State of Colorado vs. Wyoming dues
After an exciting Friday night in the Mountain West in which Wyoming outscored the Air Force, Boise State stunned Fresno State in a late comeback and Colorado State lost at home by double digits, the league returns with another excellent matchup on Monday. at night when Colorado State visits Wyoming.
Wyoming and Colorado State have lost the rhythm set by Boise State atop the Mountain West in the past week after the Cowboys lost by three at Boise State and the Rams were upset at home by UNLV on Friday night. The Cowboys sit second at 5-1 thanks to their excellent jump shooting in the league, while the Rams fell to 6-2 but have benefited from a soft league schedule thus far.
Both teams have their issues defensively, but Monday night’s game is without a doubt a matchup between the two best offenses in the league and two of the best midfield offenses in the entire country.
Both love to shoot 3s and do them at a pretty high rate, while Wyoming runs their offense through star big man Graham Ike and the Rams run theirs through point guard Isaiah Stevens and forward David Roddy. There is bound to be drama when these two teams meet in Laramie on Monday, so let’s dig into the matchup.
Some cracks have started to appear for Colorado State as the conference kicked off, even though the 6-2 record is still impressive. The 3-point regression has arrived (the Rams weren’t going to shoot 43% of their deep shots all year), but interior defensive problems have been more exposed this year than at any time last year.
The transition defense is also in the bottom 50 in the country according to ShotQuality and that’s a huge red flag against teams that can pick up the pace or turn them around. That was a problem against San Diego State in that 30-point loss, but I don’t see it as a problem in this matchup with the Cowboys.
Neither offense is good at offensive rebounding in this game, and neither defense allows many second-chance opportunities because both prefer to play halfcourt offense. Colorado State defends both the midrange and the 3-point line at an above-average rate per SQ, but struggles with posts and spikes at the rim.
The Rams are seriously undersized, and that means a matchup with Ike is a problem. That’s just 250 in the rate of allowed field goals, according to Haslametrics. But if you can get past that matchup with Ike on the interior, the Rams have decisive perimeter advantages.
Wyoming’s defense ranks 126th in adjusted KenPom efficiency, but there are reasons to be skeptical about those numbers and some regression indicators that offer concerns for the Cowboys’ defense.
First, Wyoming does very little to throw the opposing offense out of rhythm or keep it from looking good. The Cowboys are in the bottom 50 in block rate, forced turnovers and steals. That means CSU should be able to run their four or even five-move offense comfortably and not worry about Wyoming applying ball pressure to get them off their sets.
The Cowboys also rank in the bottom 50 in screen defense, something Colorado State does with tremendous frequency and efficiency. Despite having Ike in the middle, they also don’t dominate the paint defensively. Teams have a lot of success attacking the rim against them, and Stevens is sure to find success creating dribbles in this game.
That brings us to Wyoming’s 3-point defense. The Cowboys rank 69th in 3-point defense this season according to ShotQuality, but no one has done anything from deep against them. Teams are shooting 29% from 3 against Wyoming this year, and that’s unsustainable.
Colorado State vs. Wyoming Betting Tip
As impressive as Wyoming’s half-court offense is, a major regression in half-court defense is coming for the Cowboys, especially from beyond the 3-point line. An elite jump shooting team like Colorado State is poised to exploit an overrated perimeter defense.
The venue is excellent for the state of Colorado after an embarrassing loss at home to UNLV by double figures three days ago. Wyoming doesn’t have a shooting guard who can dominate and take charge of a game from the dribble like Bryce Hamilton, as much as I like Hunter Maldonado as a Wyoming player.
The Rams have major flaws defensively in transition, but Wyoming isn’t a team that gives them up or takes advantage of that. If this turns into a half-court game, which I suspect it will, Colorado State is the considerably better team in terms of shooting talent and athleticism.
I wouldn’t put any points on the road here in a pretty tough gym to play, but if the money line is -120 or cheaper, I’d play the Rams to bounce back from the loss to UNLV and get second place in the conference. with a win
To choose: State of Colorado -110 | Play up to -120
How would you rate this item?
www.actionnetwork.com
George is Digismak’s reported cum editor with 13 years of experience in Journalism