ARLINGTON, Texas – Championship Saturday started here in central Texas just as we had all expected: with chaos.
Baylor’s defense stifled Oklahoma State, producing a goal-line position to beat the fifth-place Cowboys, 21-16. It opened the door for a shakeup in the current top four, which could pave the way for Notre Dame and its new 35-year-old head coach to reach the college football playoff.
And then came more chaos. Alabama surprised Georgia by winning the SEC championship. In a way, the chaos on Saturday actually led to … calm?
The selection committee’s first job, picking the top four teams, became much easier despite the unexpected fireworks on Saturday (both Bama and Baylor were basically underdogs by six points). The top four from last week will almost certainly be the top four on Sunday at noon ET when the selections are announced: Alabama, Cincinnati, Michigan, Georgia.
The real decision: what order to put them?
Certainly not in the order above. Although they are not supposed to consider pairings when planting, the committee members are to do so. And they will. Don’t give us a rematch of the game for the SEC title. Do not do it.
If you create the seeding with that in mind, you will invariably end up with one of two options:
1. Alabama
2. Michigan
3. Georgia
4. Cincinnati
OR…
1. Michigan
2. Alabama
3. Cincinnati
4. Georgia
Here’s our guess: the committee picks first (the Tide will be the No. 1 seed). That said, the Wolverines have an argument. In fact, let’s dive into the digits.
Alabama has three victories in the top 25; Michigan has two. Alabama has two top-10 wins; Michigan has one. Heading into the weekend, Alabama had a schedule of 18; Michigan was at 36. Alabama lost to No. 25 Texas A&M; Michigan lost to No. 11 Michigan state.
The Bearcats’ schedule strength (87th) is 36 points worse than the next best schedule strength among the four teams (Georgia has 51). That is why they are destined for the fourth position.
For the second time in the past five years, two SEC teams (the Bulldogs and Tide also made it in 2017) will make the Playoffs. And for the first time in history, a program for groups of 5 is included.
The Playoff is gearing up to be the SEC against the world. Alabama vs. Cincinnati is the SEC vs. the Group of 5. Georgia vs. Michigan is the SEC vs. the Alliance. Fun!
Seed No. 1 takes precedence at its semi-final spot. Barring something unforeseen, Nick Saban is taking over Dallas over Miami, right?
Think about it. You will want to control the environment with a closed space and limit distractions / temptations as much as possible. This is a simple decision. Tide vs. Bearcats at the Cotton Bowl and Wolverines vs. Bulldogs at the Orange Bowl.
In fact, this is the least suspenseful screening program in, perhaps, the event’s eight years. There is no fight for No. 4. There is no such close battle for first place. You can’t have a rematch. It’s a pretty easy top four.
It has not always been this way, of course. Just last year, 8-1 Texas A&M stayed home in favor of 10-1 Notre Dame. In 2019, Oklahoma with one loss beat Georgia with two losses. The year before, 12-1 Ohio State and 12-0 UCF trailed 12-1 Oklahoma. In 2014, Ohio State edged out a pair of 11-1 Big 12 teams, TCU and Baylor.
This year there is no drama. No anxiety.
Those left out in 2021 have no real legitimate argument. Notre Dame lost 11-1 at home to alleged No. 4 seed Cincinnati. And 11-2 Baylor lost a game to 5-7 TCU.
Wild as it is, chaos broke out on Saturday. But it led, of all things, to calm.
More college football coverage:
• Georgia’s narrative restarts after another loss to Bama
• Alabama’s O-Line got huge against Georgia
• Dave Aranda’s Meteoric Rise Reaches New Peak
• Within the wild week you can change CFB forever
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Eddie is an Australian news reporter with over 9 years in the industry and has published on Forbes and tech crunch.