The Italian elections have generated two basic reactions. The first is a mixture of scandal and dismay at the result. The advance of the Brothers of Italy (FdI) stands out, going from 4% of the vote in 2018 to 26%: a notable advantage over its closest rival, the Democratic Party (PD, 19%). The disaster and lack of orientation of the forces of the left, together with the historical advance of abstention (more than a third of the electorate stayed at home), complete a picture of social disenchantment. The second reaction is semantic. Is FdI a fascist, hard right, ultraconservative, nationalist-identitarian, illiberal party, or all of the above? This question is relatively easy to clarify. The FdI, following the approach of the Italian intellectual Enzo Traverso, is a ‘post-fascist’ formation. It comes from the Italian Social Movement, whose founder, Giorgio Almirante, was a leader of the Republic of Saló. Giorgia Meloni – at the head of the formation since 2014, Minister of Youth between 2008 and 2011 – has never hidden that background. Everything indicates that the government that he will lead – which will include Matteo Salvini’s League (9% of the vote) and Silvio Berlusconi’s Fuerza Italia (8%) – will be inspired by the example of countries such as Hungary and Poland. As the radical right-wing expert Guillermo Fernández Vázquez explains, these forces are joined by an essentialist and reactionary conception of their respective nations–supposedly threatened by immigrants, “globalism” and the erosion of traditional values–. But three key issues separate them. The first is its relationship with the Russia of Vladimir Putin: a traditionalist and authoritarian ruler, but uncomfortable for Brussels (understood as the headquarters of NATO rather than the EU). Another is its economic agenda (in some cases ultraliberal, in others, defender of a sort of chauvinist welfare state). The last is their attitude towards the European integration process, which ranges from Europhobic positions to those who seek to twist the EU to adapt it to their preferences. In the European Parliament, these positions correspond to those of the Identity and Democracy (ID) group and the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), respectively. Despite her often histrionic speech, Meloni’s positions in these three areas are the most assimilable for the European establishment. She is in favor of NATO and it is her Putinist coalition partner, Salvini, who has suffered a strong electoral erosion. She has chaired the ECR group since September 2020. And her economic recipes will be conventional. With a public debt that is around 150% of GDP and an economy that has been stagnant for decades – specifically, those that have elapsed since its entry into the euro – Italy can hardly stir up clashes with Brussels that would hinder the disbursement of ‘Next Generation’ funds. But this fragility should not be a reason for gloating. As the economist Philipp Heimberger explains, Italy’s problems do not derive from the laziness of its political class or the vices of its society, but from structural flaws in the whole of the European political economy, which will not be resolved until the EU commits to new growth models. All these nuances are perhaps lost in a general debate that, like every time Italy holds elections, declaims the dangers of “populism” and “demagoguery.” We return to the combination of scandal and consternation indicated in the first paragraph. It should be noted that the rise of “populist” forces such as the FdI, the Lega or the Five Star Movement (M5S) cannot be understood without their mirror image: technical governments such as those of Mario Draghi and Mario Monti. «The technocracy maintains that there is only one type of possible public policy; populism, that there is only one authentic voice of the people”, explains political scientist Jan-Werner Müller. “Neither the technocrats nor the populists see a great need for democratic debates. In a sense, both are curiously apolitical. Italy is a paradigmatic case of how both trends feed off each other. Meloni will not be able to reverse this trend, but it will aggravate its most harmful effects. Jorge Tamames is a researcher at the ElCano Royal Institute
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George is Digismak’s reported cum editor with 13 years of experience in Journalism