Good morning and welcome to our continued coverage of the world economy, financial markets, the eurozone and business.
China’s economy has quickly recovered from the pandemic depression, with factory output and consumer spending surging earlier this year.
Fresh economic data overnight smashed forecasts, with China Industrial production increasing by 35.1% year-on-year in the January-February period, the highest rebound recorded in decades.
Retail sales It also rose strongly, growing 33.8% in the first two months of 2021 compared to a year ago.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics said the latest increase was partly due to distortions from the “low base in the same period” last year, when the Covid-19 pandemic forced China’s economy into a strict lockdown. .
But the data also underscores how China’s economy is experiencing a relatively rapid recovery, certainly compared to the UK (where GDP fell in January) and Europe (which has likely slipped into a double dip recession).
National Bureau of Standards Spokeswoman Liu Aihua warned that the economic outlook was fragile and said:
“COVID-19 is still spreading around the world and global economic conditions are complex and severe; at the national level, the recovery imbalances remain fairly obvious. “
The data also highlights that China’s economy still relies on manufacturing for growth, despite efforts by lawmakers to rebalance toward services.
As Bloomberg puts it:
Combined with strong export data for January and February, statistics show that China has largely continued the pattern established last year of a recovery based on growth in industrial production for export and investment in sectors such as the real estate, delaying Beijing’s efforts to rebalance the economy toward domestic consumer demand.
However, there were some disappointments in the data. Urban unemployment it increased to 5.5% in February, from 5.2% in December, suggesting that some companies are encountering more difficult conditions.
Y investment growth in fixed assets it was below forecasts: jumping 35% year-on-year, compared to forecasts of a jump of 40.0%.
Reaction to follow …
Also comes today
Hopes for a strong economic rebound in the US and beyond are expected to push European markets a bit higher, after President Joe Biden signed his $ 1.9 trillion stimulus bill late in the month. last week.
But investors will be watching the bond market with concern. On Friday, the yield on 10-year US government bonds soared, a key measure of US borrowing costs, hitting a one-year high.
That suggests investors are pricing in rising inflation alongside faster growth and the prospect of a central bank tightening.
Kyle rodda of I G Explain:
“US equities ended Friday’s trade at record levels, as strong growth in the value rotation, supported by optimism about the prospects for global growth and the subsequent rise in global bond yields, kept the reflation alive. .
There is no question that markets remain on a tightrope: while, as central bankers continue to plead, rising global yield curves are a positive sign, certainly manifesting in sections of the stock market, the impact of higher returns on financial conditions and tight valuations in some areas of the equity market keep market participants wary of increased volatility and downward pressure on risk assets. “
Britain’s inflation basket is shaking today. The Office for National Statistics will announce which new energetic products and services are being added to reflect changes in consumer spending and which are the old and dusty ones that are being rolled out.
- All day: meeting of the Eurogroup of finance ministers of the eurozone
- 9.30 a. M. GMT: annual changes in the UK inflation basket
- 12.30 pm GMT: New York Empire State Manufacturing Index
George is Digismak’s reported cum editor with 13 years of experience in Journalism