Friday, June 24

is more competitive than Iglesias among the socialist electorate




The succession in the leadership of United We Can will have a direct impact on the PSOE. In two spheres. First in the day to day of the Government coalition and second in the medium term as electoral competitors. Although the general feeling is that it is still “too early” to be able to assess it. In the internal coexistence in the Executive, in Unidos Podemos they claim that Díaz will give continuity to the relationship that Pedro Sánchez maintains with Pablo Iglesias.

Of course, in the PSOE they pointed out yesterday that it will be “inevitable” that the future vice president will have more capacity to condition the main economic debates, where some of the most relevant pulses for the coalition are fought and remain to be fought. In the Government they think that the differences between the partners “will not vary substantially”, but that they will probably be handled with more prudence. Iglesias is an expert in communication and transferring the clashes to the media was part of his strategy. A socialist minister is confident that this will change. But another cabinet colleague recalls the pressure that Díaz exerted regarding the Minimum Interprofessional Salary.

In the electoral section, the relationship between the PSOE and Unidas Podemos has long been consolidated by the socialist superiority with respect to the populist conglomerate since in 2017 Pedro Sánchez recovered the general secretary of the PSOE. Access to La Moncloa in June 2018 pulverized the possibilities of sorpasso on the left. The 2019 elections consolidated the new distribution of forces.

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It is still too early to be able to project whether or not this new leadership, which will have to adapt to complex organic balances, will improve the possibilities of United We Can. But in the face to face between the two formations, the figure of Díaz anticipates worrying elements for the socialists. Ivan Redondo has always considered that despite the continuous electoral wear of Podemos, the strength of the brand was still closely associated with the figure of Pablo Iglesias. It has never been considered that profiles such as Irene Montero or Alberto Garzón could keep the party in its current pulse. Díaz is a different case.

Sánchez and Iglesias have been rivals since 2014. They have taken the measure. In the PSOE the consideration is generalized that in elections he is a good candidate. But, at the same time, the socialists had “taken the measure” to Iglesias, in the words of a socialist leader. It refers to data that in the PSOE’s demoscopic analyzes have been very present in recent years. Something that is extracted from CIS data in each series that is published, but also from many private studies.

The current relationship between leaders was uneven in favor of socialist interests due to a fundamental issue: the assessment of Pablo Iglesias by socialist voters is negative. While Pedro Sánchez has a good evaluation among the UP electorate. The latter is very present in La Moncloa and explains why Sánchez has granted victories to his partners these months in the pulses that the coalition has experienced.

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This reality made the leaks of vote from the PSOE to United We could be practically sealed, while the other way around the trend has been that of a transfer to the socialist ranks. But the Minister of Labor, who is one of the best valued according to the CIS behind Margarita Robles and Nadia Calviño, corrects this drift. Because it does have a good assessment by socialist voters. «It will probably compete better in our electorate, I think especially in the female vote», Acknowledged yesterday an autonomous president consulted.

A member of the Government endorsed this hypothesis, but at the same time there are doubts about the validity of Podemos beyond its founder. «United We Can is an electoral coalition. She was not from Podemos but from IU, where she left. Governing that ship is not going to be easy. Pablo’s is a messianic leadership in Podemos ”, sums up a socialist leader. “Right now it seems indisputable but we will see how the farewell of a leadership like that of Iglesias is managed,” he concludes.

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