Wednesday, March 27

Energy price cap in Britain could hit £3,300 in January, analysts warn – business live | Business


The British household energy bill price cap could surge to above £3,300 per year next January, analysts at Cornwall Insight have warned.

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New, higher forecasts from Cornwall Insight show that the price cap is on track to rise to £3,244 a year in October, when it is next adjusted.

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That’s up from £1,971 per year at present, and would be an extremely tough blow for struggling households.

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And under regulator Ofgem’s new quarterly cap changes, Cornwall estimates the Default Tariff Cap would rise again, to £3,363 per year, for January-March 2023.

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Just last month, Cornwall had calculated the cap would rise to £3,003 for the January to March period, but the latest energy price moves suggest it will be higher.

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Ongoing uncertainty regarding Russian gas flows into continental Europe, as well as more recent concerns such as the halted strike by Norwegian gas workers, have led to an increasingly volatile energy market, Cornwall says.

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That leads to a rise in wholesale energy prices – which ultimately trickles down to consumers.

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These predictions do not include the impact of the government’s Energy Bills Support Scheme, which will give a £400 grant to households in October.

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Dr Craig Lowrey, Principal Consultant at Cornwall Insight said:

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n

“As the energy market continues to grapple with global political and economic uncertainty, the corresponding high wholesale prices, and the UK’s continued reliance on energy imports has once again seen predictions for the domestic consumer Default Tariff Cap rise to what are even more unaffordable levels.

n

“There is always some hope that the market will stabilise and retreat in time for the setting of the January cap. However, with the announcement of the October cap only a month away, the high wholesale prices are already being “baked in” to the figure, with little hope of relief from the predicted high energy bills.

n

“Ofgem are continually reviewing the cap and there are a raft of consultations and potential reforms which could impact these forecasts. However, as it stands, energy consumers are facing the prospect of a very expensive winter.”

n

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Hundreds of bus workers are to stage an all-out strike in a dispute over pay.

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Members of Unite employed by Stagecoach Merseyside held an initial day of strike action on Monday.

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The union said Stagecoach had failed to make an improved pay offer so its members will take all-out, continuous strike action from Wednesday July 20.

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Prior to this, there will be one-day strikes on Friday July 15 and Monday July 18.

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Unite general secretary Sharon Graham said:

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n

“Stagecoach is a wealthy company, it can easily afford to pay fairly and Unite is determined to ensure that it does.

n

“Our members simply want the rate for the job and are not going to accept being underpaid a moment longer.

n

“Stagecoach’s refusal to make an offer that would resolve this dispute has, however, resulted in an escalation in industrial action.

n

“Unite will be giving our members the union’s complete support until they receive an acceptable pay increase.”

n

“,”elementId”:”810e7125-796f-4a71-bfbe-85d1f12b7839″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jul/01/fresh-wave-of-strikes-to-hit-transport-and-other-services-across-uk”,”text”:”Fresh wave of strikes to hit transport and other services across UK”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”role”:”inline”,”elementId”:”1415a005-7948-488f-84a2-c961b1ca741c”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1657272356000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”10.25 BST”,”blockLastUpdated”:1657272862000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”10.34 BST”,”blockFirstPublished”:1657272782000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”10.33 BST”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”10.33″,”title”:”Stagecoach Merseyside bus workers to take all-out strike action, Unite says”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Fri 8 Jul 2022 12.17 BST”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Fri 8 Jul 2022 07.39 BST”},{“id”:”62c7f0828f08599e9042418a”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

This chart from the CMA’s report shows the growing gap between the crude oil price and the wholesale price of petrol and diesel, which pushed prices sky-high at the pumps.

