Lieutenant General Francisco Gan.
The former head of the intelligence center of the Armed Forces trusts that the Russian military leadership will prevent a nuclear escalation
The information handled by Francisco Gan Pampols during his time as head of intelligence for the Armed Forces (2013-2017) already reflected the territorial expansion of the Russian Federation in parallel to its rearmament. “Putin concluded in 2008 that the worst tragedy of the 20th century had been the fall of the USSR,” recalls this three-star officer, who went into the reserve in 2019 after directing the NATO High Readiness Land Headquarters and that of Fast Deployment. Gan (Figueras, 1958) is pessimistic about the future of this “unrestricted” war in Ukraine. He does not rule out that the Russian troops enter “blood and fire” in Kiev as they did in Grozny, and believes that the solution lies in determining how far Zelensky can accept a defeat, “because losing is going to lose.”
Does the invasion of Ukraine enter a decisive phase with the siege of Kiev?
It will exert an element of pressure on the ceasefire talks. Initial planning called for a quick, surgical attack on the capital, but they did not count on Ukrainian resistance. If at any time the city is surrounded, it is likely that the Russian troops will redouble the offensive to break Zelensky’s will. Another option is to go into blood and fire, as happened in Grozny during the second Chechen war.
What factor will play the kilometric Russian column that is at the gates of Kiev?
It’s in logistical approach, not in combat order. They are columns of marching units that will provide material support if the siege continues over time.
Kiev is the nexus between the pro-Western west and the Russian-speaking east. In addition to its symbolism, is it as strategic as it seems?
It is part of the ‘Russification’ of the territories under Moscow’s influence. Putin’s ultimate goal is to isolate Ukraine from the EU and NATO with this territorial conflict, reduce essential elements such as the mining areas in the east and prevent access to the Black Sea.
Reminiscences of the origin of Russia?
Putin’s speech has to do with the process of unification of the East Slavic tribes since the 9th century, which gave rise to Russia. It is the so-called «Rus of Kiev», which went from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea in the south. Putin’s mirror, his ‘Don Pelayo’, is Prince Vladimir I of Kiev, the Great. A mythical figure to justify that Ukraine and Russia are the same.
What kind of tactical warfare are we seeing?
It is a multidomain conflict, that is, we see conventional media and others not so much. Components of economic warfare, cyberspace, disinformation or actions on satellites to alter warfare systems with GPS. But the dominant aspect is the amount of steel that is being moved and the caliber of the weapons. A similar war was the one in the Gulf 30 years ago.
Aren’t there few experts who speak openly about the failure of the invasion?
The logistics planning has been disastrous: supply problems, lack of recovery equipment, lack of basic supplies… We are seeing images that speak fatally of the Army, such as the looting of facilities and supermarkets. A clear example of indiscipline and disorder.
How amazing do these images seem to you?
Of course, to any control that intervenes. Looting is a sign of inefficiency; abandoned vehicles due to lack of fuel is a forecasting problem; those that are damaged, poor planning. If Ukraine had aerial means, those columns would be crushed.
nuclear holocaust
What would be the point of no return for a NATO intervention?
Direct aggression against an ally, although in no case do I believe that Putin’s nihilistic paranoia of attacking exists. NATO is showing that deterrence is effective and that there is a will for collective defense.
Do you think sending arms from Spain is reasonable?
It is a measure that had been adopted collectively by the EU at the time the European Peace Support Fund (FEAP) was activated. We follow the example of our environment and the final meaning is the same.
Is the option to use the nuclear weapon real?
I rule out this option because it means a nuclear escalation in the region with unimaginable consequences. I refuse to believe that Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu or General Valeri Gerasimov, chief of the General Staff, could abide by a nuclear holocaust.
Can China become the actor of pacification?
Seeing how Putin has built a pyramidal and monolithic system in Russia, it is true that the answer may come from outside. Aggressiveness does not suit Beijing, but it is counting on being the solution to alleviate economic sanctions. On the other hand, Putin’s survival will depend on the ability to place his story on Ukraine. In Zelensky’s case it will be to what extent he can accept defeat, but losing is going to lose.
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Eddie is an Australian news reporter with over 9 years in the industry and has published on Forbes and tech crunch.