San José Bridge and, again, the temptation to celebrate as a family and the risk of coronavirus infections. Thankful children who value the work of dedicated parents, hugs, that if it is a day and nothing happens, there is trust, mask outside to eat and sprays. And since the virus does not understand bridges or exceptions, some experts warn that, despite the restrictions, the increase in cases is seen to come in what could be the beginning of a fourth wave.
«There will be a rebound in infections, that’s for sure, we need to see the shape of that possible fourth wave, if it will be a tidal wave or will it be an ebb of the sea “, indicates Salvador Peiro, Public Health specialist of the Fisabio Foundation. In his opinion, this change in trend within the incidence valley will be caused by an increase in social contacts despite the restrictions, basically family gatherings not as large as in Christmas, but yes, with fathers, mothers, children, and partners.
The limitations are much greater than at Christmas and, as Peiró points out, “perhaps the weather helps us avoid contacts, bad weather is an ally in this case.” Sun and heat make it more likely to stay while rain is synonymous with blanket, sofa and film and therefore fewer interactions.
For the researcher of Microbiology of the University of Valencia, Exhibition Maicas, «There is a risk of another wave if we relax excessively because although we have a very low incidence, it is not anecdotal, the virus is still there, and if we get lost its advance is exponential and can get out of control in a couple of weeks”. In addition, he mentions that the hospital situation does not start from zero either.
On the intensity of a possible fourth wave, Maicas believes that it will depend on two factors: vaccination and measures. “The more people vaccinated, the more people will have protected and the more possibility that the transmission will be cut”, he indicates about the first idea while in the second he points out that “open too much on the bridge and Easter will mean more infections».
It will depend on the behavior
“The truth is that evolution will depend on our behavior as individuals and society,” reflects the doctor in Epidemiology from Harvard University and professor of Preventive Medicine and Public Health at the UV, José María Martín-Moreno. Thus, he points out that everything indicates that the British strain “will gradually become more predominant”, an important fact since this variant “will make infections easier, and we will have a serious problem if the regulations on prevention measures related to mobility are relaxed. ».
Martín-Moreno says that as vaccinations of vulnerable people are completed and pandemic fatigue spreads, “it is possible that economic, social and political pressure to end restrictive measures will be triggered and that will be a serious problem if it is done. in a hasty way. According to his analysis, “if these circumstances converge, it is foreseeable that there will be a fourth wave, with a peak around the month of April, although perhaps affecting younger people and with a lower rate of hospital admissions and lower associated mortality, having already vaccinated to the people of the residences and to those most vulnerable ».
The British strain already accounts for 52.2% of positives
The British strain already accounts for 52.2% of the positives detected in the Valencian Community, according to the samples analyzed during the first week of March, as collected by the Ministry of Health in the update document of the variants present in Spain.
The variant has had a continuous growth since last February, since in just three weeks it has gone from 29% of the positives analyzed to 34.2% at the end of February and to 52.2% of the cases during the first week of March.
Regarding the new cases, the Ministry of Health notified yesterday a total of 178 infections and five new outbreaks with 31 infections detected. The most numerous is that of Sant Vicent del Raspeig with ten cases of social origin.
The containment of contagions once again placed the Valencian Community as the autonomy with the lowest incidence in all of Spain with 36.65 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, 2.38 points lower than that of Wednesday, which reached 39.03 cases .
Despite the low incidence, Health confirmed the death of 13 more people from coronavirus. There are also 500 people hospitalized, 33 less than Wednesday’s update, of which a total of 145 remain admitted to the ICU (4 patients less than on Wednesday).
Eddie is an Australian news reporter with over 9 years in the industry and has published on Forbes and tech crunch.