- “It’s been eerily quiet out there,” Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach told USA TODAY.
- There are three separate systems developing in the Atlantic as the calendar turns to September, the National Hurricane Center said.
- The peak of the hurricane season is typically around September 10.
For the first time since 1997, not a single hurricane or tropical storm formed in the Atlantic basin in August. This includes storms that spin up in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.
“It’s been eerily quiet out there,” Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach told USA TODAY. In fact, Klotzbach said it is the first time since 1941 that there were no named Atlantic storms from July 3 to Aug. 30.
So far this season, back in June and July, three tropical storms have formed (Alex, Bonnie and Colin), none of which strengthened into a hurricane. A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when its sustained winds reach 74 mph.
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Storms likely to form soon
There are three separate systems developing in the Atlantic as the calendar turns to September, the National Hurricane Center said, so the stormless streak will likely end soon. However, none of the three systems appears likely to have any impact on the US in the days ahead.
One system spinning in the open Atlantic looks poised to become Tropical Storm Danielle within the next day or so. And another one looks like it could become Tropical Storm Earl. Some computer models show Earl strengthening into a hurricane over the weekend in the north Atlantic, far away from land.
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Should we blame the TUTT?
So what happened to all the predictions of a “hyperactive” hurricane season? (The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that six to 10 Atlantic hurricanes would form this year, compared with the norm of seven.)
In part, Klotzbach blames a meteorological phenomenon known by the acronym “TUTT,” which brings an increase in drier air and wind shear that can weaken developing storms.
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“The primary reason for the increase in shear and drier air has been frequent incursions of the tropical upper-tropospheric trough (TUTT),” he said. He said the TUTT is a low-pressure area at around 20,000-30,000 feet in the atmosphere that tends to reside in the western Atlantic Ocean during hurricane season.
In active Atlantic hurricane seasons, the TUTT tends to be weaker. But that hasn’t been the case this year. “The TUTT is typically associated with increased westerly shear as well as dry air being brought southward from the mid-latitudes,” Klotzbach told USA TODAY.
So is hurricane season over?
“It’s unclear at this point if we’re just in for a super-quiet season where everybody busts their seasonal forecast, or if things will pick up markedly as we approach the season peak,” he said.
The peak of the hurricane season is typically around Sept. fifteen.
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What does the past show us? Since 1950, we’ve had two Augusts with no named storms: 1961 and 1997, Klotzbach said. And 1961 had an extremely busy September that ended up a hyperactive season, while 1997 was a strong El Niño year and was a below-average season.
www.usatoday.com
George is Digismak’s reported cum editor with 13 years of experience in Journalism