As the threat of the Omicron wave has receded in England, the government has been quick to move the conversation on to “living with Covid”.
It was inevitable that this would mean the eventual lifting of legal restrictions, including the need to self-isolate. But even given the optimistic tone in recent weeks, Boris Johnson’s announcement on Wednesday came sooner than many expected.
While he signalled the scrapping of restrictions in England by 24 February – a month earlier than had originally been planned – he provided no detail.
It is unclear whether any specific scientific advice was provided on the impact of the move – none has been published – and some of the latest evidence published by the government’s Sage advisers gives an idea of potential risks.
An assessment in mid-January concluded that lifting of plan B measures could result in a return to epidemic growth, “particularly if precautionary behaviour, including testing, decreases as a result of reduced perception of risk”. Since then, case numbers have remained high and on Wednesday figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that in England infection levels rose to one in 19 people in the first week of February.
But those figures are not as frightening as they once were.
Vaccines and immunity from infection mean that a large surge of cases no longer translates to tens of thousands of deaths. Nevertheless, the Sage analysis points out that another increase could result in “a sustained period of high levels of hospitalisations [that] would have detrimental consequences for the NHS”, at a time when waiting lists are at a record high.