The GAD3 poll published by ABC today predicts a clear victory for Isabel Díaz Ayuso in Madrid if, as it seems, there are elections on May 4. The PP would achieve between 57 and 59 seats compared to the PSOE’s 39-41, and together with the hypothetical support of Vox’s 14-16 seats in the Assembly, Díaz Ayuso could govern comfortably. One of the most relevant data of the poll is the total disappearance of Citizens from the map of Madrid since if Ignacio Aguado were designated a candidate, he would not obtain representation. The collapse of the party of Inés Arrimadas is absolute and places it on the way to extinction. We can also be in an extreme situation since it barely exceeds 5 percent of the vote. If he did, he would win 7 seats, which, together with the collapse of Más Madrid, will make the left’s strategy to evict the PP fail, a true persecutory obsession of Pedro Sánchez.
In fact, the confirmation that the socialist Ángel Gabilondo will repeat as a candidate, despite the fact that he was in the process of being relieved for being amortized, can only be interpreted under the prism that Sánchez considers these elections lost in advance, which he does not want sacrifice another minister to immolate himself as Salvador Illa has done in Catalonia, and above all, that Moncloa had not calculated the consequences of the political damage caused in Murcia. Sánchez and his strategists have punctured this time because in the face of the operation designed to definitively break the center-right, they are only going to reinforce Díaz Ayuso and prove that any possible surprise from Vox to the PP, at least in Madrid, is an optical illusion . The danger of the abstention that took place on 14-F in Catalonia seems to be conjured up in Madrid, given the illusion that has awakened the real possibility that these regional elections will inevitably turn into a plebiscite on Sánchez. It would also be about the verification of citizen fed up with the maneuvers of the Executive, more focused on monopolizing power than on fighting the pandemic.
If these results are produced, Madrid will certify the Citizens’ death certificate since it will clear the scope of the liberal center-right so that the PP can exploit it at its convenience. Indirectly, Pablo Casado would see his role as president of the PP strengthened, and for the first time in recent years Sánchez will have failed in that ultimate goal of closing an excluding cordon against the right and monopolizing all institutional power. If the decline of Ciudadanos and Podemos is confirmed, the effect of the shock wave on the legislature will be inevitable, and the failure of the ‘new policy’ will henceforth convulse all kinds of electoral maps. And Sánchez will have for the first time in the last three years reasons to worry about the stability of his project with two parties, and not three that canceled each other, to his right.
George is Digismak’s reported cum editor with 13 years of experience in Journalism