CConservative factions are nothing new, as Theresa May learned at her expense with Brexit and Boris Johnson saw in a massive rebellion over Covid rules. But Johnson faces significant pressure from more than 100 of his MPs to change course on several fronts, including green policies.
Conservative supporters say that a growing number of factions, most with their own initials and with a significant crossover as far as their members are concerned, dominate within the party, a process aided by the WhatsApp-based organization and a perception that it has the authority of the prime minister. eroded.
“I am in so many WhatsApp groups that it is like Ben-Hur: there is a cast of thousands,” said a deputy. “I can’t keep track of all of them. It doesn’t mean I believe in everything, but I like to keep track of people’s opinions. “
Parliamentarians feel empowered by groups. “It is often said that with the former in the past, coalitions exist within parties rather than between parties,” said another deputy. “Under Thatcher we used to have the wet and the dry. It can be a good counterweight for the executive ”.
John Major fought endlessly with Eurosceptics whom he called “bastards,” while May’s nemesis was the European Research Group, or ERG, the long-standing alliance of Brexit ultras.
What’s different now is that, unlike Major and May, Johnson has a significant majority in the Commons. However, before Christmas it still had to rely on Labor votes to pass new coronavirus restrictions amid a 101-MP rebellion instigated by the Covid Recovery Group (CRG), which is skeptical of the new pandemic rules.
Unlike the ERG, which has membership fees and a formal structure, CRG sponsors say it is little more than a WhatsApp forum with occasional in-person meetings. There is a significant crossover, especially with Steve Baker, a former ERG president who is vice president of the CRG.
The ERG took a back seat after Johnson delivered the Brexit its members wanted, and the CRG could also call off hostilities if the Omicron wave subsides and the rules are eased.
Even then Johnson will not be safe. The internal groupings of your parliamentary party, although they vary in their central goals, often share certain views and some of the same members. These tend disproportionately to be former Brexiters, with common goals centering on a desire to alienate Johnson from what they see as overly statist and high-tax policies – policies they believe the UK should abandon outside the EU. .
“It feels particularly important now as we have had two years of a Conservative government and for some of us it has not felt especially like a Conservative government,” said one backbencher. “We all face reelection in a year or two, and we just want to gently push the government down a virtuous path.”
Some blocs, like the Northern Research Group (NRG), are more geographical than ideological. But others, like the blue-collar conservatism and the culture war-focused Common Sense Group, have beliefs that include opposition to current tax and spending elements.
The Net Zero Scrutiny Group (NZSG), which claims to have far more supporters than the 18 Conservative MPs who signed a letter this week calling for an end to VAT and green levies on fuel bills, looks set to become increasingly influential in the next few months as Johnson faces the pressure. on the cost of living.
Some critics have argued that the NZSG flirts with denial, citing its commitment to consider the investigation by Nigel Lawson’s controversial Global Warming Policy Foundation think tank.
Craig Mackinlay, the South Thanet MP who chairs the group, rejects the characterization. He says: “This is not an argument about climate change or anything like that. It’s about: is this affordable and technologically achievable? What will you do in particular for those who pay less? Is there a better way?
There are repeated echoes of Brexit, and not just because many of the parliamentarians involved cut their factional teeth within the ERG.
One supporter, a member of various groups, says: “We know that one of the reasons people voted for Brexit was that they felt like the elites were telling them how to live their lives. And I think there are some similarities when they are told: don’t have an old-fashioned boiler, don’t drive a 15-year-old car or truck, even if you can’t afford another. It’s the same with Covid – London officials tell them what to do. “
Some deputies come up over and over again. Lincoln’s MP, Karl McCartney, for example, is on the CRG, NZRG, and Common Sense Group, as well as on the executive of the 1922 Conservatives Committee.
Wealden MP Nusrat Ghani is Vice Chairman of the 1922 Committee and is involved with the CRG, while former Minister Esther McVey is linked to the CRG and NZSG and founded the Blue Collar Conservatism.
As much as Johnson succeeded May in positioning himself to Tory MPs and party membership as the man to achieve an immediate and forceful Brexit, those who now hope to follow him, such as Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, will look to groups for ideological advice.
Meanwhile, Johnson must try to keep them by his side, aware that they have the ability to cause major problems. “You don’t pull over the barbed wire every time there is a vote,” said a Conservative MP, a member of several groups. “But you have a greater opportunity to present yourself to the ministers and argue the case, because they know that you have some letters in your pocket.”
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George is Digismak’s reported cum editor with 13 years of experience in Journalism