Thursday, March 28

Climate change will reduce Spain’s GDP between 2.5% and 9.7% in 2030



The climate crisis is having a full impact on the balance sheet of the major world economies. For the first time, a study quantifies how GDP will be affected by the climate change we are experiencing and shows various scenarios, depending on the severity with which this phenomenon develops.

In the case of Spain, within 28 years we will have already lost 2.5% of GDP. This will happen even if the emission reduction objective of the Paris Agreement is reached, so that the temperature does not rise more than 1.5º by the end of the century. That is the most ambitious scenario and the most difficult to achieve. But if it were to be achieved, the 2.5% drop in GDP in 2050 for Spain is assured.

If, on the other hand, the temperature rises 2ºC, then the loss of GDP in Spain by 2030 will reach 7%, and it may fall 9.7% in the case of a temperature rise of 3.2ºC, which would occur in the most pessimistic emissions scenario.

The values ​​of variation of GDP in Spain offered by the report prepared by the Swiss reinsurer SwissRe are very similar to those of Europe as a whole. However, there are regions of the planet where the situation will be considerably worse.

Pollution Pixabay


According to this SwissRe report, in the whole of the Earth 4.2% of GDP will be lost in 2050 if the Paris Agreements are fulfilled, 11% if the temperature rises only a little more than expected in said agreement, 13.9% if it rises to 2.6ºC and nothing less than 18.1% if it climbs at 3.2ºC.

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The worst-performing areas will be Africa and Asia, with a fall in its GDP that will oscillate between 5% in the most optimistic case (as expected in Paris) and 27% in the most pessimistic case.

This loss of economic capacity will be the consequence of rising sea levels, the reduction of land used for cultivation, the loss of biodiversity, the increase in natural disasters and other direct consequences of climate change.

The research carried out has taken into account a total of 48 countries that represent 90% of the world economy.

The country that would suffer the most the consequences would also be the one that emits the most greenhouse gases into the atmosphere: China, which if it does not act quickly could lose up to 24% of its wealth. But there are more extreme cases. If courageous measures are not taken, India may lose up to 35% of GDP in a severe scenario in the middle of the century.

Arid terrain in Contreras (Valencia) FERNANDO BUSTAMANTE


“It is imperative to take more measures to mitigate climate change. The risks posed must be managed through coordinated global action, including heavy investments in infrastructure ”, the authors of the report point out.

It is also necessary to increase the “coordination between the three main carbon emitters (China, with 28%; the US, with 15%, and India, with 7%), which account for about half of all emissions.”

Those most affected, those with the fewest resources

The countries most affected are often those with the fewest resources to adapt and mitigate the effect of rising global temperatures.

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“Our Climate Economy Index incorporates the economic impact of gradual climate change, countries’ vulnerability to extreme wet and dry weather events, and their ability to adapt,” the report states.

Index rankings show that advanced markets, such as Germany, benefit from both lower exposures and greater resources to counter the effects of climate change.

In contrast, many emerging markets, which will also contribute increasingly to global growth in the future, are highly exposed and have few resources to adapt.

“Are needed global policy measures to ensure equitable progress in green economies, both for local benefit and to make the global economy more resilient in the long run, ”the document states.

Reference report: https://www.swissre.com/institute/research/topics-and-risk-dialogues/climate-and-natural-catastrophe-risk/expertise-publication-economics-of-climate-change.html


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