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spread”,”,”credit”:”Photograph: CMA”},”displayCredit”:true,”role”:”inline”,”imageSources”:[{“weighting”:”inline”,”srcSet”:[{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/3c999645f2f51c72e093276325a7be994ee616d8/0_0_709_701/master/709.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=d7cb3e0b71e549d9a05dc2434114bdae”,”width”:620},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/3c999645f2f51c72e093276325a7be994ee616d8/0_0_709_701/master/709.jpg?width=620&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=5c9d86cac4f38e1d286c9afa6d6335ba”,”width”:1240},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/3c999645f2f51c72e093276325a7be994ee616d8/0_0_709_701/master/709.jpg?width=605&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=df89f38b9ae06d40ac335ff021bd0155″,”width”:605},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/3c999645f2f51c72e093276325a7be994ee616d8/0_0_709_701/master/709.jpg?width=605&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=1246b246be2256799c891604d09a08b4″,”width”:1210},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/3c999645f2f51c72e093276325a7be994ee616d8/0_0_709_701/master/709.jpg?width=445&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=ffc3e5385fb57c77fe90939508c7a798″,”width”:445},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/3c999645f2f51c72e093276325a7be994ee616d8/0_0_709_701/master/709.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=95078b53104409b941d223e337c1f83d”,”width”:890}]},{“weighting”:”thumbnail”,”srcSet”:[{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/3c999645f2f51c72e093276325a7be994ee616d8/0_0_709_701/master/709.jpg?width=140&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=1d953e6729a6a144c0e62fa8764404cb”,”width”:140},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/3c999645f2f51c72e093276325a7be994ee616d8/0_0_709_701/master/709.jpg?width=140&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=f7657d120f3adf28cf0d5505a7b3fc72″,”width”:280},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/3c999645f2f51c72e093276325a7be994ee616d8/0_0_709_701/master/709.jpg?width=120&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=5a297175c8c6e79b0a5a6d8dbb20abf0″,”width”:120},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/3c999645f2f51c72e093276325a7be994ee616d8/0_0_709_701/master/709.jpg?width=120&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=8029880cf6729175296bfaffb44c1c36″,”width”:240}]},{“weighting”:”supporting”,”srcSet”:[{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/3c999645f2f51c72e093276325a7be994ee616d8/0_0_709_701/master/709.jpg?width=380&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=cd0635a83402291f54268539ccd542ac”,”width”:380},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/3c999645f2f51c72e093276325a7be994ee616d8/0_0_709_701/master/709.jpg?width=380&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=b7e34d082c6be097c664867459c131b3″,”width”:760},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/3c999645f2f51c72e093276325a7be994ee616d8/0_0_709_701/master/709.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=57eee6931f1c4ad85493eb6f1958764b”,”width”:300},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/3c999645f2f51c72e093276325a7be994ee616d8/0_0_709_701/master/709.jpg?width=300&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=5a7189771b6c40a1f7c5ff9bc968fabb”,”width”:600},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/3c999645f2f51c72e093276325a7be994ee616d8/0_0_709_701/master/709.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=d7cb3e0b71e549d9a05dc2434114bdae”,”width”:620},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/3c999645f2f51c72e093276325a7be994ee616d8/0_0_709_701/master/709.jpg?width=620&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=5c9d86cac4f38e1d286c9afa6d6335ba”,”width”:1240},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/3c999645f2f51c72e093276325a7be994ee616d8/0_0_709_701/master/709.jpg?width=605&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=df89f38b9ae06d40ac335ff021bd0155″,”width”:605},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/3c999645f2f51c72e093276325a7be994ee616d8/0_0_709_701/master/709.jpg?width=605&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=1246b246be2256799c891604d09a08b4″,”width”:1210},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/3c999645f2f51c72e093276325a7be994ee616d8/0_0_709_701/master/709.jpg?width=445&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=ffc3e5385fb57c77fe90939508c7a798″,”width”:445},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/3c999645f2f51c72e093276325a7be994ee616d8/0_0_709_701/master/709.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=95078b53104409b941d223e337c1f83d”,”width”:890}]},{“weighting”:”showcase”,”srcSet”:[{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/3c999645f2f51c72e093276325a7be994ee616d8/0_0_709_701/master/709.jpg?width=860&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=be5074f1618b31ad1aad43e0599a2b18″,”width”:860},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/3c999645f2f51c72e093276325a7be994ee616d8/0_0_709_701/master/709.jpg?width=860&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=f8e4da43baf77775a79f40f0370c2baa”,”width”:1720},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/3c999645f2f51c72e093276325a7be994ee616d8/0_0_709_701/master/709.jpg?width=780&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=5eaa1b2f77645a0e4611847da3a40e94″,”width”:780},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/3c999645f2f51c72e093276325a7be994ee616d8/0_0_709_701/master/709.jpg?width=780&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=629f51cd4ba076e6825de2fe7ad1ffe4″,”width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709.jpg?width=480&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=2d8c25dfbe3593dc4765f689c7be8411″,”width”:480},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/3c999645f2f51c72e093276325a7be994ee616d8/0_0_709_701/master/709.jpg?width=480&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=596a4d04632c849cb5849863677b8844″,”width”:960}]}],”elementId”:”a142d62e-f1d9-42fe-af85-4d68c5fb0617″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The refining spread had tripled in the last year, growing from 10p to almost 35p a litre, the watchdog says.

