Global oil demand will recover to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022, as recovering economies require oil-producing countries to pump more fossil fuels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, collectively known as OPEC +, will need to “turn on the taps to keep world oil markets adequately supplied,” the world energy watchdog said. in its monthly oil report.
Oil demand is expected to rebound by 5.4 million barrels per day this year, one of the fastest increases on record, and by another 3.1 million in 2022, pushing crude consumption above the average. 100 million for the first time by the end of next year. the IEA said.
It follows a record drop in 2020 as Covid-19 took hold around the world, temporarily closing factories, disrupting trade and putting the brakes on international travel, causing demand to plunge by 9 million barrels per day.
The watchdog’s forecast of rising appetite for crude threatens to disappoint those who expected global oil use would have peaked in 2019 before the pandemic, underscoring the “enormous effort needed to get on track” to achieve the energy sector’s goal of zero net carbon emissions. emissions by 2050, considered crucial to combat the climate emergency.
The IEA had warned a year ago that global oil demand could rise faster in 2021 than ever before, unless more green policies are adopted to curb consumption.
The launch of the vaccine is expected to contribute to the increase in oil consumption. The IEA warned that while the end of the pandemic is in sight in advanced economies, “the slow distribution of vaccines could still jeopardize the recovery in non-OECD countries.”
He predicted that the post-Covid recovery will be uneven across regions of the world, and the rebound in demand for oil will vary between sectors and products.
Kerosene and jet fuel will see the biggest jump in demand, increasing by 1.5 million barrels a day year-over-year as air travel slowly restarts after the pandemic, although the IEA anticipates that the sector of Aviation will be the slowest to experience a full recovery, as travel restrictions are expected to remain in place for some time.
The IEA forecasts smaller jumps in demand for gasoline and diesel as people return to their cars, but predicts that this will remain below pre-Covid levels, as a result of a permanent shift to more work at home. and increased sales of electric vehicles and more. efficient cars.
The IEA does not foresee any problems with oil producers in order to meet the growing demand, but added that the timing of the lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil was important.
OPEC + cut oil production at the start of the pandemic in 2020, and has Gradually unroll the cutsbut has not submitted its plans beyond July.
Growing demand for oil has driven up crude prices in recent weeks. They moved above $ 72.70 a barrel on Friday, a day after closing at their highest level since May 2019.
“The reopening of Europe, strong Chinese industrial activity and recent encouraging signs from the United States provide bullish signals for traders around the world and are key drivers of the ongoing rally,” said Louise Dickson, oil markets analyst at the consultancy. Rystad Energy.
Dickson added that there is consensus that OPEC + will have to end its conservative approach to oil production that has been in place since 2020. “OPEC + will have to loosen the valve and bring more supply back faster, from otherwise you risk a further increase in prices, “he said.
George is Digismak’s reported cum editor with 13 years of experience in Journalism