BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) – Monday is expected to bring the next round of active and stormy weather to the Brazos Valley. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a majority of the area under a 3 out of 5 “enhanced” risk for severe storms.
WHAT IS AN ENHANCED RISK?
The highest potential for severe weather Monday is now circled around an area from north of Waco to Austin to Houston. This puts the Brazos Valley in the middle of this 3 out of 5 risk on the Storm Prediction Center’s scale.
An enhanced risk is defined as “numerous severe storms possible. These storms are likely to be more persistent and/or widespread. A few could be intense.” Within this risk, the area locally is outlined for the potential of the most significant weather of the event. More on that below in the impacts/hazards section.
The last time any part of the Brazos Valley was included in this high of a risk: 315 days ago – May 9th, 2021.
IMPACTS / HAZARDS
As a potent weather maker moves into the Texas Panhandle Monday, the dynamics of the atmosphere suggest that significant severe weather could materialize during the late afternoon and evening hours. Storms are expected to develop on a dryline near I-35 between 4 p.m. and 6 p.m. before moving east into the Brazos Valley by evening. Any storm that needs extra attention would be for (in the following order):
- A few tornadoes. There is a 10% or greater chance for an EF2 – EF5 to form within any 25-mile point of the Brazos Valley
- Large, potentially destructive hail. There is a 10% or greater chance for hail up to the size of an egg (2″) within any 25-mile point of the Brazos Valley
- Strong, damaging wind gusts in excess of 60-75mph
- Heavy rainfall could produce a quick 1″ to 2″ under stronger storms. Localized 3″ to 4″ totals are not ruled out under the most intense storms, should they form
Important to note here that every storm in the Brazos Valley Monday will not be to this degree of intensity. While severe weather is highly anticipated, not every part of this higher risk will experience a severe storm. Rather, if a severe storm is to occur, this is the most likely area for it to do so.
Scattered showers will be possible as early as sunrise Monday. While severe weather is not overly anticipated during the afternoon hours, a few rumbles of thunder will be possible by 3 p.m. or later. These storms will need to be monitored, but are of low concern, at this time. The main timing for any severe or destructive weather:
- Storms develop 4 – 6 p.m. along or just west of I-35 on the dryline. These storms are expected to develop rapidly and become severe
- Western Brazos Valley: Monday 6 – 9 p.m.
- Central Brazos Valley (including Bryan-College Station): Monday 8 – 10 p.m.
- Eastern Brazos Valley: Monday 10 p.m. – Tuesday 12 a.m.
- Storms exit the Brazos Valley: Tuesday 1 – 3 a.m.
WHAT COULD CHANGE?
Scattered rain could start as early as sunrise Monday and continue for much of the day. If this were to occur, this could keep destabilization to a minimum, not allowing the more robust dynamics of the day from fully being actualized through the afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center mentioned in their Saturday morning discussion “the blossoming of precipitation complicates the forecast for later in the day, casting uncertainty onto the degree of [instability] which may develop.”
Another trend being monitored: storms with the most concerning/destructive weather of the day could form further west of I-35 keeping the higher tornado and destructive hail threat west of most of the Brazos Valley. In this scenario, a line of thunderstorms would still be expected across the area Monday evening but would present more of a wind threat than tornado or hail. This is a best-case scenario but not an absolute possibility, at this time.
Regardless, a round of strong and severe storms is expected to pass through the Brazos Valley from west to east Monday evening. This is the time that the Brazos Valley needs to be highly weather aware.
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Monday is a day that could be highly impactful for the Brazos Valley. As high-resolution forecast data continues to sharpen on this event, a better understanding of how the day may play out will come into view over the next 24 hours.
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