“,”elementId”:”15942651-11de-409a-b202-f4064b021d73″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

It says it has “found cause for concern in the growing gap between the price of crude oil when it enters refineries, and the wholesale price when it leaves refineries as petrol or diesel”.

“,”elementId”:”e0b78853-7806-4d4f-8f3f-0919d0537d5a”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Here’s the full story on the CMA’s concerns over the margins made by refineries. by our energy correspondent Alex Lawson:

Also Read  The regional governments have triggered spending on credit by more than 900% in 20 years

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The AA has welcomed the CMA’s decision to launch a market study of the UK fuel sector.

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Jack Cousens, the AA’s head of roads policy, argues that pump-price competition in the UK is “broken”:

“,”elementId”:”1a4c19e9-4574-4ad0-9f50-3da567eed5f6″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

A month of major wholesale price falls without a penny coming off the average pump price of petrol is testament to that.

n

“It is very welcome and timely that the Competition and Markets Authority probe into road fuel pricing has agreed with the AA that there is a need for further investigation.

n

“However, the AA argues that the problem is not the gap between the oil price and wholesale price feeding through to the forecourts but the length of time it takes for that wholesale price to be reflected at the pump. The fuel trade has no trouble in passing on rising costs to the customer but lags badly in passing on savings. It has been labelled ‘rocket and feather’ pricing, and it exists.

n

“,”elementId”:”91bb7de4-40c1-4429-af7e-7e2a42bf8b69″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Cousens adds that supermarkets have lost their competitive edge on fuel:

“,”elementId”:”acb5b1b3-9eaf-4066-a60b-9a2511e65869″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

“Pre-pandemic, UK fuel pricing had settled into a rhythm where significant wholesale price reductions would start to be passed on in a matter of days by ‘cost-cutter’ supermarkets. That would then trigger other supermarkets and fuel retailers to start bringing down theirs, or find themselves at a competitive disadvantage.

n

“That didn’t mean that oil company forecourts couldn’t cut their prices sooner. However, most of them just sat back waiting for the supermarkets to make the first move.

n

“That trigger appears to have gone, and now there is a need to find another way to re-invigorate pump-price competition. The AA therefore welcomes the CMA’s suggestion of more pump price transparency immediately, something the UK’s biggest motoring organisation has been calling for years.”

n

“,”elementId”:”859518d8-2b1a-42f2-b697-b53b0bcae4b9″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1657271041000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”10.04 BST”,”blockLastUpdated”:1657271201000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”10.06 BST”,”blockFirstPublished”:1657271185000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”10.06 BST”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”10.06″,”title”:”AA: Pump-price competition in the UK is broken.”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Fri 8 Jul 2022 12.17 BST”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Fri 8 Jul 2022 07.39 BST”},{“id”:”62c7ee298f08599e90424179″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The CMA’s review of the petrol and diesel market has not found evidence that profiteering by petrol stations has been a major factor driving up pump prices.

“,”elementId”:”c9cfbadc-2e2b-465c-8d69-c84d0f0c7985″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

It says:

“,”elementId”:”3c84c369-a002-4c33-b76a-15221902b9cf”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

Although there are concerns about fuel retailers profiting from the current situation, our review finds the gap between wholesale prices and retail prices (the “retailer spread”) has not been a significant contributor to the overall rise in pump prices.

n

In particular, the share of the overall price accounted for by the retailer spread was lower in the three months after the 23 March duty cut than in the last six months of 2021; and in absolute terms, the spread fell from 11.2p to 9.9p.

n

“,”elementId”:”56cbdd36-091e-416b-b5ca-bb962c5b3ead”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The retailer spread also includes covering costs they incur:

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n

Retailers told us that they have also seen increases in a range of costs, including transportation, wages and utilities.

n

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BUT…. the CMA has spotted that the spread has widened recently, as wholesale prices fell back but prices didn’t.

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That will be part of its new market review:

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n

In relation to the most recent spike in retailer spreads, the CMA will be looking closely, as part of its market study, into how far and how fast these fall back to reflect recent declines in wholesale prices.

n

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Britain’s competition watchdog is to hold a formal market study into the UK’s road fuel sector, following concerns that motorists may be being charged too much.

