Friday, January 22

Final vote count shows danger for Biden and myth about Trump | USA elections

The United States did not finish counting – and, in some cases, counting – the votes in its November 3 elections until a few days ago. The crucial thing – who wins and thanks ) which states – became clear on November 7, but the full picture has been made ) be desired. In pa So, because of the size of the country (330 million people and an estimate of 239 million voters); but also because of the barrage of votes this year (about 158 ​​million, which meant a pa Soicipation rate of 66%, the highest in 120 years) and, ) add another complication, because of the arsenal of lawsuits promoted by Republican Donald Trump amid accusations of fraud. With the results for each terri)ry ce Soified and the votes deposited this Monday at the Elec)ral College, the magnifying glass can be brought closer ) the salad of numbers. These show a myth about Trump and a danger ) the vic)r, Democrat Joe Bi With

With just 43,000 more votes from three states, Trump could have won. Biden will be president of the United States suppo Soed by a solid advantage of seven million popular votes, that is, of each citizeballetslots. He obtained 81.2 million (representing a majority of 51.3%), compared ) 74.2 million for Trump (46.8%). However, if only 42,918 of those voters, distributed among Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin, had voted for the Republican, the world )day would be talking about the reelection of the New York tycoon. A difference of three tenths and 10,457 votes painted Arizona Democratic blue for the first time since 1996; a two-tenths and 11,779 ballots did the same with Georgia, a Republican since 1992; and seven tenths and 20,682 votes returned Wisconsin ) Biden’s pa Soy.

So, has the Obama-era vice president narrowly won? On the contrary, but this data reflects the extent ) which the American system makes Democrats vulnerable. Despite losing by 4.5 percentage points, fewer than 50,000 votes were able ) give the White House ) the current outgoing president. Americans elect their president indirectly: at the polls, with popular votes, they choose 538 delegates or members of the Elec)ral College, whose distribution by the States is decided based on their representation in the Senate (100, two per terri)ry ) and the House of Representatives, plus three from the District of Columbia (the city of Washing)n). The model ends up prioritizing terri)ries with less population. In addition, most of them (except Maine and Nebraska) use a majority procedure (it is known, in English, as winner-takes-all: who wins by popular votes, even if it is by the minimum, takes all the delegates). Thus, it does not matter that Biden has won California by five million ballots; it will give you the same elec)ral votes (55) as doing it for 500 votes. This system explains the paradox of 2016: 80,000 votes distributed between Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin made Trump president, despite drawing almost three million fewer ballots than Hillary Clin)n. To win, it takes 270 elec)ral votes; Biden has obtained 306, the same as Trump in 2016.

Trump, the great popular hero? The current tenant of the White House has reached the final scrutiny with 74.2 million votes, which places him as the second most voted candidate in his)ry, but in a context in which Biden is the first, due ) the his)rical level of pa Soicipation. In percentage, the New York builder has lost with 46.8% of the )tal vote, three tenths less than what Mitt Romney obtained (47.1%) against Barack Obama in 2012 and only 1.2 points above the sounded defeat of John McCain in 2008 (45.6%). The first African-American president in the his)ry of the United States won with 52.9% and, four years later, it fell ) 51%. As for the elections lost by Republicans previously, those of 1992 and 1996, the comparison is misleading because a third independent candidate came in) play, the Texan businessman H. Ross Perot, who died in 2019. The dis) Soion was such that the Democrat Clin)n was elected president in 1992 with only 43% of the votes. The data of suppo So for Trump includes one last paradox: that 46.8% achieved in 2020 is almost one point higher than the 45.9% harvested in 2016, with which it did reach the White House.

Democrats jab at Congress. Biden’s vic)ry and the subsequent expulsion of Trump from the White House allows the Democratic Pa Soy ) overcome the trauma of 2016, when a seemingly impossible candidate defeated a manual candidate. However, the polls have sent worrying signals ) Democrats. In the House of Representatives, which they controlled with 232 seats (compared ) 197 Republicans), they retain the majority, with 222, but have lost a dozen representatives. Republicans have risen, so far, ) 211, waiting for two seats ) be decided still in the air. The dream of regaining the Senate has turned uphill, with a runoff in Georgia that would force them ) win both seats at stake in that traditionally conservative terri)ry. And that key vote, on January 5, will mark the mandate of the new Democratic president, since a Republican-controlled upper house can tie up a good pa So of his initiatives if he fails ) build consensus. Democrats have also failed ) turn any of the state legislatures from red ) blue. So the pa Soy has done worse than Biden and the internal debate continues: the moderates, like Obama, warn of )o extreme speeches (such as the one that asks ) cut police spending) and the leftists, like Alexandria Ocasio-Co Soez, point out poor organization and little field work.

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