Wednesday, March 27

Elections in France | What consequences would a victory for Marine Le Pen have in Spain?


Next Sunday, April 24, the second round of french presidential election that will dispute the current tenant of the Elysee, the centrist Emmanuel Macronand the extreme right Marine LePen. In 2017 they already faced each other in the final in which Macron emerged victorious with 66% of the votes compared to 34% that Le Pen achieved. However, five years later the distance between the two is shortened and the famous Republican front – the cordon sanitaire that prevents the extreme right from reaching power – seems to be eroding.

Although polls are favorable for the president and they give him a 13-point advantage over his rival, the French media warn that there may be an “electoral accident.” Marine Le Pen’s victory would be a real political earthquake in the European Union. But what consequences could it have in Spain and in the European Union if it were to become the French presidency? The expert in International Relations from the College of Political Sciences and Sociology of the Community of Madrid, Jaime Gallup, and the historian from the Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB) author of ‘Extrema right 2.0’ Steven Forti offer some answers.

What would relations between Spain and France be like?

The first thing we would see would be a almost drastic worsening of bilateral relations. Despite the fact that Emmanuel Macron does not belong to the same ideological family as Pedro Sánchez, they have found many points in common and have a good relationship. Beyond institutional support, a relationship of mutual affection has been seen. In addition, the Socialist Party and the Spanish Executive have spent years criticizing Le Pen and warning of the big risk that its victory may mean for France, the future of the European Union and the rule of law, assimilating it to the policies of the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán or the leader of Vox, Santiago Abascal. (gallup)

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Are any policies beneficial?

One thing is that Le Pen is elected and another the type of government that will be in France after the legislative elections in June. That’s the mother of the lamb. It is true that the French system is presidential and the president has numerous powers, but if there is cohabitation – leaders of different formations in the Elysee and in Matignon – it will influence the type of measures that Le Pen can apply. She will have consequences in what she may propose. In any case, Le Pen’s programme, although it was later more moderate, at European level it is absolutely negative. (Forti)

What effects would it have in the economic field?

We know that Marine Le Pen’s program is oriented towards a more autarkic economy, with fewer international relations and less openness to the outside world, especially within the European Union. She has always said that France should have more power over its own economy, its own workers to decide who can and cannot work in France. It has never been favorable to free trade and the free movement of people and goods. It is possible that he will try to undermine France’s close relations with the European Union and that could harm France and the rest of the European countries, including Spain. (gallup)

Would seasonal workers be threatened?

It’s hard to say. One thing is rhetoric and propaganda and another is the needs of a country’s economy. If today there are many Spanish seasonal workers or workers who come from other countries to fill jobs where they do not find workers in France, Le Pen’s national priority will not change the needs of French industry or agriculture. They will need workers, and if they are not French they will come from other countries, whether seasonal or permanent. I don’t think there were changes, broadly speaking, with regard to migration within the European Union or from Spain. The racism and xenophobia of the extreme right it is mostly towards African and Asian immigrants. (Forti)

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Would it influence domestic politics?

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A victory for Le Pen would mean institutionalize the extreme right at the highest level. It would no longer be something marginal, but there would be talk of international legitimacy, which is as much as saying that we can have a far-right government and nothing happens, as has been the case in Hungary. That in a key country for the European Union like France the president is from a far-right party would give wings to Vox, which could be seen with options of becoming an institutional party. Although I don’t think Abascal’s formation has the capacity to become the main party of Spain, could be in a coalition government with the Popular Party. Le Pen would favor the rise of the European extreme right and greater legitimacy. In Spain, the main beneficiary would be Santiago Abascal and the main loser Pedro Sánchez. (gallup)

Is the cordon sanitaire weakening?

Even if Le Pen does not win, she will be voted for by 40-45% of the voters. In other words, in five years, possibly more than half of the voters consider Le Pen a valid option, when in 2002, her father, Jean Marie Le Pen, practically did not add votes between the first and second rounds and remained at 17%. The question is not whether or not the Republican front works, but rather the extreme right has been completely demarginalized, that is to say that it is a legitimate option for a part of the population. On the other hand, the traditional French parties – the Socialist Party and the Gaullist right – have disappeared. Together they do not reach 7% of the votes when they have been the key parties of the Fifth French Republic. That is the question. (Forti)

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