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The move comes as the Competition and Markets Authority says it hasn’t found evidence of retailers profiting by not passing on fuel cuty cuts.

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Instead, it says, petrol and diesel prices have been pushed up by higher crude oil prices, and a widening gap between the price of crude oil entering refineries and the wholesale price of petrol and diesel leaving them.

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n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/MrAlexLawson/status/1545320864291381249″,”id”:”1545320864291381249″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”f871b4fc-e9c5-4e35-a897-f1f1d4118478″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The review will consider three key areas — including those large profit margins being enjoyed by refiners, and whether competition between supermarkets has softened.

Also Read  Alexis Kohler, the "vice president" in the shadow of Macron

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The Competition and Markets Authority says this study will cover:

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    n

  • refining, including why refining spreads are so high and what, if anything, ought to be done to bring them back down;
  • n

  • wholesaling, including the impact of long-term exclusive supply agreements between independent retailers and wholesalers; and
  • n

  • retailing, including how far local price variation is being driven by weak competition, and whether there has been a softening of competition from supermarkets.
  • n

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The CMA has also published a review of the sector, requested by the government last month amid claims that retailers were not passing on the 5p/litre fuel duty cut announced in March’s Spring Statement.

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The CMA says:

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n

We have seen no evidence – nor is it clear from our analysis – that retailers in aggregate have profited from failing to pass on the fuel duty cut.

n

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It explains that supermarkets cut prices by just over 5p per litre immediately following the duty cut, and probably incurred a cost as they’d paid the old rate when they bought their fuel from refiners.

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Prices charged by other types of retailer also fell in the days following the duty cut — around 3.5p in the case of oil company-operated sites, and 2.1p in the case of independently operated sites.

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But, the CMA says, wholesale prices were rising at the time:

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n

These price reductions occurred in a period where – absent the duty cut – retail prices might otherwise have been expected to rise.

n

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The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has appointed Ashley Alder, the head of Hong Kong’s securities watchdog, as its new chairman.

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Alder, who has run the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) since 2011, joins as the UK’s financial watchdog remains mired in internal strife amidst strikes by staff over pay and conditions.

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Alder, who two years ago was in the running to become chief executive of the FCA, will join as chairman in January for a five year term.

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He replaces interim chair Richard Lloyd, who ran consumer watchdog Which? for five years until 2016, who was appointed after Charles Randell stepped down as FCA chair in May – a year before the official end of his five year term.

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The appointment of Alder, who also chairs the Board of the International Organisation of Securities Commissions (IOSCO), follows a turbulent few years for the FCA.

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The City watchdog, which is responsible for supervising thousands of companies, was criticised for its handling of two major consumer scandals in 2019: The £236m collapse of London Capital & Finance, which sold unregulated minibonds on investors, and failure of Neil Woodford’s equity fund.

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The FCA has also found itself battling with staff since the appointment of Nikhil Rathi as chief executive in 2020, replacing Andrew Bailey who became governor of the Bank of England. This led to a walkout this summer, in a row over pay.

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Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the world economy, the financial markets and the cost of living crisis.

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The UK’s employment market is losing steam, in a sign of the challenge that will face the next government to strengthen the struggling economy.

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British employers slowed their hiring through recruitment agencies again in June, with vacancies rising at the weakest rate in over a year.

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The slowdown is due to rising economic uncertainty, spiralling costs, and a shortages of candidates, according to UK Report on Jobs, from KPMG and the REC (Recruitment & Employment Confederation).

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The survey shows that permanent staff appointments and temporary positions both expanded at the softest rates for 16 months in June, as the labour market lost some strength.

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Recruiters also reported another steep fall in overall candidate availability.

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That’s partly due to a drop in foreign candidates…. and a reluctance to switch jobs in the current climate, as the so-called Great Resignation fizzles.

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n

Recruitment consultancies often attributed lower candidate numbers to a generally low unemployment rate, fewer foreign workers, robust demand for staff and hesitancy to switch roles in the increasingly uncertain economic climate.

n

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The report follows a slowdown in May….

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….and shows we are past the peak of the “post-pandemic hiring spree”, as Neil Carberry, chief executive of the REC, explains:

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n

That pace of growth was always going to be temporary – the big question now is the effect that inflation has on pay and consumer demand over the course of the rest of the year. Whether we will see the market settle at close to normal levels, or see a slowdown, is unpredictable at this point.

n

“Part of the reason for unpredictability in the market is a slower economy accompanied by severe labour and skills shortages. These are already proving a constraint on growth in many firms. The government should be thinking about how to ensure all its departments enable greater labour market participation and encourage business investment funds to help address this.

n

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Also coming up today

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After recovering on Thursday, the pound is hovering around $1.20 as the City waits to see who will emerge to succeed Boris Johnson as Prime Minister (a process which could take a few months).

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There could be paralysis in the aftermath of yesterday’s dramatic resignation announcement, with Johnson promising no major policies, tax decisions or other changes of direction during his caretakership.

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Daniele Antonucci, chief economist & macro strategist at Quintet Private Bank, says:

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n

A Conservative leadership election is likely to begin within days. While his resignation could add to near-term uncertainty, so far the market response has been fairly muted.

n

Looking further out (past the current loss of growth momentum), the UK economy and its financial markets could perhaps benefit from more certainty.

n

“,”elementId”:”26fff656-e529-4fcc-ab26-b8261a355a0b”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Eleswhere, Britain’s competition watchdog, the Competition and Markets Authority, should be releasing its report into the fuel retail market today, following a request by Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng.

“,”elementId”:”4c2cd0ba-7822-4c24-8bfa-198e07a02195″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/03/pump-action-uk-motorists-await-report-on-painful-petrol-prices?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter”,”text”:”Pump action? UK motorists await report on painful petrol prices”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”role”:”inline”,”elementId”:”5a5f424c-8cfe-47e0-a3a9-404a613970fe”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The latest US jobs report, June’s non-farm payroll, is expected to show that job creation slowed last month.

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Economists predict the NFP will rise by 268k, down on the 390k US jobs created in May. A weak reading could lead to more worries about a possible US recession.

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n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/prometheusmacro/status/1545099529422249987″,”id”:”1545099529422249987″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”450e91c3-fb01-4260-8a1c-df075f9c6b51″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”

n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/JimPethokoukis/status/1545228108395077633″,”id”:”1545228108395077633″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”a7511887-d56c-47e8-9107-37d2e9c6f292″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

European stock markets rallied yesterday, but are on track for a subdued open today.

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n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/IGSquawk/status/1545276720764162049″,”id”:”1545276720764162049″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”050c09db-55ac-4855-a8de-e95037be67d8″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.SubheadingBlockElement”,”html”:”

The agenda

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  • Morning: CMA expected to release report on UK motor fuel market
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  • 9am BST: Italian industrial production for June
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  • 12.55pm: ECB president Christine Lagarde takes part in a session at the Les Rencontres Economiques event in Aix-en-Provence, Franc
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  • 1.30pm BST: US non-farm payroll jobs report for June
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Key events:

Here’s some early reaction to Cornwall Insight warning that the energy price cap is heading over £3,300 in January, from Graham Hiscott of the Daily Mirror:

We might be in a heat wave now but experts at Cornwall Insight is predicting average energy bills will top an eye watering £3,200 a year from October, and more than £3,300 from January.

— Graham Hiscott (@Grahamhiscott) July 8, 2022

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We might be in a heat wave now but experts at Cornwall Insight is predicting average energy bills will top an eye watering £3,200 a year from October, and more than £3,300 from January.

— Graham Hiscott (@Grahamhiscott) July 8, 2022

If they’re right (and very good chance they are) average household will be shelling out £270 a month energy. That average will have rocketed by neigh on £2,000 a year in the past 12 months. These kind of increases were once the stuff of nightmares.

— Graham Hiscott (@Grahamhiscott) July 8, 2022

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If they’re right (and very good chance they are) average household will be shelling out £270 a month energy. That average will have rocketed by neigh on £2,000 a year in the past 12 months. These kind of increases were once the stuff of nightmares.

— Graham Hiscott (@Grahamhiscott) July 8, 2022

Here’s Gary Caffell of Money Saving Expert:

Just had a shocking and scary new energy price cap prediction from @CornwallInsight… £3,244/yr for a typical home from Oct – a 65% hike. Rising again to £3,363/r from Jan. A lot higher than the £2,800 prediction when energy support packages were announced in May. Ouch

— Gary Caffell (@GCaffell) July 8, 2022

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Just had a shocking and scary new energy price cap prediction from @CornwallInsight… £3,244/yr for a typical home from Oct – a 65% hike. Rising again to £3,363/r from Jan. A lot higher than the £2,800 prediction when energy support packages were announced in May. Ouch

— Gary Caffell (@GCaffell) July 8, 2022

Cornwall Insight’s latest energy price cap forecasts Photograph: Cornwall Insight

British energy bills could hit £3,363/year in January

The British household energy bill price cap could surge to above £3,300 per year next January, analysts at Cornwall Insight have warned.

