The Madrid elections of the next 4-M will be very close, according to the scenario drawn by the barometer of the Sociological Research Center (CIS). The poll, published this Monday, gives victory to the PP candidate, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, with a 32% intention to vote and 59 seats, and places her with the possibility of achieving 68 deputies, to a majority seat in the Madrid Assembly, if it adds its support with those of Vox, to which it grants 5.4% of the votes and nine seats. The poll also grants 68 deputies to the bloc on the left. PSOE would obtain 25.3% of the votes and 38 seats; More Madrid, 14.8% and 20 deputies; and Podemos, 8.7% in vote and 10 representatives. The study leaves both Ciudadanos – which would achieve 4.4% of the votes below the 5% limit – and Vox – with 5.4% – at risk of losing their representation in the Madrid Chamber.
The absolute majority after the elections of the next 4-M will not be located in the current 67 seats, but it will take 69 deputies to obtain it. Instead of the 132 representatives in the current legislature, 136 will be elected in the next, by virtue of the population growth of the last register. In 2019, the Madrid president ruled with 30 seats despite the fact that the PSOE won the elections with 37, thanks to the fact that it added with Ciudadanos en coalición (26) and Vox supporting from outside (12).
The tie between the block on the right and the left drawn by the poll has not been without controversy. The co-founder and main researcher of Metroscopia, José Pablo Ferrándiz, considers that the seats granted by the center directed by José Félix Tezanos are erroneous: “We do not question the CIS vote estimate, but there is a mathematical error in the calculation of seats . If this were the final result of the 4-M, those would not be the deputies that would correspond in the Assembly ”. Ferrándiz explains that the numbers are stubborn, and, when entering the estimated percentages in a D’Hondt simulator – a formula that allows obtaining the number of elected positions in each candidacy, in proportion to the votes obtained – that number of seats should not come out. . According to his calculations, according to the vote estimate, the bloc on the left would obtain 70 deputies and would surpass the right, with 66 representatives.
In the last poll of a regional election, on the Catalan elections of February 4, the CIS offered its estimate of seats in hairpins. The Madrid barometer contains closed numbers. In the CIS they allege that, as it is a single constituency, there is no obligation or need to put hairpins. “Each survey has a specific procedure, and this is as valid as any other. It can be weighted with the vote count, but it has been modulated with the latest monthly barometers that have been in the CIS ”, he summarizes. “Precisely because it is a single constituency, it is less complicated to calculate. It is more evident ”, considers Ferrándiz.
Iglesias, the worst valued candidate
The Madrid barometer places the socialist candidate, Ángel Gabilondo, as the best valued with a 5.6 out of 10. Only he and the More Madrid candidate, Mónica García, approve, who receives a 5.4 from Madrid. The regional president, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, fails with a 4.9. Neither does the Citizen leader, Edmundo Bal, who obtains a 4.3, nor the Vox candidate, Rocío Monasterio, who remains in the penultimate position with a 3.6. The worst valued candidate for the Madrid elections is that of United We Can. Pablo Iglesias achieves a 3.2 out of 10.
The Madrid elections, which Díaz Ayuso called in advance on March 10 after hearing the motion of the PSOE and Ciudadanos to unseat the popular Fernando López Miras from power in Murcia, are decisive for the right. If on May 4 Ayuso can govern, it is most likely that a new phase will open in which the PP ally will cease to be Citizens to become Vox.
The Madrid barometer of the CIS has obtained the opinion of 4,300 people between March 19 and 28. In the days when the interviews were conducted, the management of the pandemic and the fourth wave have been protagonists. Specifically, the vaccination campaign has monopolized the political debate in Madrid less than a month before the 4-M elections. The candidates have launched all kinds of reproaches in this regard. Last Tuesday, the socialist Gabilondo warned about the “inadmissible disregard” that meant “stopping vaccinating until April 5”, coinciding with the Holy Week holidays. Díaz Ayuso replied: “The news that the Community of Madrid does not vaccinate at Easter is false.”
The results of the CIS arrive on the same day that the immunization plan for those over 80 years of age is resumed after suspending it due to the closure of the outpatient clinics since Maundy Thursday. Both this closure and the long queues in the spaces where immunization has continued have been highly criticized by the opposition, since Madrid is the sixth territory, including the cities of Ceuta and Melilla, with the worst percentage of vaccinated. “Freedom is anything but the riot of circulating the virus,” criticized the Prime Minister on Sunday in his third pre-campaign act with Gabilondo.
The conclusions of this latest study contrast with the polls published in recent weeks, since until now there was no talk of a tie between the bloc on the right and the left. The first polls published between March 15 and April 4, such as that of Sigma Dos last Sunday, suggest that the PP would win with around 38% of the votes and Ayuso would obtain 61-62 deputies. Ángel Gabilondo’s PSOE, which won the 2019 elections with 37 deputies, would become second force with 25% of the votes and taking 33-35 seats, while Podemos, led by Pablo Iglesias, would get 8% of the votes and would thus rise to 11-12 seats compared to the current 7. Vox would achieve 10% of the votes, taking 10-11 seats and would fall from the 12-13 that the last poll gave it, thus contesting the third place with Más Madrid, which has a forecast of 11% of the votes and about 18 -20 seats. Ciudadanos would obtain 4% of the votes, below the 5% limit, and would be left without representation.
Eddie is an Australian news reporter with over 9 years in the industry and has published on Forbes and tech crunch.