Carlos III, before the procession of referendums in the Commonwealth

The replacement on the throne of Elizabeth II, head of the Commonwealth for more than 70 years, by a not particularly popular successor is going to accelerate the conversion into republics of a notable group of countries that today have the English monarch as their head of state. In some places the debate goes back a long way and although governments such as those of Australia and New Zealand have decided these days to put the brakes on temporarily so as not to appear to be taking advantage of the death of Elizabeth II, there is no doubt that the end of such a long era offers the opportunity to seriously open a debate that many in the so-called ‘domains’ consider necessary. Carlos III has become King of 15 countries: the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea and Jamaica, as well as other islands in the Caribbean and Oceania. Elizabeth II came to reign in 32 countries, 17 of which later became republics. Both the first group and other countries that were territory of the British Empire constitute the Commonwealth of Nations, of which 56 States are part. Desktop code Image for mobile, amp and app Mobile code AMP code 3140 APP code While that organization can endure – and it is London’s diplomatic priority that it does so, given that Brexit forces the British to make the most of their other connections with the world–, the pre-eminence of the old metropolis will gradually lose strength, since each time Carlos III, who is head of the Commonwealth, will be able to speak directly on behalf of fewer countries. Over time, it could drift towards a tenuous ascendancy like that of Spain within the Ibero-American Community of Nations. The Crown Jewels The prime ministers of Australia and New Zealand had already raised in their respective countries the desire to review the relationship with the British monarchy. The Australian Anthony Albanese commented in June, before the deteriorating health of Elizabeth II was openly on the political agenda –although her nonagenarian age and her growing seclusion already heralded a not too distant succession to the Throne– the desire of his Government to propose a referendum for the conversion of Australia into a republic. Upon learning of the death of the Sovereign, Albanese preferred to postpone the process and address it not in the current mandate, which ends in 2025, but in the next one. Something similar has happened in New Zealand, where the prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, defender of the republic, has decided that the process towards a referendum will not be carried out in the current mandate, which must conclude at the beginning of 2024. Ardern conceives it, in in any case, as an unhurried development that will take time. “This is a broad and significant debate. I don’t think it is or should happen quickly,” she said, as the country has more pressing challenges to address. She considered, however, that she will live to see it. In the case of Canada, things seem more complex, in part because of the effect that the process may have on Quebec’s demand for independence. The surveys of months prior to the death of Elizabeth II placed the prospect of a republic in the realm of the possible but not close. Last December, a survey by the Angus Reid Institute indicated that 52% of the population was against maintaining the Monarchy indefinitely and 66% disliked the idea of ​​having Prince Charles as King. In Quebec, the rejection was greater: in August, 61% expressed their preference for the republic. A reform of these characteristics is not a mere change of head of state type. As in the Canadian case, the institutions related to the Crown are diverse and embedded in the political and social system, so that substantial adjustments to the Constitution are required. To be approved, they need to have a green light in each of the provinces that make up the country and that, in controversial procedures, is often uncertain. For the rest, any miscalculation by Ottawa could lead to the separation of Quebec, either because opening the constitutional debate is always a risk for national unity, or because if the desire for a republic is approved in the French-speaking territory and not in other parts of the country could lead Quebec into a situation of profound disaffection. Movements in the Caribbean Smaller countries can more easily accelerate their estrangement from the British Crown. Already in March, the Prime Minister of Jamaica, Andrew Holness, announced to Prince William and his wife, during a visit to the island, that he was going to promote a committee to reform the Constitution, with the aim of transforming the country in a republic around the next elections, scheduled for 2025. Jamaica had addressed Elizabeth II asking for reparation for England’s slave-owning past, which used a large number of slaves in forced labor on sugar cane, tobacco and other plantations. labor-intensive products from Jamaica and other Caribbean islands. Jamaica had already launched this transformation after another Caribbean country, Barbados, replaced the Queen with a female president in November 2021, in a formal act in which the Prince of Wales was present as head of the Commonwealth. That presence was interpreted as a message from Buckingham Palace indicating that a change of this type was not perceived with hostility from London, thus making it easier for that country to continue within the Commonwealth. In any case, Barbados reopened a dynamic that had stalled in the 1970s, with the transformation into republics of Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago, and Dominica. Another Caribbean country, Antigua and Barbuda, quickly announced in the wake of Elizabeth II’s death that it will hold a statehood referendum over the next three years. Prime Minister Gaston Browne presented it as “the final step in coming full circle from independence to truly being a sovereign nation.”


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