New, higher forecasts from Cornwall Insight show that the price cap is on track to rise to £3,244 a year in October, when it is next adjusted.

That’s up from £1,971 per year at present, and would be an extremely tough blow for struggling households.

And under regulator Ofgem’s new quarterly cap changes, Cornwall estimates the Default Tariff Cap would rise again, to £3,363 per year, for January-March 2023.

Just last month, Cornwall had calculated the cap would rise to £3,003 for the January to March period, but the latest energy price moves suggest it will be higher.

Ongoing uncertainty regarding Russian gas flows into continental Europe, as well as more recent concerns such as the halted strike by Norwegian gas workers, have led to an increasingly volatile energy market, Cornwall says.

That leads to a rise in wholesale energy prices – which ultimately trickles down to consumers.

These predictions do not include the impact of the government’s Energy Bills Support Scheme, which will give a £400 grant to households in October.

Dr Craig Lowrey, Principal Consultant at Cornwall Insight said:

“As the energy market continues to grapple with global political and economic uncertainty, the corresponding high wholesale prices, and the UK’s continued reliance on energy imports has once again seen predictions for the domestic consumer Default Tariff Cap rise to what are even more unaffordable levels.

“There is always some hope that the market will stabilise and retreat in time for the setting of the January cap. However, with the announcement of the October cap only a month away, the high wholesale prices are already being “baked in” to the figure, with little hope of relief from the predicted high energy bills.

“Ofgem are continually reviewing the cap and there are a raft of consultations and potential reforms which could impact these forecasts. However, as it stands, energy consumers are facing the prospect of a very expensive winter.”

Inflation in Greece has hit a 30-year high, adding to the cost of living squeeze facing Greek citizens.

Consumer prices jumped by 12.1% per year in June, up from 11.3% in May, as the costs of energy, transport and foods surged.

GREEK JUNE CONSUMER INFLATION AT +12.1 PCT Y/Y VS +11.3 PCT IN MAY #News #Forex #INFLATION

— Capital Hungry (@Capital_Hungry) July 8, 2022

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Statistics service ELSTAT reported that food and non-alcoholic beverages jumped 12.6% over the year, clothing and footwear rose 4.6%, transport costs jumped 25% and housin costs (including gas, electricity and heating oil) surged 31.5%.

Εθνικός ΔΤΚ, πληθωρισμός 12,1%
Εναρμονισμένος Δείκτης Τιμών Καταναλωτή, ετήσια αύξηση 11,6% (Ιούνιος 2022)
National CPI, inflation 12.1% https://t.co/fFXvt7NPsp
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, annual increase 11.6% (June 2022) https://t.co/YzOHfQQzcu #ΕΛΣΤΑΤ #ELSTAT pic.twitter.com/SodhqDJM1Z

— ELSTAT (@StatisticsGR) July 8, 2022

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This will also push up the cost of holidaying in Greece — at 12.1%, inflation is higher than the eurozone average (8.6%), or the UK’s CPI at 9.1%.

Note to all vacationers: Greek inflation jumps to 12.1% y/y in June 🛫🏖🛬🛳🚢⛵️🏝🗺🚤

— Stare Decisis (@MsResJudicata) July 8, 2022

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Note to all vacationers: Greek inflation jumps to 12.1% y/y in June 🛫🏖🛬🛳🚢⛵️🏝🗺🚤

— Stare Decisis (@MsResJudicata) July 8, 2022

The financial markets are ending the week with a fresh bout of recession worries.

The FTSE 100 index of blue-chip shares has dipped 0.15%, or 11 points, to 7178, with mining companies, banks and UK housebuilders among the fallers.

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, says:

“The FTSE 100 is trying its very best to hold on to this week’s winning streak, but it looks touch and go as to whether the index will have the stamina to stay higher for the whole of Friday.

“Investors continue to lock on to oil stocks, with BP, Shell and Harbour Energy among the top risers. JD Sports also got a lift as it found a new chairman.

