Friday, March 29

Kazakhstan: What is behind the riots and is a revolution brewing?


Kazakhstan is involved in the worst street protests since the country gained independence three decades ago with government buildings burned down and dozens of protesters killed.

Protests began in the southwestern oil city of Zhanaozen on January 2 over sharp increases in gas prices.

But they quickly spread across the country with demonstrations in Nur-Sultan and Almaty, the economic capital.

In an attempt to quell the unrest, the authorities first cut the price of gasoline.

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev later removed the entire government. He also declared a state of emergency in several areas, including Almaty, where there is a night curfew.

Later, Tokayev changed tack, describing the protesters as “terrorists” under “foreign” influence and demanding military backing from the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a Russian-led military alliance.

Authorities confirmed Thursday that “dozens” of protesters were killed and more than 1,000 injured in clashes with police.

Why are people angry?

Of the five Central Asian republics that gained independence after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan is by far the largest and richest.

It covers a territory the size of Western Europe and sits on colossal reserves of oil, natural gas, uranium and precious metals.

But while Kazakhstan’s natural riches have helped it cultivate a strong middle class, as well as a substantial cohort of ultra-wealthy tycoons, financial difficulties are widespread and the banking system has been the victim of deep crises precipitated by bad loans. As in much of the rest of the region, petty corruption is rampant.

Grievances have long raged in Zhanaozen and its wider area over the feeling that the region’s energy riches have not been fairly distributed among the local population.

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In 2011, police shot dead at least 15 people in the city protesting in support of oil workers fired after a strike.

When prices for the liquefied petroleum gas that most people in the area use to power their cars doubled overnight on Saturday, patience broke.

Do the protesters point their anger at the president of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev?

Suppressing critical voices in Kazakhstan has long been the norm. Any figure who aspires to oppose the government has been repressed, marginalized or co-opted. So while these demonstrations have been unusually large, some drew more than 10,000 people, a large number for Kazakhstan, no protest movement leader has emerged.

For most of Kazakhstan’s recent history, power was in the hands of former President Nursultan Nazarbayev. That changed in 2019 when Nazarbayev, now 81, stepped aside and anointed his former ally Tokayev as his successor. In his capacity as head of the security council that oversees the military and security services, Nazarbayev continued to maintain considerable influence over the country. Tokayev announced Wednesday that he would replace Nazarbayev as head of the security council.

Much of the anger shown in the streets in recent days was not directed against Tokayev, but against Nazarbayev, who is still considered the top ruler of the country. “Shal ket!” (“Old man, go away”) has become the main motto.

“People are tired of the schizophrenic arrangement of the current government in Kazakhstan, where no one knows exactly where decisions are made, whether in the administration of President Tokayev or in the administration of the first President Nazarbayev,” political analyst Arkady Dubnov told Euronews . .

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Tokayev’s concession on that front – Nazarbayev’s removal as head of the security council – is too little, too late, Dubnov suggested. “The people demand fundamental economic and political reforms. The people demand representation in parliament, freedom of expression and freedom of activity of political parties.”

The analyst described the ongoing events as “pre-revolutionary” with similarities to the Arab Spring and Ukraine’s Maidan movement in 2013.

Is the regime likely to be overthrown?

This is unknown territory for Kazakhstan. The country has seen major demonstrations before: in 2016, after the passage of a contentious land law. And again in 2019, after the controversial election that secured Tokayev’s control in power. But never anything on this scale.

In one of his public appeals on Wednesday, Tokayev vowed to carry out reforms and hinted that political liberalization might be possible. However, his darker comments towards the end of the day suggested that he would instead take a more repressive path.

Temur Umarov, a research consultant at the Carnegie Center in Moscow, told Euronews that “so far, the situation is not critical.”

“It seems to me that what is happening will not be the end of the current political regime. (…) Now we are only going to observe that type of negotiation between the protesters and the authorities. The authorities will make concessions, the protesters will tell them whether these concessions will be made to them. they are enough or not ”, he explained.

“The reforms are going to happen 100 percent. We have been seeing them for the last few years. It is a trend that would have happened without the protests, but now it will accelerate and the authorities will go for them even more. But” (the reforms) are Possible only if protests do not cross a line after which authorities believe they are at a standstill. And then we will see violence, “Umarov said.

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With street protests lacking focus, at least for now, it’s hard to see how they could end.

But even if they fail to overthrow the government, it seems possible that they will lead to a profound transformation.

What is unclear is what that might mean.


www.euronews.com

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