Friday, February 3

Burnley vs. Liverpool: Back Liverpool to Notch Shutout at Turf Moor


Burnley vs. Liverpool Odds

Burnley Odds +875
Liverpool Odds -350
Draw +450
Over/Under 2.5 (-175 / +125)
Day | Time Sunday | 9 a.m. ET
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Odds updated as of Sunday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Liverpool makes the trip to Turf Moor on Sunday to take on Burnley in a Premier League match featuring sides on opposite ends of the league table.

The Clarets enter the showdown last in the league, with only one win to go along with 11 draws for 14 total points.

For the visitors, the Reds need a win to try to keep pace with first-place Manchester City, coming into the game in second place on 51 points.

All signs point to a clear favorite, and I have a plus-money wager to back the European giants in this showdown.

Weghorst Needs to Give Burnley Needed Boost

While Burnley finds itself deep in the relegation zone, the two or three games in hand give manager Sean Dyche’s team some room for optimism in beating the drop.

The Clarets need to find a way to pose bigger threats offensively in order to stay in the English top flight. The club ranks toward the bottom of the EPL in multiple attacking categories, including expected goals per 90 minutes (0.94), goals scored (16) and shots per match (10.65), according to fbref.com.

There is a lot of pressure on January arrival Wout Weghorst to take on the challenge of scoring the goals to keep Burnley in the first division.

The Dutch striker, who had an assist in the midweek draw with Manchester United, and has averaged 0.27 xG in his first two matches with the Clarets.

Liverpool, Salah Maintaining Dominant Form

While there have been scoring issues with the Clarets, the same cannot be said for manager Jürgen Klopp’s high-flying Liverpool. The Reds lead the league in xG per 90 minutes (2.46), goals scored (58) and shots per 90 minutes (18.95) this campaign.

Star striker Mohamed Salah has his sights on winning the Golden Boot for top scorer in the EPL, leading all scorers with 16 goals.

He has six more goals than the next closest player, which is teammate Diogo Jota with 10 goals. The duo is the only pair in the league that has reached double digits in their goal tallies.

Betting Analysis & Pick

As you would expect, BetMGM has Liverpool listed as the heavy -350 favorite on the moneyline, while the total is set at 2.5 goals. Those numbers are too big for me to back the Reds, but there’s value in a different market.

That said, my best bet is to play Liverpool to Win to Nil at +105 odds.

I spoke about the offensive metrics for Klopp’s side, but his team has also shown the ability to put up great defensive numbers as well.

The Reds rank in the top four of the league in xGA per 90 minutes (1.05), opponents’ shots per match (8.59) and goals allowed (18) this season.

Other key areas whenever you play Burnley are how well you defend crosses and set pieces. Liverpool is second in the league in cross allowed per match, plus it has only surrendered four goals from set pieces this season.

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You can also look at how this bet has performed against similar competition. In games against Norwich City, Leeds United, Watford and Newcastle United, Liverpool produced a shutout against all but one and also kept a clean sheet in the first match against Burnley.

The Reds do have the first leg of their Round of 16 Champions League tie at Inter Milan in the midweek to worry about. This might cause their attacking players to come to the bench earlier than they normally would, but I don’t expect this to impact them on the defensive side.

Pick: Liverpool to Win to Nil (+105)

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