Sunday, November 28

Juanma Moreno rules out an imminent electoral advance: his dilemma is June or October 2022

The national policy is pending of Juanma Moreno. The Andalusian president has the exclusive power to call elections in the autonomous community and the pressure, for months, has not stopped. It comes and goes with intensity, it does not decay. Now that his 2022 budget project is closer to rejection than support in Parliament, the rumors have resumed with more force than before. No decision is made, they assure THE PERIODIC OF SPAIN sources of the Junta de Andalucía, except one: there will be no advance imminent.

The legislature, therefore, will enter its last year, next year. That it reaches December, which is when it is time to dissolve the Andalusian Chamber, is another story. Sources stress that almost certainly not. Then two dates begin to gain strength. They’re still generic, but here’s the president’s dilemma: call for June 2022 or call for October. It would be, in both cases, a merely technical electoral advance.

Juan Marín. TERM

Moreno is aware that in his own party, in the Andalusian opposition, in the headquarters of the PSOE on Ferraz Street and in Moncloa they are closely watching him, because the electoral date he chooses will activate strategies and leadership. The future results will largely depend on what results in these elections. by Pablo Casado, by Pedro Sánchez, by Juan Espadas, by Inés Arrimadas, by Juan Marín, by Santiago Abascal, who knows if by Macarena Olona, ​​the space that Yolanda Díaz wants to bring together and even Íñigo Errejón, whose training still doubts how go to the polls, if alone or in coalition, if in all the provinces or only in the most populated ones.

Faced with such a scenario, with so many variables, the arguments that the Andalusian president uses are the following, according to the version of the sources of the Board.

The attitude of PSOE and Vox

At the end of the month the Andalusian Parliament will debate the amendments to the entire budget of the coalition formed by PP and Cs. Most likely, one of them will prosper, perhaps that of the PSOE, perhaps that of Vox.

Juan Espadas and Pedro Sánchez. EFE

That the public accounts remain at the end in a drawer of the office of the Minister of Finance, Juan Bravo, falls within the foreseen. The president would like to carry out a project that, according to the Board itself, grows to 44,000 million euros, 9% more compared to the amount of current budgets. Some 5.9 billion have been included to convey the European funds and the investments that entail.

In the environment of the president they begin to assume that they will not come out. The current accounts can maintain the economic dynamism sought, therefore. The vice president, Juan Marin, from Cs, said it with more colloquial expressions in an internal meeting of his parliamentary group. The audio, broadcast by the SER, has caused tremors in the Andalusian political scene, but little has been noticed in San Telmo.

Macarena Olona. EFE

Therefore, rather than worrying about the rejection of budgets, they are worrying about possible rejections that come later. If from February, when parliamentary activity returns, the “PSOE-Vox clamp” blocks the legislative agenda of the PP-Cs Government, Moreno could call for the advance.

Economic recovery

A recent report from the Unicaja Banco Group, collected by Efe, predicts a 6 percent growth in the Andalusian economy over the coming year and an increase in the occupancy rate of around 2-3 percent. These are figures that would place activity at levels prior to the pandemic. Forecasts for the end of this year are promising as well.

Moreno is obsessed with these two indicators, that of the reactivation of the economy and that of the creation of jobs.. Although controversies with the interim health personnel have recently arisen, the climate is more or less mild. Calling untimely elections and hindering the march undertaken is something that he wants to avoid by all means, sources point out.

Isabel Díaz Ayuso. Eusebio Garcia del Castillo

The evolution of the pandemic will decisively influence economic calculations. If the health situation is controlled and restrictions can be avoided, the Holy Week from 2022 It will be held under normal conditions. Their dates span from April 10 to 17, and it is already known what these dates mean for Andalusia. Locating an electoral day close to said festivity is not an option that is contemplated in San Telmo. The same happens when talking about the April Fair, scheduled for the first week of May.

From then on, if the legislative blockade persists, Moreno could announce the call. As the Andalusian electoral regulations leave the legal deadlines in the hands of the national regulations, 54 days have to elapse from the day of the call itself. This calculation leads to June.

The regional legislation on elections does establish that between July 1 and August 31 there can be no elections. Consequently, the date of hypothetical advance it would go to October.

The national panorama

Juanma Moreno is a political leader trained in the plumbing of the PP. Since he was president of New Generations, he has watched political movements closely. You know that before leading citizens to an electoral cycle, you must study trends in demoscopy and the social mood.

Pablo Casado. TERM

Electoral demographic trends currently show that Pablo Casado’s PP has stagnated and that Vox is taking advantage of it. They also indicate an upward trend in the electoral spectrum of the left, probably boosted by the image and plans of Yolanda Díaz.

The sources maintain that beyond the strength of the brand, it is necessary to repair the strength of the candidate. Juanma Moreno is going through, from this point of view, a sweet moment, according to the surveys carried out in Andalusia. Citizens approve of his management and emphasize his moderation. It has also intentionally made the flag of the Andalusianism, which in the community is usually positive.

But the president worries that an unfavorable inertia of the PP harms him, and therefore, would see in this another reason to extend the legislature. A note: no matter how much Genoa presses, it is known that he prefers to overtake early to take advantage of Sánchez’s bad moment and stretch the winning inertia that was born in Madrid, Moreno has agreed with Casado that only he will make the decision and that the one he makes will be respected.

The state of Ciudadanos

However, among the arguments to precipitate all the calculations, the sources acknowledge that there is the internal situation of the PP partner in the Board.

Inés Arrimadas. TERM

The leak of Marín’s audio reveals that concord does not reign in the “orange” ranks. If the liberal formation explodes from the inside, and to this is added the opposition “in pincer” of PSOE and Vox, Moreno could press the advance button earlier than contemplated now.

It is not the preferred option. That is to take the legislature as far as it can and in any case call “early summer or early fall”, say the sources.

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