Monday, March 27

LSU vs. Arkansas prediction, odds, line, spread: 2022 SEC Tournament picks, best bets from proven model

The Arkansas Razorbacks take on the LSU Tigers on Friday in the third meeting between the teams this season. The matchup takes place in the quarterfinals of the 2022 SEC Tournament in Tampa. Arkansas is 2-0 against LSU this season, and the Razorbacks are 24-7 overall after 14 wins in the last 16 games. The Tigers are 22-10 overall, and LSU advanced with an opening-round win over Missouri on Thursday.

Caesars Sportsbook lists the Razorbacks as three-point favorites for this 2 pm ET typoff. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 142 in the latest LSU vs. Arkansas odds. Before making any Arkansas vs. LSU picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of almost $1,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on LSU vs. Arkansas, and just revealed its picks and CBB predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the college basketball odds and betting lines for Arkansas vs. LSU:

  • LSU vs. Arkansas spread: Arkansas -3
  • LSU vs. Arkansas over-under: 142 points
  • LSU vs. Arkansas money line: Arkansas -160, LSU +140
  • LSU: The Tigers are 9-10 against the spread in SEC games
  • ARK: The Razorbacks are 12-6 against the spread in SEC games
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Why LSU can cover

LSU’s defense is dominant. The Tigers rank in the top five of the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, signaling overall effectiveness. From there, LSU creates havoc, leading the nation with a 15.6 percent steal rate. The Tigers generate a turnover on 25.5 percent of defensive possessions, No. 3 in the country, and LSU blocks 14.9 percent of shot attempts, a top-10 national mark. Beyond havoc creation, LSU holds opponents to just 28.0 percent shooting from 3-point distance, No. 4 in the country, and Arkansas is a poor perimeter shooting team.

Arkansas is outside the top 275 of the nation in 3-point accuracy at 31.1 percent, and the Razorbacks are also shooting only 47.7 percent on 2-point attempts. On offense, LSU has a path to effectiveness on the offensive glass, with the Tigers grabbing 34.3 percent of their own missed shots this season. Arkansas is below-average in free-throw prevention, and LSU could generate increased efficiency at the charity stripe.

Why Arkansas can cover

The Razorbacks are clearly elite on the defensive end of the floor. Arkansas leads the SEC in adjusted defensive efficiency, and opponents have all kinds of trouble making shots against the Razorbacks. Arkansas is holding opponents to 45.3 percent shooting on 2-point attempts and 30.0 percent from 3-point range, and the Razorbacks are also in the top tier of the conference in forcing a turnover on 21.7 percent of defensive possessions.

Arkansas ranks above the national average in defensive rebound rate, steal rate and block rate, and Eric Musselman’s team is also very good on offense. The Razorbacks are firmly in the top 50 of the country in offensive efficiency, and Arkansas has top-two marks in the SEC in turnover rate and live-ball turnover prevention. Arkansas is also very good at the free-throw line, ranking in the top four of the SEC in free-throw creation and the Razorbacks are converting 75.1 percent of those shots.

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How to make Arkansas vs. LSU picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning leaning over on the total, projecting 145 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time. You can only get the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins LSU vs. Arkansas? And which side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up almost $1,600 on its top-rated college basketball spread picks over the last five-plus years, and find out.

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