DCarpet makers led by US firms Pfizer and Moderna can earn tens of billions of dollars from their Covid-19 vaccines this year and next, given the promise of G7 governments to vaccinate the entire world by the end of 2022, but sales are likely to drop dramatically. thereafter, according to analysts.
Hailed for allowing a return to a more normal life, Covid vaccines will also substantially benefit some pharmaceutical companies. The global market for vaccines is worth $ 70bn (£ 50bn) this year, says Karen Andersen of Morningstar.
Pfizer and Moderna, which charge more than $ 30 per person for the two required intakes in Europe and the United States, will get the lion’s share. Analysts believe they could collect more than $ 50 billion in revenue from their Covid hits this year. Meanwhile, British-Swedish AstraZeneca and American Johnson & Johnson have pledged to provide their vaccines on a non-profit basis until the pandemic ends.
Last month, Pfizer predicted it would make $ 26 billion from its hit in 2021, a third of annual revenue. This was based on orders received in mid-April so this is likely an understatement. Morgan Stanley analysts led by David Risinger raised their estimates for Pfizer to $ 33 billion in 2021 and $ 32 billion in 2022, halving to $ 16.5 billion in 2023 and $ 8.2 billion in 2024.
“We expect the world to be essentially vaccinated by the end of 2022, so by 2023 and beyond, sales will consist primarily of the minimum age cohort and boosters,” Risinger said. “We expect the data to support the adoption of boosters in 2022, but we don’t know if long-term annual boosters will be necessary.”
Barclays analyst Carter Gould predicts even higher revenue for Pfizer this year: $ 38 billion, falling to around $ 17 billion in 2022, $ 8.5 billion in 2023, and $ 6.3 billion in 2024.
Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said in May that the company had agreed to supply 116 countries and was in negotiations with many more for a total of 2.7 billion doses in 2021. Two-fifths, more than a billion, were expected to doses, go to half – and low-income countries.
Moderna, which got funding from the U.S. government to develop its vaccine, made its first quarterly profit from the jab and expects to generate revenue of $ 19.2 billion as it aims to produce 1 billion doses this year and up to 3 billion. the next.
Barclays analyst Gena Wang forecast slightly higher sales of $ 19.6 billion, falling to $ 12.2 billion in 2022 and around $ 11 billion in each of the next two years. Morgan Stanley analysts have calculated $ 13.5 billion next year, falling to $ 12.5 billion in 2023 and 2024.
This is the largest global vaccination campaign in history. More than 2.5 billion doses have been administered in 180 countries, according to data published by Bloomberg, enough to fully vaccinate 16.4% of the world’s population. However, the distribution has been highly uneven, with higher-income countries and regions vaccinated more than 30 times faster than those with lower incomes.
Johnson & Johnson, which charges the US government $ 10 per dose for its single-shot vaccine, is likely to generate $ 6.6 billion in revenue this year, based on calculations made by Barclays in March, followed by $ 1.2 billion. in 2022 and $ 383 million in 2023. For AstraZeneca, which charges between $ 4.30 and $ 10 for two doses, Barclays forecasts $ 5.2 billion in sales in 2021, falling to $ 2.3 billion and $ 475 million over the next two years. .
Other Covid vaccines that could generate billions of dollars for their manufacturers include the CoronaVac jab developed by China’s Sinovac and Russia’s Sputnik V. Sinovac, which is listed on Nasdaq, has built factories capable of producing 2 billion doses a year. and reported a four-fold increase in sales to $ 328 million between October and December.
Two more new vaccines, from the American Novavax and the German CureVac, have suffered delays. A Novavax report of 90% efficacy after trials in the United States and Mexico sent its shares skyrocketing last week. After the manufacturing problems, the company hopes to apply for regulatory approval in the US before the end of September.
The UK has ordered 60 million doses of the Novavax injection, which will be manufactured in Stockton-on-Tees. Novavax also agreed to provide 1.1 billion doses to Covax, the UN-led initiative to bring vaccines to the poorest countries.
In March, its CEO, Stan Erck, spoke about “the potential for several billion dollars in revenue in the next 12 months.” Barclays forecasts revenue of $ 7.7 billion for Novavax in 2021, falling to $ 1.8 billion and $ 538 million over the next two years.
The CureVac jab would be the world’s third-largest Covid mRNA vaccine, after Pfizer and Moderna, but it was only 47% effective against coronavirus in an interim analysis of late-stage trials published last week. It did not meet statistical criteria for success, said the Tübingen-based company, which is 23% owned by the German government and received funding to develop the vaccine. CureVac’s share price plunged 40% on Thursday.
George is Digismak’s reported cum editor with 13 years of experience in Journalism