Saturday, October 1

Elections Italy 2022 | Who will win the Italian elections? So are the polls


Italy is heading towards new elections with which it seeks to get out of the political quagmire in which the country periodically gets mired. This umpteenth crisis was unleashed when Prime Minister mario draghi he lost the support of his allies on the right and left to continue governing. After several days of tensions and political maneuvers, the president of the republic, Sergio Matarellachose to dissolve Parliament and summon Italians to the polls on September 25.

The elections will settle the umpteenth battle to conquer the Italian Government between the left and the right, which have sealed paths pre-election alliances to add their votes in the future Parliament. The EU looks with concern at what may happen on 25-S because, on this occasion, the candidate of the conservative bloc that starts as the favorite for victory is the far-right Giorgia Meloniat the head of Fratelli d’Italia (Brothers from Italy).

Meloni has the support of the League Y forza italy, the brands of former Prime Ministers Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi. His main adversary is the center-left formation Democratic party (PD), led by former Prime Minister Enrico Letta at the head of an alliance of progressive parties. The third in discord is the populist 5 Star Movement (M5S), which incorporates sectors from both the left and the right, and which has not joined any of the major coalitions.

When the electoral campaign began, the polls placed Meloni and Letta in a technical tie, with an estimate of around 24% of the votes and a very slight edge from the ultra candidate. But as the elections approached, the growth of Brothers from Italy has been consolidated and the distance on the Democratic party has become 1.4 points.

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The evolution of all the polls published during this year 2022 left Meloni in the 24.2% of the votes and Letta, in the 22.8% two weeks before the elections. And it is that in Italy the dissemination of surveys is prohibited during the 15 days prior to the appointment with the polls.

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Now, although the victory is in a handkerchief between Letta and Meloni, the sum of the conservative bloc maintains a comfortable advantage over the sum of the lefts because Salvini’s League is close to the 14% and Forza Italia moves around the 8%, which would place the right close to 50% of the votes. The come to less M5S round the 10% and Letta’s main ally, the centre-left party Actionis slightly above the 5%.

A resounding victory for Meloni’s bloc in the elections could unleash a wave of support in Parliament and the possibility of the alliance winning a two-thirds majority, at which point the right-wing parties could promote a Constitutional reformas the leader of the Brothers of Italy has already advanced.


www.elperiodico.com

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