“Housebuilders didn’t fare as well, with Taylor Wimpey and Persimmon taking a knock amid mixed messages about the sector which is battling materials, energy and labour cost inflation. There is also a growing sense that the property market can’t sustain its positive momentum if we get a recession.

Germany’s DAX has dropped 0.3%, while France’s CAC is 0.5% lower.

European bourses ↔️ after a 2-day 🐻 market rally for the $FEZ$DAX 12817 -0.2%$FTSE 7201 +0.15%$CAC 5990 -0.3%$AEX 672 +0.1%$IBEX 8067 -0.7%$MIB 21597 -0.2%$SMI 10982 +0.4%$MOEX 2217 -0.4% 🪆$VSTOXX 28.56 🔺$DAX range = 12450 – 13075 🐻

— Ted Darling (@tdarling1) July 8, 2022

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The pound has also lost some of yesterday’s gains, down 0.8 of a cent to $1.195.

The euro’s weaker against the dollar too, sliding nearer to parity at $1.011 (down 0.5% today).

"Cause for concern" in some parts of fuel market – @CMAgovUK market study to start immediately

– increase in 'refining spread' adds 24ppl in a year – it has tripled in the last year, growing from 10p to nearly 35p per litre, according to the CMAhttps://t.co/JVClgKFM8k pic.twitter.com/ooMaLM2Wfx

— ABP Club (@abpclub) July 8, 2022

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Stagecoach Merseyside bus workers to take all-out strike action, Unite says

Bus drivers and engineers from Stagecoach Merseyside striking outside the company’s Gilmoss depot in Liverpool, England, on Monday July 04
Bus drivers and engineers from Stagecoach Merseyside striking outside the company’s Gilmoss depot in Liverpool, England, on Monday. Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

Hundreds of bus workers are to stage an all-out strike in a dispute over pay.

Members of Unite employed by Stagecoach Merseyside held an initial day of strike action on Monday.

The union said Stagecoach had failed to make an improved pay offer so its members will take all-out, continuous strike action from Wednesday July 20.

Prior to this, there will be one-day strikes on Friday July 15 and Monday July 18.

Unite general secretary Sharon Graham said:

“Stagecoach is a wealthy company, it can easily afford to pay fairly and Unite is determined to ensure that it does.

“Our members simply want the rate for the job and are not going to accept being underpaid a moment longer.

“Stagecoach’s refusal to make an offer that would resolve this dispute has, however, resulted in an escalation in industrial action.

“Unite will be giving our members the union’s complete support until they receive an acceptable pay increase.”

Petrol prices: UK watchdog raises concerns over refinery margins

This chart from the CMA’s report shows the growing gap between the crude oil price and the wholesale price of petrol and diesel, which pushed prices sky-high at the pumps.

UK refinery spreads
The “refining spread”, Photograph: CMA

The refining spread had tripled in the last year, growing from 10p to almost 35p a litre, the watchdog says.

It says it has “found cause for concern in the growing gap between the price of crude oil when it enters refineries, and the wholesale price when it leaves refineries as petrol or diesel”.

Here’s the full story on the CMA’s concerns over the margins made by refineries. by our energy correspondent Alex Lawson:

It’s important that the CMA’s market review is conducted quickly, to provide help in the cost of living squeeze, says RAC fuel spokesman Simon Williams.

As each day goes by and the cost-of-living crisis is felt ever more keenly, the need for retailers – especially the largest ones – to reflect wholesale prices fairly becomes ever more urgent.

We urge the Government to ensure it’s in a position to scrutinise the relationship between wholesale and retail prices. And where issues are found, it must be able to take action that quickly leads to fairer prices.”

AA: Pump-price competition in the UK is broken.

The AA has welcomed the CMA’s decision to launch a market study of the UK fuel sector.

Jack Cousens, the AA’s head of roads policy, argues that pump-price competition in the UK is “broken”:

A month of major wholesale price falls without a penny coming off the average pump price of petrol is testament to that.

“It is very welcome and timely that the Competition and Markets Authority probe into road fuel pricing has agreed with the AA that there is a need for further investigation.

“However, the AA argues that the problem is not the gap between the oil price and wholesale price feeding through to the forecourts but the length of time it takes for that wholesale price to be reflected at the pump. The fuel trade has no trouble in passing on rising costs to the customer but lags badly in passing on savings. It has been labelled ‘rocket and feather’ pricing, and it exists.

