I’m putting a bow on my 2021 Dynasty Stock Watch series recapping my picks. Be sure to check out my review of Weeks 6-9 and Weeks 10-13. Once you finish reading this article, it will officially be the end of Dynasty Season, so we can immediately start Dynasty Season. 2022.
Let’s ring the opening bell of the dynasty stock clock:
- QB Aaron Rodgers (Win Now/Rebuild/Superflex: KEEP)
- W.R. Davante Adams (Win Now: WAIT, Rebuild: WAIT)
- QB Taylor Heinicke (Win Now: WAIT, Rebuild/Superflex: WAIT)
- tight ends
We still don’t know where Rodgers and Adams will end up next season or how it will play out: either they stay, one leaves, or both leave. The most important point of this assessment from early December was not to get caught up in the media whirlwind. There was all that Rodgers vaccine status drama and while the topic is certainly click-inducing, it just shouldn’t take into account his take on the guy in the field and the dynasty. I’ll still listen to offers for both, but you shouldn’t accept any discounts for either player. As we are now, I trust both players understand the importance of winning and won’t jump into terrible situations just for a change of scenery or a raise. If they do leave, it will be a positive situation that shouldn’t hurt their fantasy value – fingers crossed.
Heinicke worries me the more I think about it. Wouldn’t it be so lazy for Washington to field pretty much the same offense as the last two seasons? But wouldn’t that also be true to form and exactly what the Washington Whats do? Heinicke remains rudimentary and inconsistent. The NFC East isn’t that great, which maintains the illusion that Washington is an adjacent contender. I like to keep Heinicke on superflex, but I’ll downgrade him to a sale on win now and 1QB formats.
I continue to believe that just as late-round QB draft strategies should be the de facto fantasy draft method, the same mantra should be used to target late-round tight ends. A strong finish from Mark Andrews makes him the highest scoring PPR TE by a modest 1.3 points per game over Travis Kelce. The position stiffens a bit at the 0.5 PPR score, but still the position is a bit top-heavy. Considering you could have chased Dalton Schultz (third-highest points, fifth PPG) or Dawson Knox (eighth-highest points, ninth PPG) out of the waiver wire or as a throwaway addition to a bigger trade, it’s hard to justify overspending on a second-tier young option like Kyle Pitts or TJ Hockenson. You swing for the fences, you could strike out.
My 2022 evaluation:
- Rodgers: HOLD/HOLD (B+)
- Adams: HOLD/HOLD (B+)
- Heinicke: SELL/HOLD (C-)
- Tight Ends (B)
- W.R. Hunter Renfrow (Win Now: WAIT, Rebuild: WAIT)
- W.R. Jerry Jeudy (Win now: SELL, Rebuild: SELL
- WR Marquise Brown (Win Now: BUY, Rebuild: HOLD)
Renfrow should be a buy, but it’s hard to make an offer on a player after a career season. Like Cooper Kupp, there is an argument for and against why he was able to repeat such a huge jump in production. Regardless, there is always an implied risk of a comedown. The reason I ultimately feel like Renfrow is leaning more towards a purchase is because of the way he earns his points. He appears to be the next big PPR receiver. There is a constant production in the guys that depend on receptions and yards. His breakout year came at the expense of the breakout follow-up season we’ve come to expect from Darren Waller. All of that said, there’s still room for improvement in this offense that could come from a legitimate WR1. This passing attack was likely topped (sixth-most passing yards), but an underperforming running game could provide plenty of room to grow next season. That would lead to greater efficiency, fewer 3-pointers and outs, better third-down conversions and more frequent trips to and scoring in the red zone. Even if you don’t completely trust Renfrow roofing, you should appreciate their PPR flooring.
You’re probably late for Jeudy’s roast if you’re still looking to sell. The Broncos were so disappointing that any offseason move could improve Jeudy’s draft value. A great addition of a veteran quarterback or an offensive-minded head coach could pique interest throughout the offense. Many would even argue that it’s a low buy after such a disappointing season. I have all that, but I’m not going to buy. I would need a signing from Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers to even consider doing this because I think so little about team management. Jeudy’s price is still so inflated that I can’t even recommend rolling the dice for good things to happen on this team after trading it for him. I’ll take what I can and move on.
