Several experts in demoscopy, such as the CEO of Metroscopia, Andres Medina Medina, they have warned this Monday that the Sociological Research Center (CIS) has misallocated the seats in its pre-election study of the regional elections of Madrid on May 4. As they argue, if the vote estimate percentages calculated by the CIS are taken as a reference, the left bloc would not tie at 68 seats with the one on the right, but would surpass it by 4.
However, the president of the CIS, Jose Felix Tezanos, has defended the correction of its survey, ensuring that it is a question of “rigorous” estimates made with “honesty”, that what they intend is to reflect the situation of “balance” and “technical tie” that currently exists between the two blocks .
In statements to Cadena Ser, collected by Europa Press, he has assured that the data offered is the result of “a work with estimation models”. “It is a median of several estimation models,” he stressed.
The projection of seats included in the CIS study has unleashed controversy on social networks because, according to several experts in demoscopy, the distribution that is made does not coincide with the estimate of votes that is collected in the adjoining column. In other words, if the D’Hondt method established by the electoral law is applied, the result in seats would not be the tie at 68 predicted by the public institution.
The Metroscopy Investigator Paco Camas Garcia has pointed out on Twitter this “incongruity”, and has been sure that it is due to a error in the percentages column or in the seats column. Specifically, he assures that “the correct calculation grants a majority to the left” with 70 seats “, compared to the 68 indicated by the CIS. According to this calculation, the right would remain with 66.
According to Camas García, the correct projection of seats would grant the PP, with 39.2% of the votes, 58 seats, and not 59; to the PSOE, with 25.3% of the votes, 37 seats, and not 38; a Más Madrid, with 4.8%, 21 seats, instead of 20; United We Can, with 8.7%, 12 seats, instead of 10; and Vox, with 5.4%, 8 seats in the Assembly, compared to the 9 that the CIS gives them. The sum, therefore, would be favorable for the bloc on the left, with 4 more seats than the one on the right.
Tezanos: “They are objective calculations based on very rigorous scientific work”
However, asked about the possible error, Tezanos has denied that it is a mistake and has played down the controversy, ensuring that it is an estimate that is intended to reflect the reality that “everything is open at this time.” “The other are collateral debates,” he added.
Moreover, he has confessed that it makes him “happy” that now “some say that he is” favoring more to the right “with these calculations, after the criticism that he has received precisely on the contrary.” They are objective calculations based on very scientific work. rigorous that cannot be challenged, “he emphasized.
Eddie is an Australian news reporter with over 9 years in the industry and has published on Forbes and tech crunch.