Cousens adds that supermarkets have lost their competitive edge on fuel:

“Pre-pandemic, UK fuel pricing had settled into a rhythm where significant wholesale price reductions would start to be passed on in a matter of days by ‘cost-cutter’ supermarkets. That would then trigger other supermarkets and fuel retailers to start bringing down theirs, or find themselves at a competitive disadvantage.

“That didn’t mean that oil company forecourts couldn’t cut their prices sooner. However, most of them just sat back waiting for the supermarkets to make the first move.

“That trigger appears to have gone, and now there is a need to find another way to re-invigorate pump-price competition. The AA therefore welcomes the CMA’s suggestion of more pump price transparency immediately, something the UK’s biggest motoring organisation has been calling for years.”

Greater transparency about fuel prices at the pumps could help competition, but wouldn’t have a large impact, the CMA says:

In particular, an open data scheme for pump prices could strengthen retail competition and create new commercial opportunities for developers.

However, given that retailer profits represent a relatively small share of the pump price, such measures are likely to have only a modest effect on prices.

CMA: Fuel retailer profit margins have not pumped up prices

The CMA’s review of the petrol and diesel market has not found evidence that profiteering by petrol stations has been a major factor driving up pump prices.

It says:

Although there are concerns about fuel retailers profiting from the current situation, our review finds the gap between wholesale prices and retail prices (the “retailer spread”) has not been a significant contributor to the overall rise in pump prices.

In particular, the share of the overall price accounted for by the retailer spread was lower in the three months after the 23 March duty cut than in the last six months of 2021; and in absolute terms, the spread fell from 11.2p to 9.9p.

The retailer spread also includes covering costs they incur:

Retailers told us that they have also seen increases in a range of costs, including transportation, wages and utilities.

Fuel retailer spreads
Photograph: CMA

BUT…. the CMA has spotted that the spread has widened recently, as wholesale prices fell back but prices didn’t.

That will be part of its new market review:

In relation to the most recent spike in retailer spreads, the CMA will be looking closely, as part of its market study, into how far and how fast these fall back to reflect recent declines in wholesale prices.

CMA to launch formal market study into road fuel markets

Britain’s competition watchdog is to hold a formal market study into the UK’s road fuel sector, following concerns that motorists may be being charged too much.

The move comes as the Competition and Markets Authority says it hasn’t found evidence of retailers profiting by not passing on fuel cuty cuts.

Instead, it says, petrol and diesel prices have been pushed up by higher crude oil prices, and a widening gap between the price of crude oil entering refineries and the wholesale price of petrol and diesel leaving them.

Result for petrol retailers from the CMA price probe. The watchdog lays most of the blame for high prices at the door of refineries, noting that the gap between crude and wholesale fuel prices has tripled in the last year

— Alex Lawson (@MrAlexLawson) July 8, 2022

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Result for petrol retailers from the CMA price probe. The watchdog lays most of the blame for high prices at the door of refineries, noting that the gap between crude and wholesale fuel prices has tripled in the last year

— Alex Lawson (@MrAlexLawson) July 8, 2022

The review will consider three key areas — including those large profit margins being enjoyed by refiners, and whether competition between supermarkets has softened.

The Competition and Markets Authority says this study will cover:

  • refining, including why refining spreads are so high and what, if anything, ought to be done to bring them back down;
  • wholesaling, including the impact of long-term exclusive supply agreements between independent retailers and wholesalers; and
  • retailing, including how far local price variation is being driven by weak competition, and whether there has been a softening of competition from supermarkets.

The CMA has also published a review of the sector, requested by the government last month amid claims that retailers were not passing on the 5p/litre fuel duty cut announced in March’s Spring Statement.

The CMA says:

We have seen no evidence – nor is it clear from our analysis – that retailers in aggregate have profited from failing to pass on the fuel duty cut.

It explains that supermarkets cut prices by just over 5p per litre immediately following the duty cut, and probably incurred a cost as they’d paid the old rate when they bought their fuel from refiners.

Prices charged by other types of retailer also fell in the days following the duty cut — around 3.5p in the case of oil company-operated sites, and 2.1p in the case of independently operated sites.

But, the CMA says, wholesale prices were rising at the time:

These price reductions occurred in a period where – absent the duty cut – retail prices might otherwise have been expected to rise.




www.theguardian.com

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