Silenced on social media, repudiated by the establishment Republican, abandoned by a rosary of his senior Cabinet officials and defeated at the polls, Donald Trump has never been as alone as these days. His last great battle against the United States system, overturning the result of the presidential elections by spreading baseless accusations of fraud, served as the final test of loyalty, also of democratic strengths, and the president fared badly.
William Barr, appointed attorney general by Trump himself, found no basis for that alleged grand corrupt operation before resigning in December; the republican officials of the states whose scrutiny the president was arguing resisted his pressure; the Supreme Court, with a conservative majority and with three of the nine magistrates appointed by him, decided unanimously not to get involved; and at the last minute, last Wednesday, when Congress was to certify the electoral victory of Democrat Joe Biden in Washington, only a handful of acolyte legislators dared to torpedo him.
That day, written forever in the history books, the New York magnate planned to make a new show of force. In the morning, before the members of the Capitol met to ratify Biden, he called a rally next to the White House in front of a huge number of followers who had come from all over the country. Then, he encouraged them to march to protest before Congress, to be strong, to recover the country without weakness.
Until January 6, Donald Trump had prepared a post-presidential stage in the first line of fire, remaining a pre-eminent voice of the conservative electorate. He had even anticipated his intentions to run again in the 2024 elections and, according to his entourage to the press, he planned to formally announce it on the same day that Joe Biden took office, January 20. Nobody loves a good show as much as this 74-year-old builder who won the most powerful presidency in the world by jumping into politics from reality shows. Annoyed with the line of the conservative chain Fox —another abandonment, for his liking—, he thought to launch his own platform to continue connecting with his bases. The bottom line was the control of the Republican electorate. Some members of his family, such as his daughter, Ivanka, or his eldest son, Donald, have also considered launching into a political career. Ultimately, for the Trumps, politics had only just begun.
All these plans have been complicated for Trump after the violent assault of his ultras on Congress, a revolt instigated by his campaign in recent months in which five people have died and which has put the image of the United States, the most powerful democracy in the world. world, at the feet of the horses.
The Department of Justice does not plan, today, to impute crimes of incitement to violence to the president or others who spoke at that rally on Wednesday morning next to the White House (such as his son Donald Jr.), where he lit the fuse, according to prosecutor Ken Kohl, of the United States public prosecutor’s office in Washington. However, the Democratic Party does threaten to subject him to a impeachmentIn other words, a political trial in Congress to decide his dismissal, unless he resigns or his own Cabinet deposes him by appealing to the 25th amendment to the Constitution (these last two options, unlikely).
Trump has little more than a week left in the White House, but if convicted in that process, the Senate could also vote to incapacitate him as a candidate in the future. He impeachment has a clear path in the House of Representatives, which begins the process and has a Democratic majority, but it seems complicated in the Senate, where the impeachment itself is held and that can only convict a president with two-thirds of the votes , which currently Joe Biden’s party does not have.
“It is very difficult for him to give time to all this; what the Democrats want to do is damage him politically, prevent him from running for election again in 2024 and they seek the support of the Republicans for that, but that is not their prerogative, it is a prerogative of the voters “, considers the Republican jurist Robert Ray, who acted as an independent prosecutor for the caso Whitewater, a real estate scandal that plagued Bill and Hillary Clinton in the 1990s.
The courts await Trump when he leaves the government, beyond the violent episodes of Congress. The Manhattan prosecutor’s office is investigating his tax history and, after winning in the Supreme Court, he will have access to eight years of his statements, within an investigation into the payments to women to silence possible infidelities during the 2016 campaign and on possible tax fraud . Additionally, New York prosecutor Laetitia James is exploring possible charges against her construction company for altering the real value of its assets to obtain loans.
The Justice Department will also have a free hand to reactivate the case of obstruction of justice during the investigation of the Russian plot – he would no longer be an unimpeachable president – and, on the other hand, the lawsuits for his personal conduct continue: a demand from his niece, Mary Trump, for inheritance fraud and two for defamation, one of them, from the writer E. Jean Carroll, who accuses him of a sexual assault allegedly committed in the 1990s.
These issues, however, were already on the table before the elections and did not erode support for the president, who lost, but won 74 million votes, almost 12 million more than in 2016. The question is whether the tycoon will be able to maintain your traction force with the bases from now on; if really, as he claims, he can continue to be the leader of the conservative voters once he is expelled from political power, with less media attention and other Republicans already thinking of wiping him off the map to launch the race for the White House.
For the political strategist Rick Wilson, one of the founders of The Lincoln Project, a platform of Republicans against Trump, the president has lost “his superpower”, that is, his speaker on social networks, Twitter and Facebook, “and he will not be able to communicate with your followers as easily as before ”.
Wilson qualifies the weight of those 74 million votes that Trump received in the elections, and warns that half of them are “behavioral Republicans”, that is, “they will vote for Republicans no matter what, because for them the elections they are a disjunctive between socialism and freedom, light and darkness, and good and evil ”. Then, he adds, there is that other half that participates in the cult of the figure of the New York tycoon. “But the great schism facing this nation is whether the people who call themselves Republicans, who believe in conservative principles, are well served under Trump.” For the Republican Party, he says, what happened this week has been “devastating.”
Much has been made of Trump’s next moves. Renegated as a New Yorker, primarily for fiscal convenience, he is expected to move to Florida. A character as unrepeatable as this, allergic to defeat and proud to the point of agony, cannot be erased from the map. If he sees options, he will continue to battle for control of the Republican voter, but no one believes that he will dare to call another rally to coincide with Biden’s inauguration.
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Eddie is an Australian news reporter with over 9 years in the industry and has published on Forbes and tech crunch.