Cuellar in danger as Texas primary votes roll in

Meanwhile, progressives and pro-Trump hardliners are facing off against more moderate candidates for a handful of open, safely red or blue congressional seats elsewhere in Austin, Houston and Dallas. The winners of those contests will be heavily favored to come to Congress next year — though some may have to fight through May primary runoffs first.

Unlike in 2020, there will be few competitive congressional races in Texas thanks in part to aggressive GOP-controlled redistricting. But South Texas has emerged as a new battleground — and Texas Latinos as a new bloc of swing voters. Republicans will choose nominees to challenge Democrats’ longstanding dominance of the counties along the Mexico border.

Nominations for major statewide offices are also up for grabs in Texas Tuesday. Former President Donald Trump has weighed in on nearly all of the races, backing a slate of Republican incumbents — some with serious primary challengers, some without — in a year that is expected to be a banner midterm for the state Republican Party.

Polls closed at 8 pm Eastern in most of the state, though some of the western-most counties in Texas will close their polls an hour later.

The fight for South Texas is on

Often dubbed the “King of Laredo,” Cuellar only narrowly beat Cisneros in 2020 — by less than 2,700 votes. Now she’s back for a rematch and her supporters include some of the biggest names on the left, such as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (DN.Y.) and Sen. Bernie Sander (I-Vt.).

Cuellar, one of the few remaining Democrats in Congress to oppose abortion rights, has outspent Cisneros by a 2:1 margin, but he is running under the cloud of a federal investigation that became public when law enforcement raided his offices last month. He has not been charged with a crime, but his campaigning has turned anemic in the final stretch.

No matter who emerges from the primary for Cuellar’s seat, Republicans plan to compete there in the fall. President Joe Biden would have carried the district by 7 points under the new lines, and all three Rio Grande Valley congressional districts saw a massive swing to the right after the 2020 election.

The most competitive district in the 15th District, which lies in the middle of the valley. Former President Donald Trump notched a 3-point win in this district, which is open after Democratic Rep. Vincent Gonzalez decided to run in an open, more Democratic-friendly district to the east. The GOP frontrunner is Monica De La Cruz, who nearly ousted Gonzalez in 2020. Democratic candidates include Ruben Ramirez and Eliza Alvarado.

GOP expects to extend statewide dominance—after some major primaries

Both parties are also setting up general election matchups, in a year when Republicans have the wind at their backs.

GOP Gov. Greg Abbott, who is seeking a third term, drew a couple of well-known or well-financed primary challengers, including former state party chair Allen West — previously a Florida congressman — and former state Sen. Don Huffins. But they never gained significant traction, and Abbott cruised to renomination.

Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke is the Democratic nominee, having only faced nominal opposition in the primary. Abbott, though, is the favorite heading into the general election, boosted by factors from early polling leads to major fundraising (over $62 million in the bank) to the Republican lean in Texas and, so far this year, in national surveys. Early polling has had Abbott ahead of O’Rourke, and the incumbent will far outstrip his likely challenge financially.

Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton has the most competitive statewide primary of any incumbent, running under 50 percent of the vote, which would pull him into a primary runoff. Paxton has been marred by various legal and ethical challenges since taking office and drew a field of challengers that include state Land Commissioner George P. Bush — the grandson of the 41st president and the nephew of the 43rd — as well as Rep. Louie Gohmert and former state Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman.

Paxton is perhaps best known nationally for leading other Republican attorneys general attempts to throw out the results of the 2020 election, which was rejected by the US Supreme Court.

Trump has weighed in on the major statewide races, backing incumbents including Abbott, Paxton, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (who is only facing nominal opposition) and state Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller, who is also facing a serious primary threat.

House Republicans battle over shape of potential majority

Only two Texas Republican incumbents are retiring in 2022: Rep. Kevin Bradyin the Houston suburbs, and Gohmert in East Texas.

A crowded primary to succeed Brady has delved into a proxy war between competing wings of the party — with big potential implications for House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy. McCarthy has lined up behind Morgan Luttrell, a former Navy SEAL-turned-cognitive scientist who also has endorsements from former Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Patrick, the lieutenant governor.

Luttrell is the frontrunner, but MAGA hardliners have rallied behind Christian Collins, a conservative activist who is hoping to force Luttrell into a runoff. Rep. Madison Cawthorn (RN.C.) and Marjorie TaylorGreene (R-Ga.), among others, joined Collins for a campaign event last month and cast him as someone who would govern in their image. At stake is whether McCarthy, who is preparing for the speakership if Republicans win the House, would have a majority aligned with his policy goals or one with a significant faction of rabble-rousers willing to derail it.

A few GOP incumbents are also facing primary challenges Tuesday — though few of their opponents are well-funded. Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas), who has recently sparred with the House Freedom Caucus, has a comfortable lead over challengers running to his right. ButRep. van taylor (R-Texas) was in danger of getting pulled into a runoff in his district, with two primary challengers, Keith Self and Suzanne Harp, pulling in significant support.

The race to replace Gohmert, who is running for state attorney general, has been a sleepier affair. Smith County Judge Nathaniel Moran is the frontrunner.

Safe blue seats give first hint at future of Democrats in Washington

Progressives are hoping to stage a 2022 comeback in Texas after a 2021 full of tough losses in special congressional elections, statewide primaries and mayoral contests. Cisneros has drawn the most attention, but two open seats in Austin and Dallas also feature left-leaning front-runners.

Former Austin City Councilmember Greg Casar, a progressive, opened up a big lead over state Rep. Eddie Rodriguez, who has been endorsed by the moderate New Democrat Coalition Action Fund, for a deep blue central Texas seat that stretches from Austin to San Antonio.

In North Texas, a bevy of Democrats are seeking to replace retiring Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson. The left has lined up behind state Rep. Jasmine Crockett, a Sanders-world leader running with Johnson’s endorsement. But even as Crockett built a big lead, the presence of eight other Democrats in the race means the primary may well head to a runoff.