Monday, October 18

Despite the EU’s missteps, despite vaccines, Brexit will remain a serious mistake | Brexit


“MEUrophiles have finally had their eyes open to the dire reality of the EU. “That’s Daniel Hannan, the former MEP, basking in the Sunday Telegraph. The Brexiter jubilation is painfully potent this week, a visceral blow for us who they are left, eliminated to find that Boris Johnson is right and that the European Union is behaving scandalously.

The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, a doctor and mother of seven children, fell from her superwoman pedestal. Through four excruciating years of misbehaving Britain, the EU was the adult, steadfast and patient negotiators with our mob of child lawbreakers. This reversal of roles (temporary, we hope) leaves the rest dumbfounded.

Pandemic pressure weakened the EU’s glue as 27 countries argued over how much vaccine to buy at what cost as Britain moved ahead with an open wallet. However, some things cannot be left unsaid: Von der Leyen’s threat to break the fragile Northern Ireland protocol and close the Irish border opened several doors to hell. The DUP and Brexit fanatic MPs were quick to use it as a means to break the deal in their quest for the nonexistent good Brexit.

UK ministers have suddenly assumed an unusual dignity, under strict instructions number 10 not to salt the wounds of EU vaccines – they even offer Britain’s leftovers. But there is a reason for this new courtesy. Because, beyond the vaccine wars, Brexit is unraveling before their eyes and they know it. The five major business groups led by the Confederation of British Industry He delivered the news to them with both barrels: “Absolute carnage!”, “Dante’s fifth circle of hell,” says manufacturers’ organization Make UK.

The government falsely replies that all is quiet in the ports; but that’s only because a third less traffic is going both ways and may never return. Stocks will run out, 1,000 cars from a single factory will be parked waiting for spare parts, and things will get worse. One year before Brexit, the Institute of Directors warned that a third of companies would move their operations to the EU, and it is happening, with a hemorrhage of tax revenues and jobs. This is not a “teething problem” but extractions without anesthesia.

Despite this latest example of the EU’s failures, despite our relief at getting vaccinated faster than other Europeans, leaving the union will continue to prove a fatal mistake for years to come. Brexit is not going away.

Conservatives hoped to organize the next election as “Keep Brexit Done”, while Labor hoped never to talk about Brexit again. “Forward, not backward,” says Keir Starmer, to focus on the economy, jobs, public services, climate and equity. But now it is clear that neither side can evade the uncomfortable questions about Brexit. For conservatives, the voter challenge will be: you lied and now look what you’ve done. Labor is this: to repair means to rejoin the single market, but do you dare to defend freedom of movement?

Right now, the politics of the pandemic dominate. In May comes an important test: the United Kingdom votes for councils and mayors. The government hopes that by then easing the blockade will maximize the rebound in vaccines. Political scientist Professor John Curtice tells me that he expects a profit-and-loss trade, but not a landslide by any means – both sides are driving downward expectations. These elections mean that the March budget will extend licenses for four million people, with support for businesses for longer. That £ 20 a week for universal credit is a certainty. A hint of future fat corporate taxes and capital gains will come with a lot of “recovery plan” rhetoric. Expect little of austerity to reduce the deficit that is certainly on the chancellor’s mind.

As is their custom, Labor supporters and some MPs are saddened. Starmer does not break through, is not visible and voters don’t know, find Britain Thinks. Do you have a big plan for Britain? Where is your vision? Labor people are bad at patience. He has only been in office for 10 months and has fallen into a plague; in five months he had eliminated Labor’s 20-point deficit, mainly by not being Jeremy Corbyn. With unseen personal qualifications on a Labor leader since Tony Blair’s heyday, on a New Statesman chart of decades of popularity from opposition leaders, it does well.

Jeremy Hunt this weekend called Starmer the biggest threat from the Conservatives since Blair, warning he could provoke the “1948 moment”- the year the NHS was founded. A serious, decent, and respected shadow cabinet may not be famous yet, but that’s better than being as infamous as many Johnson round tables are. Right now, with the people yearning more for security and freedom from confinement, I doubt that the opposition’s grand plan for the future will be very successful. However, terribly soon, the country will need manpower.

By all forecasts, the end of the leave will bring a tsunami of unemployment – that needs job solutions, not the paltry Kickstart so far. just helping 2,000 young people. An exhausted NHS faces a waiting list of 4.5 million people: Austerity had caused long delays before Covid. The government’s welfare reform has faded, while paralyzed city councils are on the brink of bankruptcy. Tory leveling will fail; Work is better in social justice. Cop26 will allow Johnson to showcase climate projects, but Labor’s new green deal offers real climate jobs.

Conservative voices already reject IMF requests for investment in lieu of cuts; A Keynesian Labor plan may be more appealing to businesses outraged by Brexit damage and small businesses that Covid has left on the brink of bankruptcy. If there is a brief bounce from the vaccine, remember this bitter lesson: Voters are not grateful. They didn’t do it because Churchill won the war, nor because of Attlee’s NHS, nor will Johnson’s thanks for vaccines last long. Voters choose the best future – that’s what Labor offers.

On the occasion of the first anniversary of Brexit, Johnson repeated grand words from last year: “The destiny of this great nation now rests firmly in our hands. I assume this duty with a sense of purpose. ”That nonsense may not have aged well by this time next year.


www.theguardian.com

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