Thursday, March 28

IMF to downgrade global growth forecasts amid Ukraine invasion and inflation – business live | Business


Good morning, and welcome to our live rolling coverage of the latest in business, economics and financial markets.

the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will today outline the expected cost to the world economy of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and rising global prices, in its latest GDP forecasts.

Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, said last week that higher prices for food and energy casued by the invasion would hit global growth for 2022 and 2023. It has downgraded the growth outlook for 143 countries around the world, she said.

In Ukraine much economic activity has stopped, including the supply of vital commodities like wheat, while Russia has been targeted by severe sanctions and countries that rely on it for oil and gas are scrambling to find alternatives. While neither is among the first tier of globally connected economies, the invasion has added to a series of global economic tensions, including bunged up supply chains and strict lockdowns in Chinese cities such as Shanghai that could further dent the global economy.

Economists at Deutsche Bank expect recessions in the US and the euro area within the next two years, and Mohamed El-Erian, a prominent economic advisor to insurer Allianz, warns that “stagflation” could be the order of the day: non-existent economic growth coupled with high price increases.

Mohamed A. El-Erian
(@elerianm)

Look for today’s release of the revised #IM F forecasts for individual countries and the global economy.
They will have a distinct stagflationary nature.
Analytically, the toughest forecasting challenge is capturing the feedback loops that are set to intensify in the months ahead.


April 19, 2022

Russia on Monday started an offensive in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region, according to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy. The push has been expected for weeks after the invasion ground to a halt in the north of the country around the capital, Kyiv.

Russian president Vladimir Putin had intended to capture Kyiv and remove his leadership, but he appears to have pivoted to capturing the eastern Donbas region after his first strategy failed. Ukraine’s presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak described it as the beginning of “the second phase of the war”, but the country has said it will defend itself against the invasion.

It is relatively calm on UK stock markets after the four-day Easter weekend, with the FTSE100 dipping by 0.1% on the opening bell. However, the export-exposed Germany’s Dax benchmark dropped 0.7% and France’s Cac 40 fell by 0.9%.

Shares in Hong Kong fell heavily after the Chinese government put pressure on tech companies in video streaming and food delivery. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng stock index dropped 2.4% as a result.

agenda

  • 1:30pm BST: US housing starts (March; previous: 1.77m; consensus: 1.74m)
  • 2pm BST: International Monetary Fund to publish world economic outlook




www.theguardian.com

Also Read  6 alimentos y bebidas que ayudan a acelerar tu digestión

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *