The Spurs’ season has been progressing to the point where honestly no one knows what they’re doing (except the front office). At one point we thought they were tanking, now they’re vying for the play-in tournament. Regardless, what we do know is that players are showing up at the right moments.
Third-year forward Keldon Johnson is one such player. During the Spurs’ four-game winning streak, he’s averaged 20.5 points. Against the Golden State Warriors on March 20, Johnson had the game-winning putback and finished the night with 14 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assists as the Spurs won 110-108.
Johnson has made significant leaps this season by way of his shooting. Before this year it was unclear what role would he fit in to. He only played 17 games his rookie year — the COVID-19 shortened 2019-20 season — so this is only his second true season, and it looks like he’s found a role that works for him: 3-point specialist.
“That’s a skill he has developed this year that frankly kind of surprised us all,” Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich said to the Express-News. “That’s not what we expected him to improve in to that degree.”
In 2020-2021, Johnson shot 33.1% from 3-point range, which was below the league average of 36.7. This season, the league average has fallen to 35.2, but Johnson’s has jumped to 39.7%. That’s a leap that is more than significant. Shooting can develop over time, and it’s not uncommon for a player to learn their jump shot as they get older. But going from below average to 25th best in the league over one year is worth noting.
“An 82-game season is a grind,” Johnson said to the Express-News. “I started off slow. I wasn’t shooting the ball well. And people talk. But my teammates had my back, my coaches had my back and I just continued to work hard each and every day. … Shots started to fall.”
Johnson’s shooting success is important on a couple levels.We’ll have to be a bit nerdy and break down the shot chart to see why. The first thing to notice is he shoots well from the corners (52%) but still knocks it down decently from elsewhere (37%), per Cleaningtheglass.com. Things get a little more interesting when breaking down the advanced tracking data. He shoots most and best off catch-and-shoot 3-pointers, no surprise there. But what is surprising is that most of his attempts are going up early to middle of the shot clock, when there is between 18 to 7 seconds left, per NBA.com.
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – MARCH 20: Keldon Johnson #3 of the San Antonio Spurs celebrates after he got an offensive rebound and put back bucket to take the lead against the Golden State Warriors late in the fourth quarter of an NBA basketball game at Chase Center on March 20, 2022 in San Francisco, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
Thearon W. Henderson, Stringer / Getty ImagesWhat’s this mean? First, that these open looks aren’t happening because of total collapses in the play. They aren’t flukes. The pattern indicates that these are genuine good looks generated by offensive actions. It’s why almost all of Johnson’s attempts happen when the closest defender is at least 4 to 6 feet away, he’s open. Johnson is staying disciplined and being the open perimeter shooter, trusting the ball will find him and it does.
Second, it’s showing that this group is getting into their actions early, which is more important than it sounds. Analytics show that the better a team gets into its actions, the better. Typically a team finds its open shooters after finding a way to collapse the defense. The fact the Spurs are finding their open shooter early speaks to the discipline and diligence of the Popovichian system. They are attacking and kicking out or feeding the open shooter directly. This keeps pace up as well as everyone on their toes.
“He is very confident with his 3-pointers,” Spurs center Jakob Poeltl said to the Express-News. “When he gets his 3s off, it doesn’t really matter much if they are contested or not. It’s just like he is staying in his routine, and he is knocking them down. It’s very impressive.”
This all means that these players are finding their roles in the bigger picture as this season starts to wrap up. This year the roster was kind of a loose collection of prospects but now it’s starting to take form. Dejounte Murray is the leader, Lonnie Walker is the bench scorer, and Johnson is the shooter. The roster is still young — Johnson is 22 and the Spurs’ average age is 24 — so it will still take some time, but it’s optimistic to see roles start to be defined.
“It’s great,” Murray said of Johnson’s play to the Express-News. “He’s scoring, shooting well. He’s always been a driver, so we expect that. But I hope his mentality is, ‘I don’t care because we lost,’ because that’s the mentality I live with. I don’t care if I played the best game of my career. If we lost, it doesn’t mean nothing.”
George is Digismak’s reported cum editor with 13 years of experience in Journalism