California drought conditions predicted to worsen in coming months, federal forecasters say

Serious drought conditions across California and the American West are expected to worsen this spring into early summer, with hotter-than-normal temperatures, reduced chances of rain, and increased fire risk likely, federal forecasters said Thursday.

The next three months through the end of June show little to no drought relief, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the parent agency of the National Weather Service.

“Concern is quite high as we go into the spring and early summer,” said Brad Pugh, operational drought lead for NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland. “The snowpack is below average for much of California, and there’s really very little time now to make up any precipitation deficits as we move into April.”

After two years of record-dry conditions, California had appeared to be coming out of its drought with heavy rains and snow in October and December. But January and February provided a complete reversal: They were the driest first two months in any year back to 1921, when records first began, in the Northern Sierra, the source of many of the watersheds that feed some of the state’s biggest reservoirs.

March has continued that dry pattern, and winter is nearly over.

Meanwhile Thursday, the US Drought Monitor, a weekly report from NOAA, the US Department of Agriculture and the University of Nebraska, reported that 93% of California is now in a severe drought — up from 87% a week ago — and 35% is in extreme drought, up from 13% last week.

All nine Bay Area counties are in severe drought, and the areas in extreme drought include much of the North Coast, including northern Sonoma and Mendocino counties, and the San Joaquin Valley, where farmers are already running short of water.

The winter rains that California did receive helped to temporarily reduce the percentage of the state that is in extreme drought. In early December before several big atmospheric river storms arrived, 80% of the state was in extreme drought.

But with seven months of hot, dry weather likely until the winter rainy season begins again next November, soils and vegetation will be drying out to dangerous levels, bringing an increased risk of wildfires for the third year in a row.

Scientists say climate change is making droughts worse across California, the West and other parts of the world. For many young people in California, drought has persisted for most of their lives.

The 10 hottest years on earth since 1880 have occurred since 2005, according to NASA and NOAA. When droughts do occur, as they have in the past, they are more severe now, scientists say.

“Warmer temperatures lead to increased evaporation, and decreased moisture in soils and reservoirs,” said Chris Field, director of Stanford University’s Woods Institute for the Environment.

On Friday, officials at the state Department of Water Resources are expected to reduce water allocations to cities and farms from the State Water Project, a massive system of dams, canals and pumps that stretches more than 600 miles from Oroville reservoir in Butte County to Lake Perris in Riverside County.

After the December rains, state officials said that most areas would receive 15% of their contracted water from the project. But given the dismal rainfall in January, February and March so far, that number is certain to fall. Roughly 25 million people in California, including residents of Santa Clara County, southern Alameda County, Los Angeles and San Diego, receive State Water Project water.