Sunday, February 28

Brexit is far from over: this deal is not a “game, set and match” | Brexit

meIt is difficult to imagine a better outcome for the prime minister. Four and a half years after the EU referendum, he achieved a agreement with the EU that many thought impossible. Nigel Farage’s statement that “the war is overHe stressed that Johnson had done so without alienating even the toughest Brexiters. If Labor support was the icing on the cake, a YouGov poll that showed a marked increase In the proportion of voters who thought the government was handling Brexit well (from 24% on December 20 to 37% on December 28), it was the cherry.

So, game and first set for Boris Johnson. If maybe it’s not a donut , this was, however, a fairly complete victory. However, two things are worth remembering about the tennis scoring system. First, (and for the benefit of a few others) once you’ve lost a set, there is no point in dwelling on it. Second, as easy as you win the first set, the second starts with love for everyone. Much more remains of this match, and the outcome is still unclear. Remember that John Major’s press secretary stated that he was game, set and match to the British Prime Minister in Maastricht.

Even in terms of relations with the EU, there are many unresolved issues, including the EU’s “equivalence” decisions for financial services and an “adequacy” decision that would allow the free continuous flow of data. These issues are unilateral decisions of the EU. The ball is on the court in Brussels.

Additionally, problems are likely to arise in implementing what is both a hasty and incredibly complicated set of fixes, and will have to be addressed in the myriad new structures the deal has created. The demand to recover more fish will resurface in five and a half years, when this transition period is over. And as if all that were not enough, the two parties have agreed to review the entire agreement every five years.

But that’s the deal. More complicated for the prime minister is what to do with his newly won sovereignty. For many supporters of abandonment, Brexit was a means to an end, rather than an end in itself.

A central theme of conservative euroscepticism over the past three decades has been the claim that EU membership imposed a costly and cumbersome bureaucracy on the UK that acted as a drag on economic growth. The government argues that the UK can use its new regulatory freedom to energize its economy through what Michael Gove has called “smarter and better” regulation.

Freedom, however, has a price. Under the terms of the recently signed agreement, the UK’s steps to cut regulatory standards could be met with almost immediate retaliation in the form of New Rates, losing the prime minister’s central (some would say, unique) achievement in his trade deal.

And even when it comes to specific industries, there are tough decisions to make. The chancellor has said that leaving the EU means that the UK can “do things differently” to make the City of London the most attractive place to list companies in the world.

However, at the same time, Rishi Sunak assured us that he was continuing the dialogue with the EU on equivalence decisions. These will determine the ease with which financial services companies can trade with the EU. However, the more ministers emphasize their desire to depart from EU rules, the less likely the EU authorities will grant the equivalence they seek. The trade-offs between autonomy and market access inherent in Brexit have not disappeared.

Of course, a defining characteristic of the last four years has been the government’s refusal to openly discuss or indeed acknowledge the existence of these offsets. It was entirely appropriate that, like his last shots of the first set, the prime minister declared that “there will be no non-tariff barriers to trade”, allowing companies to do “even more trade with our European friends.”

As long as the material impacts of Brexit were not visible, this strategy worked well. However, we are now turning away from the Brexit prophecy and the government cannot hide from the reality of Brexit for long. The ads on Christmas TV, followed by Gove’s media round, were designed to convey a very different message: Businesses should be prepared to face an obstacle course of new barriers to trade starting January 1.

It’s those barriers that mean the Johnson deal will depress UK growth, reducing around 6.4% of UK GDP per person over the next 10 years, according to forecasts for my opinion, thank you, UK in a changing Europe.

Next year, people are more likely to notice immediate disruptions and supply chain failures due to Brexit. But these effects will be masked by a short-term economic recovery driven by vaccines. Brexit, however, will undermine our long-term economic potential, and those effects will become clearer when the pandemic recedes in the past. Even with a deal, the impact of Brexit on the economy will be significantly greater than that of the pandemic.

However, ministers present Brexit as a springboard from which they will be in a better position to achieve ambitious economic goals. Gove hinted that leaving the EU meant that the government could now focus its attention more effectively on “leveling” the country. However, the combination of Brexit and the pandemic will have the opposite effect: both will impose the highest costs on the poorest parts of the country.

And as if all that were not enough, the indirect and, from the government’s perspective, unintended consequences of Brexit must be addressed. Chief among them is the determination of the Scottish National Party to use Brexit as a launching pad for another independence referendum. Polls suggest that Nicola Sturgeon will secure another majority in 2021 based on a commitment to get back to the people.

Johnson would certainly reject calls for another Scottish independence referendum. Consequently, when your tenure enters its final phase, you will be playing for extremely high stakes. Labor will fight to secure a majority on its own, given the position from which it will have to fight in the next election. This raises the prospect of a “progressive” coalition, and with it IndyRef2. Johnson may think that Sturgeon’s threat will help his chances of securing a second term. But much will depend on your success in delivering on your Brexit promises.

In the UK, only from 11 p.m. on New Year’s Eve, when the transition period comes to an end, will the prime minister face his toughest Brexit challenges. In a country still divided in half, where Brexit identities remain stronger than political party ties and where success depends as much on subsequent policy success as exiting the EU itself, Brexit is far from over. end up. Established game and party this is not.

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