My ideal scenario unfolded for Brown. At the time of writing prior to Week 15, the former Oklahoma Sooners wide receiver was more than a month away from his last 100-yard game. He was held without a touchdown from weeks 9-18. As of this Week 15 article, Brown had one decent game (Week 15, 43/10/0) and three flops (44/5/0, 28/3/0 and 27/3/0). I expect his value to stabilize and possibly plummet if the team opts to sign another wide receiver in the first two days of the draft. I’m not sure what favorable news or spins could improve its value. Ultimately, Brown is the best fantasy player on the ball. It’s a tough pill to swallow to start every week, even as a WR2. If he’s your WR3 or flex game every week, I can live with him because that means you’ve got a couple receivers ahead of you who will presumably provide more stable numbers. I think this season turns out to be Brown’s court given Lamar Jackson’s missed games due to injury, which is why I’d test the waters to buy him if he’s the right fit for my team. I am giving an update to BUY/BUY from BUY/HOLD.
My 2022 evaluation:
- Renfrow: HOLD/HOLD (B+)
- Jeudy: SELL/SELL (A)
- Brown: BUY/BUY (B)
- QB Deshaun Watson (Win Now: HOLD, Rebuild/SF: BUY
- 2022 1.01 Rookie Pick (Earn Now: SELL LATE, Rebuild: BUY NOW
- RB James Conner (Win Now: SELL, Rebuild: SELL)
The controversy surrounding Watson hasn’t really gone anywhere: the risk remains the same. But we’re still talking about a player who will turn 27 at the start of the 2022 season and who proved capable of being a solid QB1. As stated before Week 16, if I don’t have a top-10 QB in the redesign or just a top-15 QB in the 2QB, Watson is a firm buy for me. If you are a win owner now, you are well seated. Unless he retires, Watson will be priced as one of the top 10 QBs in the dynasty with room to grow. The situation matters in case he plays elsewhere, but his value really can only improve as there is no offense in the NFL less attractive than the Texans.
The 2022 1.01 is fast approaching and now that the season is over, you’ve probably missed the value buy window. That said, do we have a clear 1.01? No, I don’t think we will. I mentioned two players in Week 8 (OSU WR Garrett Wilson and ARK WR Treylon Burks). Burks, to me, appears to be the slight favorite with ISU RB Breece Hall not far behind. As draft evaluations improve, more news comes out and, of course, we eventually see these guys at the combine, rookie picks are only going to increase slowly and steadily. My recommendation remains the same, but we’re getting closer to holding as the NFL draft approaches.
Conner finished the 2021 regular season with 18 total touchdowns and I’ll buy you a beer if he gets close to five of that total next year. Touchdowns comprised about 42% of his fantasy scoring, or put another way, about 7.5% of his touches were for touchdowns. Those are percentages the size of Mount Everest and just unrealistic for a guy who isn’t a workhorse, near-MVP running guy. If Jonathan Taylor scored a TD on 7.5% of his touches, that would be 28 touchdowns instead of the 20 touchdowns he gave up this season. Long story short, it was an amazing year for Conner given the hype, but I don’t think lightning strikes twice. He might well have a nice 2022, but he’d be lucky to end his career with 18 more touchdowns.
My 2022 evaluation:
- Watson: BUY/BUY (B+)
- 2022 1.01: SELL/BUY (B)
- Conner: SELL/SELL (A+)
Weeks 17 and 18: Sorry folks, the Christmas and New Year holidays prevented my wisdom from reaching you. And remember, there is no off-season in dynasty! I’ll be back when the day is new and I’ll have more ideas for you. And you’ll have things you want to talk about—I will too.
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Eddie is an Australian news reporter with over 9 years in the industry and has published on Forbes and tech crunch.