Kremlin has set foot in Italy and another in Hungaryand is hopeful that new georgia melon Flip the game board. It is a long-term game.

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Another fact: Russia is in difficulty in the battlefield and in the rear. The partial mobilization close up of 300,000 reservists It has sparked protests in several cities across the country. It is not a revolution, but the virus of discontent is visible. The seal of don’t talk, don’t look, don’t listen has been broken. The annexation of Ukrainian territories after a referendum-hoax proves that the Kremlin lives by generating and sustaining a lie that has nothing to do with its military situation. The killing of civilians fleeing Zaporizhia is another criminal act of desperation.

Putin has made it clear that he will not accept defeat. Before capitulating he is willing to use nuclear weapons. It could be a tactical bomb on an unpopulated area of ​​Ukraine so that the wind pushes the radioactive cloud to some country in the NATO. Would this scenario be considered a reason to activate the Article 5 of the North Atlantic Alliance Treaty that requires a joint response, including that of Spain? The US has conveyed to Moscow the message that the aftershock would be devastating.

Putin’s record teaches us that dropping a bomb on an uninhabited area would be his way of testing this firmness. More tactical bombs could come later in an escalation that forces a dilemma: leaving Ukraine either nuclear catastrophe.

russian terrorism

The head of the Kremlin has had no problem using terror inside and outside his borders. The attacks in Moscow in September 1999, prior to the second chechen warthey had the signature of their russian secret services. They were the excuse to laminate Grozny.

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Putin has already used radioactive material in Europe. he poisoned Alexander Litvinenko in 2006 with polonium 210, a dangerous substance that put tens of thousands of Londoners at risk. Dissidence is paid for with death, whether by falling from a building or apparent suicide.

Putin likes to test his rival’s resolve, he wants to know if he blinks before he draws. The West responded to the invasions of Abkhazia Y South Ossetia in Georgiain 2008, and those of the donbas Y crimeain Ukraine in 2014, with timid sanctions and verbal protests.

Biden’s mistakes

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The president of the USA, Joe Biden, He has made serious mistakes, several due to excessive loquacity. He did not listen to Fionna Hill, one of the top experts on the Russian leader, who recommended in March not to give the impression that the goal was to bring down Putin, beyond arming Ukraine. Despite the fact that Biden called the head of the Kremlin a murderer, he has not dared to declare Russia a terrorist state. International consensus is lacking. Not everything is Western.

The winter general will slow down military advances, allow for strategic reshuffling, and give alpha-leaders a dramatic pause. Do not expect a saving negotiation. He plays cold, patience and many readings of Le Carré. If in doubt about what to do, rescue George Orwell: “The quickest way to end a war is to lose it.” Happy 1984.

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