Monday, January 24

Ignacio Camacho: Andalusia, show flat



Politics always revolve, but more so in this volatile time that devours stages faster than it can digest, around the elections. When there are not, because they do not play given the bad legal habit of anticipating them every four years, the reasonable time for a government to do something useful, politicians, journalists and the most politicized citizens invent speculations about when there will be. And since in 2022 it does not touch any until the end of November -the Andalusians- we wait an eternity as if the vote burned the people in the hands and everyone was eager to release it. There is a rush, especially on a right that is seen in

rise, for giving Sánchez a second blow after Ayuso’s in May. So that Juanma Moreno has been under strong pressure, from within his party and from outside, to put the ballot boxes as soon as possible, right now or at the beginning of the year in the worst case scenario. The man tries to resist, either because of institutional responsibility, because he does not seem opportunistic or simply because he does not see it clearly, but without the support of Vox – eager to confirm the good prognosis of the demographic – and with the national leadership of the PP pushing, he will it will be very difficult to exhaust the mandate. Yesterday, perhaps to shake off the pressure a bit, he admitted in Canal Sur that there will be advancement. In October or June, he added, to end by suggesting that it will be before the summer. Write down a date (which he did not give): May 29.

The question is important because Andalusia, as a test ground or pilot flat, is more like the rest of Spain than Madrid. Its economy is less dynamic, with intense dependence on the public sector, and the correlation of political forces is more balanced. The PSOE, despite the still weak leadership of Juan Espadas, retains a strong territorial and social implantation as a result of its long dominance. He governs in six of the eight councils and in seven out of ten municipalities, a sufficient political muscle to put any rival in a bind due to the fact that the polls are presented to him. The president of the Board knows this and fears that any event – for example a re-outbreak of Covid – will complicate things and break the control of the times. Of course, a new socialist defeat like the one predicted by the polls would leave the left-wing national executive seriously injured and could end up dismantling the sanchismo by accentuating the sensation of a change in the cycle on a national scale. Casado needs a success that clears doubts and mutes the noise of the recent conflicts, but Moreno watches over his own destiny and does not want interference that puts him in danger. The experience of coming to power for a carom teaches him not to take any victory for granted. The beaches of politics are littered with broken seashells where promising expectations once sounded.

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