Thursday, September 28

Exit polls give Meloni and center-right coalition victory in Italy’s general election

The candidate Giorgia Meloni, leader of the Brothers of Italy, is the winner of the italian elections. The right-wing coalition will have a comfortable and clear parliamentary majority, even in the Senate, where it was more complicated.

These have been the seats in the Senate for the center right: a bracket between 111 and 131 senators, out of a total of 200 seats. In the Chamber of Deputieswill be in a range between 225 and 257 seats, out of a total of 400, while the center left will have to settle for a range of between 79 and 98 seats.

Brothers of Italy has obtained between 22 and 26 percent of the votes, always according to the first data from polls conducted at the exit of the ballot box, offered by RAI after the closing of the polls, at 11:00 p.m. The other two parties of the right-wing coalition have had this result: the League, led by Matteo Salvini, between 8.5 and 12 percent; and Forza Italia, of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, between 6 and 8 percent. For its part, in the center-left, the Democratic Party has obtained between 17 and 21 percent of the vote. The 5 Star Movement, which ran alone, has reached between 13 and 17.5 percent.

Meloni’s victory marks a historic change for Italy. It remains to be seen what the effects will be. The reality is that the country leaves these elections more divided and disenchanted with the political class. Enzo Risso, scientific director of the Ipsos polling institute, highlights, as a reason for the increase in abstention, the fact that “many citizens have not fully understood the reason for the fall of Mario Draghi.” The abstention confirms the boredom, with a disoriented population because the electoral campaign did not provide realistic proposals to solve their problems.

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There are many important issues at stake and none of them have been cleared up during the electoral campaign, because there has not even been a single electoral debate on television between the main candidates. This slope state reform, with a republic in which the president is elected by direct vote of the citizens, as Meloni dreams, with the opposition of the left; On the other hand, all the parties have promised to lower taxes, although in completely different ways. Very divergent are also the ideas of the right and left on how to approach the problem of immigrants; The same goes for civil rights and the environment. In short, there are two Italys, with different ideas and visions. In addition, the economic crisis has further deepened the divisions between the poor South and the North, whose per capita income is almost double.

Bearing in mind the serious problems that the new government will face, above all due to inflation, the energy crisis and the war in Ukraine, in Brussels and in the European chancelleries there are huge expectation not without concern. Italy is the third largest economy in the euro zone and everyone is interested in its stability. Meloni has sometimes fiercely criticized the “bureaucrats” in Brussels, although in the last days of the campaign he moderated his language to convey calm. In contrast, the leader of the League, Matteo Salvini, has always maintained his usual eurosceptic and sovereigntist rhetoric.


Now that the electoral campaign is over, analysts believe that the real test for the new government will come in the coming months, when the European Union tries to draw up a coordinated response to the most burning issues, like the war in Ukraine and other complicated policies like the cap on the price of gas and oil. Meloni will ask Brussels to offer compensation for the negative economic effects of economic sanctions on Russia.

The center-right leader has maintained a certain ambiguity, with different faces on certain issues. Therefore, there is great interest in finally seeing what is his real facewhich the Italians and Brussels will inevitably discover when confronted with the real problems of the country and of international politics.

Meloni has a problem with his partners, in particular with Salvini, an uncontrollable leader in free fall, with loss of leadership in his party and without credibility at the international level.

His critics consider that Meloni’s main problem may be inexperience, because until now he has not had no important charge of management, except for her time as Minister of Youth (2008-2011) in the last Berlusconi government that collapsed.

There is no known ruling class of Brothers of Italy and, in fact, Meloni has turned to some old leaders of Forza Italia for his electoral campaign. In addition, all analysts consider that he has a problem with his partners, in particular with Salvini, a rather uncontrollable leader in free fall, with loss of leadership in his party and without credibility at the international level. Nor will Il Cavaliere be of great help to him, in the twilight of his political career.

In any case, faced with those who consider that Meloni’s euroscepticism could be very dangerous, many analysts estimate that she will be forced to act with his face more moderate. For example, while Salvini is critical of the sanctions against Russia, because they have a high cost for Italian companies, Meloni will not be able to change the line, initiated by Draghi, of full support for the sanctions, according to the former ambassador to NATO and an analyst at international politics Stefano Stefanini: “Not maintaining that line would cost Italy both its relationship with the European Union and with the United States, and that is a price that Rome cannot pay. Italy cannot afford the price of discontinuity in foreign policy.

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