Friday, April 12

Can monkeypox become a pandemic?


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Cases of monkeypox in Spain are increasing every day. This Friday more cases have been confirmed and more suspects have been notified. In total they add up to more than thirty. However, this does not only happen in our country.

In addition to Africa, “where monkeypox is endemic” -according to Joan Carles March, professor at the Andalusian School of Public Health (EASP)- cases spread all over the world. So far, infections have been reported in the United Kingdom, Italy, Sweden, Germany, France, Portugal, Belgium, Australia, the United States and Canada.

“Cases are rising little by little and isolated in various countries where it is not usual for the virus to be found, but there are still few cases to be able to say that it is a pandemic», clarifies March.

According to international organizations, for a pandemic to emerge, the virus must be present on several continents and there must be community transmission. These two conditions are met, but the expert recalls that “it must affect a large number of people” and this is not yet the case.

Ángela Domínguez, from the working group on vaccination of the Spanish Society of Epidemiology and professor of preventive medicine and public health at the University of Barcelona, ​​is blunt: “Today, with the information we have, we can in no way say that we are at the start of a pandemic.

In addition, the expert recalls that monkeypox is not a new virus like SARS-CoV-2. This means that we have more information about the virus and that “not the entire population is susceptible because people vaccinated against smallpox have protection against this virus,” she says.

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Still, March asks do not trivialize the disease. «The Ministry of Health does well declaring the health alert. Has a lethality which varies from 1 to 21%”, he indicates. With whom he does not share an opinion is Fernando Simón, director of the Center for the Coordination of Health Alerts and Emergencies (CCAES). “I would not say that there will not be many cases. We don’t know that,” she says.

At the moment it has been suggested that the contagion is due to fluids, but March points out that “that is only part of it.” “The WHO says that it can also be spread by respiratory droplets and aerosols. This must be taken into account. What is clear is that for it to affect you, it has to be a close contact », she clarifies.

One of the most important aspects with a virus of these characteristics is detection, which is why the Public Health expert points out that “it is necessary to carry out a rapid training for healthcare professionals so that they can make an easy, fast and effective diagnosis».

It is also key to know what variant are we in, information that the National Microbiology Center of the Carlos III Health Institute has not provided. It also highlights the lack of agility to confirm cases. As of May 19, of the 30 samples analyzed, 23 are awaiting sequencing results.

“We are still in a pandemic, that of Covid. And if we have learned anything, it is that cases must be followed up and monitored, but measures must be taken and recommendations based on scientific evidence must be taken,” concludes Domínguez.

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