Wednesday, August 10

How Canada can qualify for the World Cup in Qatar: Explaining the scenarios for CanMNT in 2022



Canada has qualified for just one FIFA Men’s World Cup in the nation’s history, but that could change before the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.

Les Rouges lead the final round of CONCACAF World Cup qualifying with eight games to go, and there is a real chance that Canada could qualify for their first World Cup since 1986. Still, there is a lot of work to be done to clinch one of the three direct matches. bunks with a group of four teams in dispute.

The United States sits just one point off second place, with a head-to-head matchup between the two sides looming at the end of the month. Mexico and Panama are also within striking distance of just two points away, meaning things could change quickly, especially with three games in the span of seven days at the end of January.

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The next Day 9 will be absolutely critical. Given that the top four teams are within two points of each other, and all four face the bottom four teams, it’s entirely possible that a poor result could change the landscape of the standings.

CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying Standings

Below are the current standings in the race to qualify for the 2022 World Cup from the CONCACAF region.

The top three teams earn automatic qualification for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, while the fourth-place team will play an intercontinental playoff against the winner from the Oceana region. The last four teams are eliminated.

Country Pts GP W L D girlfriend Georgia GD
Canada sixteen 8 4 4 13 5 +8
U.S fifteen 8 4 one 3 12 5 +7
Mexico 14 8 4 two two eleven 7 +4
Panama 14 8 4 two two eleven 9 +2
Costa Rica 9 8 two 3 3 6 7 -one
Jamaica 7 8 one 3 4 6 10 -4
The Savior 6 8 one 4 3 4 10 -6
Honduras 3 8 5 3 5 fifteen -10

Canada World Cup Qualifying Schedule and Results

Below is the full list of Canada’s past results and upcoming matches in the quest for the 2022 World Cup qualification.

Date Coincide Time (ET) Television / Stream
September 2, 2021 Canada one,Honduras one Reflexes
September 5, 2021 U.S one, Canada one Reflexes
September 8, 2021 Canada 3, The Savior Reflexes
October 7, 2021 Mexico one, Canada one Reflexes
October 10, 2021 Jamaica , Canada Reflexes
October 13, 2021 Canada 4, Panama one Reflexes
November 12, 2021 Canada one, Costa Rica Reflexes
November 16, 2021 Canada two, Mexico one Reflexes
January 27, 2022 Honduras vs. Canada 8:05 p.m. Eastern Time
January 30, 2022 Canada vs. United States 3:05 p.m. Eastern Time
February 2, 2022 El Salvador vs. Canada 9 p.m. ET
March 24, 2022 Costa Rica vs. Canada Determined
March 27, 2022 Canada vs. Jamaica Determined
March 30, 2022 Panama vs Canada Determined
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How many points to qualify for the World Cup?

If we are using previous World Cup regional qualifying cycles for historical comparisons, we need to use the PPG metric, as only 10 CONCACAF final round matches were played in previous cycles (compared to 14 in the final round of CONCACAF). calendar in the run-up to Qatar 2022).

While the number of matches differed, the top three places qualified directly for each World Cup listed below (points per match for each qualifying team are noted in bold). And since the 2006 World Cup, the fourth-place team advances to a playoff against a nation from another region.

Qualification 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8
1998 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.6
2002 23 1.7 1.7 1.4 0.8 0.5
2006 2.2 2.2 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.2
2010 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.6 0.8 0.6
2014 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.5
2018 2.1 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.6
2022 * 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.4

Canada Qualifying Results Projection

So what realistically needs to happen for Canada to be comfortably in that 1.8-1.9 points per game range it needs to qualify without breaking a sweat? Or, if fans want to dream big, how can they push towards the 2.0 PPG barrier to claim the top spot?

MORE: Which teams have qualified for the 2022 World Cup?

We try to project results for the last six matches, taking a set of less favorable results to find the minimum required to qualify comfortably. Canada is currently unbeaten in first place, but has just two home games left in its last six (against the USA and Jamaica) with four trips to Central America to come.

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The least favorable set of results includes one loss and three draws in those last six games. Taking into account a possible loss at home to the United States, plus away draws in Panama, Costa Rica and Honduras, the resulting total of 25 points (and an approximate mark of 1.8 points per game) should be enough to qualify. .

Those results, however, leave little room for error, as a slip in either match would complicate matters. For example, a draw against Jamaica or El Salvador instead of a win would leave Canada in a very vulnerable position (1.6 PPG), especially if the other teams around them continued to rack up wins. Clearly, a result (perhaps a win?) against the United States at home would go a long way to allaying those fears.

Canada’s strong start has given them some wiggle room, and CanMNT supporters are hoping the team can avoid a scenario where they would need a final match result in Panama to secure a place in Qatar.

Coincide Date Opponent / Result PPG
9 Thursday, January 27, 2022 Honduras 0, Canada 0 (Draw) 1.9
10 Sunday, January 30, 2022 Canada 0, United States 1 (Lost) 1.7
eleven Wednesday, February 2, 2022 El Salvador 0, Canada 2 (Victory) 1.8
12 Thursday, March 24, 2022 Costa Rica 1, Canada 1 (Draw) 1.8
13 Sunday March 27, 2022 Canada 1, Jamaica 0 (Victory) 1.8
14 Wednesday, March 30, 2022 Panama 2, Canada 2 (Draw) 1.8

How Canada can secure World Cup qualification

With six games remaining in the qualifying cycle and the top four teams within two points, there is still a lot of work to be done and a very small margin for error.

The top four teams have been clearly established, with a relatively sizeable gap between fourth and fifth. There are only three guaranteed places for qualification; the country that finishes in fourth place will have to play a single-elimination intercontinental playoff against the representative of Oceania, which is likely to be New Zealand.

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Canada is undefeated in eight games, with four wins and four draws for the Maple Leafs, and the ability to secure results away from home has been key. They earned draws along the way against the United States, Mexico and Jamaica. Add that to a 4W-0L-1D record at home, including a famous 2-1 home win over Mexico, and the points have come in bunches.

MORE: How the intercontinental World Cup playoffs work

With four of their last six games scheduled to be away from home, Canada will need the road warrior mentality to advance. Their remaining two home games against the United States and Jamaica will be critical.

Canadian fans are hoping the results of the next three-match set beginning in late January, including that home match against the US, will allow him to control his own destiny heading into the final international window.

CONCACAF qualifying playoffs

There is always the possibility that the CONCACAF standings are very tight and Canada is tied on points with one or more of the other seven nations in the standings. Tiebreakers would come into play.

Here are the table tiebreakers for teams level on points:

  1. Goal difference in all group matches
  2. Most goals scored in all group matches
  3. Most points obtained in the group matches between the teams in question
  4. Goal difference from the group matches between the teams in question
  5. Most goals scored in group matches between the teams in question
  6. Goals scored away from home (if two teams are tied)
  7. Discipline points (based on yellow/red cards)
  8. FIFA draw

The Qatar World Cup will be played from November 21 to December 18, 2022.




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