US elections, last minute
Biden closer to victory after overtaking Trump in Georgia and Pennsylvania
Joe Biden is virtually the next president of the United States. The Democratic candidate has the advantage in four of the states that have not yet declared a winner, and last night he planned to speak to the country accompanied – something unusual – of the person who is his candidate for the Presidency, Senator Kamala Harris. The president, Donald Trump, continues, meanwhile, without admitting defeat. In two television speeches he has described the result of the elections as “fraud” and “shame”, he has contested the result in Michigan – where he has lost – and has demanded that the counting be stopped in the states where he is losing, but that it remains in those who are winning or in those who are closing the gap.
The president’s rhetoric has reached some of his followers, who have organized demonstrations –in some cases, exhibiting firearms– at the voting centers in several of the disputed states. In turn, Biden’s supporters have also taken to the streets. The result has been riots and arrests, although, at least for the moment, the incidents are far from having the seriousness of the race riots that have plagued the country since last May.
As the situation clears up for the Democratic hopeful, moreover, the demonstrations of his supporters take on a more festive tone. Today at 12 noon Washington, the corner of 16th and H streets, right in front of the eight-foot wall erected to protect the president’s residence from the protesters, ‘Macarena’ thunderous sound, the famous song of Los del Ro that had already been the unofficial anthem of the Democratic campaign Bill Clinton in 1996, when he defeated the Republican Bob Dole.
All those tokens of glee from Biden’s fans are due to the fact that he has the math going for him. The vice president with Barack Obama It is ahead in four decisive states: Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Georgia. It is true that in all of them, with the exception of Arizona, it has an advantage of less than 1%. So is that it is not ruled out that Georgia loses, where the projections only give him an advantage of about 2,500 or 3,000 votes when the tabulation of the results is complete.
Ofensiva legal de Trump
But even so, Biden only needs to win in Pennsylvania to reach the Presidency. And in that state his advantage seems destined to increase. It is very likely that Biden will win there by twice the 44,000 votes that Trump drew from Hillary Clinton in 2016. In all this arithmetic, there’s room for irony: If Biden gets all the states he’s ahead of, reach 306 delegates in the Electoral College, that is, in the body that formally decides who is the president. That’s the same amount that Trump got four years ago.
Of course, just because the numbers are with Biden doesn’t mean he won. That will only be a reality on December 14, the date the Electoral College meets. Until then, Trump will use all the legal and political tools available to him. to win the elections. For now, one thing seems certain: in what supposes the rupture of a political tradition of more than 100 years, the president is not going to admit that he has lost with a telephone call to his rival and a brief speech to the nation.
On the political front, Trump continues to insist that there has been “fraud”, that these elections have been “a shame” and that the undecided states in which he has lost – Michigan and Wisconsin – and in which he seems destined to lose -Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania- are counting “illegal votes.” The president, however, has not been able to present any evidence in this sense, although social networks are inflated with all kinds of conspiracy theories about ‘ghost’ votes and deceased people who have allegedly voted.
In this regard, Trump’s cabinet, advisers and campaign leaders are deeply divided. In general, his cabinet is in favor of his admitting that he is on the verge of defeat. This is how one of his ‘right hands’ has implied it, Kellyanne Conway, the creator of the famous phrase “alternative facts,” and the head of the White House team of economic advisers, Larry Kudlow.
Trump’s fight, to the end
But the people with the most personal influence over Trump insist that he has to keep fighting to the end, and beyond. In that group are people from his family and personal circle who are not technically members of his cabinet. Among them, one of those who has taken a clearer attitude is the eldest son of the president, Donald ‘junior’, whose political profile is getting stronger every day and who, due to his personality and public image, seems to be a firm candidate to continue in political life as an heir to his father.
‘Junior’, as his friends know him colloquially, posted on Thursday a message on the social network Twitter in which he called for “total war”, and has launched a series of conspiracy theories denouncing alleged fraud in the elections. Trump’s former campaign chief in 2016, and advisor to several European political parties, Steven Bannon, has asked on YouTube to put “on a pike” the heads of the president’s adviser in the fight against Covid-19 Anthony Fauci, and the director of the FBI, Christopher Wray.
The other terrain is legal. Ah, Trump has a margin of at least until December 14, when the Electoral College meets. And everything indicates that the [presidente va a utilizar hasta el ltimo segundo para cuestionar el proceso en los tribunales. Por el momento, sin embargo, sus esfuerzos no han tenido xito, ya que sendas iniciativas en Nevada y Michigan han sido rechazadas por la Justicia. El problema que tiene Trump es que ha perdido -o est perdiendo- en muchos estados, lo que requiere un esfuerzo logsitico y financiero considerablemente mayor que el que llevaron a cabo George W. Bush y Al Gore en 2000, cuando slo tenan que disputarse Florida.
En todo caso, como explica Mike Gonzalez, investigador ‘senior’ del think tank conservador Heritage Foundation, “el proceso puede ser largo si los abogados de la campaa denuncian presuntos fraudes que los estados deban investigar”. A su vez, la campaa de Biden se muestra desafiante. En palabras de Juan Verde, del Comit de Hispanos de la campaa, “ya sabamos que iba a pasar esto, y hemos constituido un equipo legal muy fuerte”. Las urnas, as pues, estn hablando. Todava queda que se pronuncien los jueces… y Twitter.
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