Thursday, March 28

Hurricane Danielle still had one thing to say, and it was a good one: showers and storms this weekend


Hurricane Danielle “is already the tropical cyclone formed north of 38ºN latitude that has released the most energy” since we can remember. In other words, although much of the media interest has passed, Hurricane Danielle continues to break records and, surprisingly, has managed to head for the Peninsula. But the most curious of all is that this is excellent news.


A hurricane spinning in the Atlantic. Hurricane Danielle is still a whole school of meteorology. For most of his very short life, his behavior has completely ignored of the most likely scenarios and has been surprising specialists day after day. The best example is what is happening right now: after a 360 degree turn in the middle of the Atlantic, Danielle has once again pointed towards the peninsula. Rapier It does not stop being “one more proof of the high uncertainty inherent in these systems”, will bring many things, but above all, an important change in time.

It won’t be exactly Danielle, of course; It will be the remains of the hurricane, a deep storm that is now pointing to mainland Spain and will leave “bad seas, strong winds and abundant rainfall” from Sunday, September 11, and during the first half of next week.

They were? That is the big question of everyone who has followed the evolution of Danielle and how the different international organizations (and their models) did not stop changing the predictions. This is not strange, actually. As we have insisted in the last week, unlike cyclones in tropical areas (whose greater uncertainty has to do with intensity), cyclones that form in mid-latitudes have many problems when calculating the trajectory.

Also Read  Best sports watches to practice basketball that you can buy

What do we know today? Of course, as the days get closer, our models improve their reliability. Even because the system does not have much more time to evolve in extra ways. Currently, as Martín León explains, “Danielle is far from Spain and is a category 1 hurricane”, but it will not be for a long time.

The system is undergoing “very deep processes as it integrates into the flows from the west.” That is to say, it is going headlong to experience an extratropical transition: it is in the process of becoming a deep storm. It is a storm that, as it is still very far from the country, it already seems clear that it will affect us this coming Sunday, entering from the west in its most conventional form.

The threat to Spain that Hurricane Danielle drags with it has a name: extratropical transition

What can we expect? As things stand, we can expect a strong Atlantic storm. That is to say, “strong winds, rough seas” and, as the post-Danielle system will drag with it “subtropical and polar moisture tongues”, rainfall is “persistent, abundant and efficient” that runs through the Peninsula from the Galician coast to the Balearic Islands .

fchrwipxeaecq3m

Change of trend? These rains (especially if they are as intense as we expect) would really come in handy. We must not forget that today the reservoir water is at 35% (compared to 41% last year and 53% of the average of the last ten years). In fact, there are areas of the country (such as Andalusia) that are at 25%. We have already talked about “autumn” and “water restrictions” going hand in hand: but the truth is that if the trend does not change, the problems are going to be very serious.

Also Read  Hubble vs Webb: NASA's David and Goliaths that work better together than separately

And, in this sense, the third consecutive episode of La Niña leaves us in a very bad situation because this phase of ENSO is traditionally associated with drought in the Peninsula. Could the changes in the Atlantic and, above all, the activation of hurricanes in the tropics change this situation? This is one of the central questions of the coming months and we have a lot at stake in it.



Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *